Publications des institutions partenaires
Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche and M. Hashem Pesaran: Forecasting the Swiss Economy Using VECX* Models: An Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Modelsand Observation Windows
This paper uses vector error correction models of Switzerland for forecasting output, inflation and the short-term interest rate. It considers three different ways of dealing with forecast uncertainties. First, it investigates the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models. Second, it considers averaging forecasts from different estimation...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Yvan Lengwiler and Carlos Lenz: Intelligible Factors for the Yield Curve
We construct a factor model of the yield curve and specify time series processes for these factors, so that the innovations are mutually orthogonal. At the same time, the factors are constructed in such a way that they assume clear, intuitive interpretations. The resulting "intelligible factors" should prove useful for investment professionals to discuss expectations about yield...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Martin Brown and Christian Zehnder: The Emergence of Information Sharing in Credit Markets
We examine how asymmetric information and competition in the credit market affect voluntary information sharing between lenders. We study an experimental credit market in which information sharing can help lenders to distinguish good borrowers from bad ones, ecause borrowers may exogenously switch locations. Lenders are, however, engaged in spatial competition, and thus may lose...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind: Safe Haven Currencies
We study high-frequency exchange rate movements over the sample 1993-2006. We document that the (Swiss) franc, euro, Japanese yen and the pound tend to appreciate against the U.S. dollar when (a) S&P has negative returns; (b) U.S. bond prices increase; and (c) when currency markets become more volatile. In these situations, the franc appreciates also against the other currencies...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Andreas M. Fischer, Matthias Lutz and Manuel Wälti: Who Prices Locally? Survey Evidence of Swiss Exporters
Survey information on Swiss exporters is used to test the hypothesis that firm-specific factors, in particular firm size, are important determinants of pricing-to-market (PTM). The survey asked exporters whether they set dif- ferent prices across markets and, if so, whether price segmentation occurred because of pricing conditions in the local market or other factors. The empirical...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Martin Brown, Tullio Jappelli and Marco Pagano: Information Sharing and Credit: Firm-Level Evidence from Transition Countries
We investigate whether information sharing among banks has affected credit market performance in the transition countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, using a large sample of firm-level data. Our estimates show that information sharing is associated with improved availability and lower cost of credit to firms. This correlation is stronger for opaque firms than...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Jean-Marc Natal and Nicolas Stoffels: Globalization, markups and the natural rate of interest
In this paper, we investigate how, in a stylised theoretical framework, an increase in the degree of globalization - modelled as a deline in trade costs - affects the real natural rate of interest by impacting firms markups. Outlining a two- country dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous elasticity of substitution between goods, we suggest two main propositions: 1)...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, Stefan Gerlach and Toshitaka Sekine: Monetary Factors and Inflation in Japan
Recently, the Bank of Japan outlined a two perspectives approach to the conduct of monetary policy that focuses on risks to price stability over different time horizons. Interpreting this as pertaining to different frequency bands, we use band spectrum regression to study the determination of inflation in Japan. We find that inflation is related to money growth and real output growth...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Lukas Burkhard and Andreas M. Fischer: Communicating Policy Options at the Zero Bound
This paper examines a special episode in communication practices of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) when short-term interest rates reached the zero bound. A particular feature of SNB communication policy at the time was to talk openly about alternative policy instruments despite the fact that they were never implemented. Non-sterilized FX interventions were frequently mentioned as a...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Angelo Ranaldo and Enzo Rossi: The reaction of asset markets to Swiss National Bank communication
In this paper we analyze high-frequency movements in Swiss financial markets in reaction to real-time communication by the Swiss National Bank. Our analysis of central bank communication encompasses official speeches and interviews, not only monetary policy announcements. We examine the reactions of the currency market, the bond market and the stock exchange. The evidence suggests...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Franziska Bignasca and Enzo Rossi: Applying the Hirose-Kamada filter to Swiss data: Output gap and exchange rate pass-through estimates
Multivariate filters based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter are appealing because they combine the advantages of the Hodrick-Prescott filter with economic relationships. Recently, a new multivariate filter has been put forward by Hirose and Kamada (2003). In this article we apply this new filter to Swiss data spanning the period from 1981 to 2005. We estimate both potential output and...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Raphael Anton Auer: The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: A Solution to the Debate on Settler Mortality Rates
I address David Albouy's (2006) critique of the data constructed by Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson (2001). The contribution of this paper is to instrument for settler mortality rates that are collected from historical sources - and that may be measured with error - with a geographic model of the determinants of disease. I first establish that my instruments are...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Hans-Jürg Büttler: An Orthogonal Polynomial Approach to Estimate the Term Structure of Interest Rates
In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm to estimate the term structure of interest rates. It is obtained from a constrained optimization, where the objective is to minimize the integral of squared first derivatives of the instantaneous forward interest rate subject to the condition that the estimated bond prices lie within the range of observed bid and ask prices. We use a finite...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Martin Brown, Maria Rueda Maurer, Tamara Pak and Nurlanbek Tynaev: Banking Sector Reform and Interest Rates in Transition Economies: Bank-Level Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
We examine the impact of banking sector reforms on interest rates using bank-level data from Kyrgyzstan for 1998-2005. We find that increased confidence in the banking sector has contributed significantly to lowering interest rate levels, while the impact of lower intermediation costs, credit risk, and capital costs are negligible. Our results further suggest that the liberalization...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch: Loss Aversion in Aggregate Macroeconomic Time Series
Prospect theory has been the focus of increasing attention in many Fields of economics. However, it has scarcely been addressed in macro-economic growth models - neither on theoretical nor on empirical grounds. In this paper we use prospect theory in a stochastic optimal growth model. Thereafter, the focus lies on linking the Eulerequation obtained from a prospect theory growth model...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Samuel Reynard: Maintaining Low Inflation: Money, Interest Rates, and Policy Stance
This paper examines the usefulness of considering monetary aggregates when assessing monetary policy stance, and contrasts monetary analysis to the current mainstream monetary policy analysis. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide quantitative information on subsequent price levels. Moreover, ignoring money and focusing on interest rates...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Jürg M. Blum: Why 'Basel II' May Need a Leverage Ratio Restriction
We analyze regulatory capital requirements where the amount of required capital depends on the level of risk reported by the banks. It is shown that if the supervisors have a limited ability to identify or to sanction dishonest banks, an additional risk-independent leverage ration restriction may be necessary to induce truthful risk reporting. The leverage ration helps to offset the...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Angelo Ranaldo: Segmentation and Time-of-Day Patterns in Foreign Exchange Markets
This paper sheds light on a puzzling pattern in foreign exchange markets: Domestic currencies appreciate (depreciate) systematically during foreign (domestic) working hours. These time-of-day patterns are statistically and economically highly significant. They pervasively persist across many years, even after accounting for calendar effects. This phenomenon is difficult to reconcile...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Ibrahim Chowdhury and Andreas Schabert: Federal Reserve Policy viewed through a Money Supply Lens
This paper examines whether the U.S. Federal Reserve has adjusted high-powered money supply in response to macroeconomic indicators. Applying ex-post and real-time data for the postwar period, we provide evidence that nonborrowed reserves responded to expected inflation and the output-gap. While the output-gap feedback has always been negative, the response of money supply to changes...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Andreas M. Fischer, Gulzina Isakova and Ulan Termechikov: Do FX traders in Bishkek have similar perceptions to their London colleagues? Survey evidence of market practitioners' views
We ask whether FX dealers from Kyrgyzstan, a low income country, have similar perceptions to FX dealers from other international financial centers. Perceptions of Kyrgyz FX dealers in the interbank market are tested using detailed survey data against survey information from five major financial centers. The survey evidence finds that the FX dealers' responses from the Kyrgyz...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
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