L’objectif général de cette étude s’inscrit dans une analyse des rapports entre langue et économie pour les espaces linguistiques non francophones, à savoir les espaces anglophone, hispanophone, arabe et lusophone. Cette étude s’articulera autour de deux volets : 1 / apprécier la part que représente chacun de ces espaces dans la richesse mondiale et dans les échanges internationaux ; 2 / établir la part des échanges internationaux, de la richesse (produit intérieur brut par tête) et des emplois, générée par l’existence de chacun de ces espaces pour ses pays membres. Cette étude fait suite au rapport intitulé « Le poids économique de la langue française dans le monde » (2013) et offrira un point de comparaison en étendant ses estimations, fondées sur des critères et des indicateurs similaires, aux autres principaux espaces linguistiques.
This paper complements the cross-country approach by examining the correlates of GDP per capita growth acceleration around “significant” public expenditure episodes by reorganizing the data around turning points, or “events”. Here we define (i) a growth event as an increase in average per capita growth of at least 2 percentage points (pp) sustained for 5 years, (ii) fiscal event as an increase in the primary fiscal expenditure annual growth rate of approximately 1 pp sustained for 5 years and not accompanied by an aggravation of the fiscal deficit beyond 2% of GDP. These definitions of events are applied to database of 140 countries (118 developing countries) over 1972-2005, providing a summary but encompassing description of “what is in the data”. For this sample, the probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is about 10%, and, for a large range of parameter values for the selection of a “significant” event, the probability of a growth event once a fiscal event had occurred is in the 22%- 28% range. The probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is higher for the bottom half of the income distribution of countries, but the probability that this fiscal event is followed by a growth event is higher for the third quartile, corresponding to middle income countries (which are largely in Latin America). The probability of a fiscal event not followed by a growth event is significantly higher for the Middle East and Africa region. The description of the changes in expenditures components during fiscal events shows that, for developing countries, there are notable differences underlying fiscal events followed by growth events: they occur under situations of (i) significant lesser deficit, (ii) fewer resources devoted to non-interest General Public Services and (iii) shift in discretionary expenditures towards Transport & Communication. After controlling for the growth-inducing effects of positive terms-of-trade shocks and of trade liberalization reform, probit estimates indicate that a growth event is more likely to occur in a developing country when surrounded by a fiscal event. Moreover, the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the years following a fiscal event is greater the lower is the associated fiscal deficit, confirming that success of a growth-oriented fiscal expenditure reform hinges on a stabilized macroeconomic environment (through limited primary fiscal deficit).
We embed a model of the labor market with sector-specific search-and-matching frictions into a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods to show that trade liberalization causes higher unemployment in countries with comparative advantage in sectors with strong labor market frictions and leads to lower unemployment in countries with comparative advantage in sectors with weak labor market frictions. We test this prediction in a panel dataset of 97 countries during the period 1995-2009 and find that the data supports the theoretical prediction. Our results also help reconciliate the apparently contradicting evidence in the empirical literature on the impact of trade on unemployment.
Once again the Doha Round negotiators are struggling to reach an agreement, this time by mid-December 2011 on a “plan B” package that would give increased market access to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) under simplified rules of origin (RoO). We argue that in spite of some simplifying reforms by the EU and the US, administrative costs associated with establishing origin will continue to be sizeable, approximately equal to the effective market access left under “plan B”. Given the reluctance in the past for OECD countries to simplify their RoO, the note concludes that the meeting the December package is unlikely.
Trade liberalization is often believed to benefit urbanized regions more than rural regions. We explore the effects of trade liberalization on employment and wage growth of different sized towns within a country. A multi-region model of intranational adjustment predicts that small towns have more elastic labor-force responses to trade liberalization. We examine this predictions in finegrained regional data for Austria. The fall of the Iron Curtain in 1990 represented a large exogenous trade shock to the Austrian economy, providing us with a quasi-experimental setting for the exploration of trade-induced spatial effects. We find improved access to foreign markets to boost both employment and nominal wages, but large towns tended to have larger wage responses and smaller employment responses than small towns. In terms of aggregate income responses, the two effects cancel out: we find no statistically significant differences in the effects of trade liberalization on the wage bills of small and large towns.
We develop a multi-country, multi-sector, gravity model with trade frictions in the wake of Eaton and Kortum (2002) and Costinot, Donaldson and Komunjer (2012), which allows for labour market frictions as per Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides and long-term equilibrium unemployment level as in Helpman and Itskhoki (2010). We find that trade liberalisation may lead to a rise in unemployment if it results in labour reallocation towards sectors with higher-than-average labour market frictions. We calibrate the model using panel trade data and estimated sector-specific labour market frictions to evaluate the employment and welfare effects of the potential Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on US and EU employment rates.
Cet article se propose d’étudier les déterminants des dépenses publiques de santé dans les pays en développement en mettant plus particulièrement l’accent sur la contrainte financière extérieure, sur une dimension clé de la gouvernance, la corruption, et sur deux autres composantes de la situation socio-politique, l’agitation socio-politique et la dominance ethnique. On utilise pour ce faire une analyse économétrique sur données de panel pour un échantillon de 61 pays. En contrôlant pour le rôle d’autres facteurs, nos résultats confortent l’approche selon laquelle un allègement de la charge de la dette dans les pays pauvres très endettés (PPTE) doit favoriser une augmentation des dépenses publiques de santé. Mais ils ne fournissent pas d’éléments allant dans le sens d’un allègement indifférencié devant porter sur l’ensemble des pays en développement. Ils montrent également que la corruption et l’instabilité socio-politique constituent des environnements préjudiciables aux dépenses publiques de santé et suggèrent que les pays à forte dominance ethnique ont été plus attentifs à celles-ci que les autres. Par ailleurs, nos analyses ne permettent pas de conclure à une incidence significative de l’état de santé de la population sur les ressources publiques allouées à la santé.
On attend une plus grande intégration commerciale dans la région de Moyen Orient et Afrique du Nord suite à l'achèvement de l'accord sur la Zone Arabe de Libre Échange (ZALE) en 1998. Cependant, ses études récentes suggèrent que la région comprend à la fois des pays riches et des pays pauvres en ressources naturelles, comme dans la ZALE, les pays riches en ressources risquent de subir un détournement de commerce. Notre recherche empirique montre qu'il y a eu détournement de commerce dans le seul cas de la ZALE et, qu'effectivement, la principale source de détournement de commerce a été, pour les pays riches en ressources, la substitution des importations en provenance du reste du monde par des importations en provenance des pays partenaires pauvres en ressources. Ceci pourrait expliquer la réticence des pays riches en ressources à approfondir ce type d'accord.
This paper focuses on developing countries that export for the first time to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamic, linking exports experience and exports survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5 digit level for 114 developing countries on the 1962-2009 period, we show that prior exports experience obtained in non-OCDE markets increases survival in the OECD market. The effect of experience depreciates however rapidly with time: gaining experience for more than two years is worthless. Moreover, a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the benefit on survival. Geographic export dynamic reveals that experience is acquired in neighbor, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD. Where the experience is acquired does not however matter for survival.
Building on the experience of NAFTA, and assuming that rules of origin (RoO) negotiated under NAFTA are likely to resemble those that would be agreed upon in an FTAA, this paper discusses how different RoO criteria would affect different Southern partners in a multi-stage production setting. Next, we use a combination of parametric and non-parametric methods to estimate the costs of RoO under NAFTA for Mexican exports to US based on NAFTAís utilization rates and preference margins in the US market, at the HS-6 level. Finally, we carry out illustrative simulations for Southern producers to estimate the levels of RoO and tariff preference which leaves these producers indifferent to exporting to Northern members under the regional preferential tariff rate or the MFN rate.
