Publications des institutions partenaires
Marco Huwiler and Daniel Kaufmann: Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model
This study documents the SNB's ARIMA model based on disaggregated CPI data used to produce inflation forecasts over the short-term horizon, and evaluates its forecasting performance. Our findings suggest that the disaggregate ARIMA model for the Swiss CPI performed better than relevant benchmarks. In particular, estimating ARIMA models for individual CPI expenditure items and...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Andreas Kettemann and Signe Krogstrup: Portfolio balance effects of the SNB's bond purchase program
This paper carries out an empirical investigation of the impact on bond spreads of the announcement, purchases and exit from the SNB's bond purchase program in 2009-2010. We find evidence in favor of a narrowing yield spread of covered bonds as a result of the program. The effect materialized in the days following the announcement of the SNB's intention to buy bonds issued by private...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Katja Drechsel and Rolf Scheufele: Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
This paper presents a method to conduct early estimates of GDP growth in Germany. We employ MIDAS regressions to circumvent the mixed frequency problem and use pooling techniques to summarize efficiently the information content of the various indicators. More specifically, we investigate whether it is better to disaggregate GDP (either via total value added of each sector or by the...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Sébastien Philippe Kraenzlin and Thomas Nellen: Access policy and money market segmentation
We analyse deviations between interest rates paid in the Swiss franc unsecured money market and the respective Libor rate. First, banks that have access to the secured interbank market and the SNB's monetary policy operations pay less than banks without access. Second, domestically unchartered, foreign banks pay more than domestic banks. We find that these segmentations are limited...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Raphael Anton Auer, Thomas Chaney and Philip Ulrich Sauré: Quality Pricing-to-Market
We document that in the European car industry, exchange rate pass-through is larger for low than for high quality cars. To rationalize this pattern, we develop a model of quality pricing and international trade based on the preferences of Musa and Rosen (1978). Firms sell goods of heterogeneous quality to consumers that differ in their willingness to pay for quality. Each firm...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Thomas Nitschka: Global and country-specific business cycle risk in time-varying excess returns on asset markets
Deviations of national industrial production indexes from trend explain time variation in excess returns on the G7 countries' stock markets. This paper highlights that this finding is driven by a global, common component in the national production gaps. The global component is not a mirror image of the U.S. business cycle. Quite to the contrary, a "rest-ofthe-world" production gap...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Bo E. Honoré, Daniel Kaufmann and Sarah Marit Lein: Asymmetries in Price-Setting Behavior: New Microeconometric Evidence from Switzerland
In this paper we follow the recent empirical literature that has specified reduced-form models for price setting that are closely tied to (S, s)-pricing rules. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we propose an estimator that relaxes distributional assumptions on the unobserved heterogeneity. Second, we use the estimator to examine asymmetries in price-setting...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Romain Baeriswyl and Camille Cornand: Reducing overreaction to central banks' disclosures:theory and experiment
Financial markets are known for overreacting to public information. Central banks can reduce this overreaction either by disclosing information to a fraction of market participants only (partial publicity) or by disclosing information to all participants but with ambiguity (partial transparency). We show that, in theory, both communication strategies are strictly equivalent in the...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Christian Hott and Terhi Jokipii: Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates
In this paper we assess whether persistently too low interest rates can cause housing bubbles. For a sample of 14 OECD countries, we calculate the deviations of house prices from their (theoretically implied) fundamental value and define them as bubbles. We then estimate the impact that a deviation of short term interest rates from the Taylor-implied interest rates have on house...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Philip Ulrich Sauré and Hosny Zoabi: Retirement Age across Countries: The Role of Occupations
Cross-country variation in average retirement age is usually attributed to institutional differences that affect individuals' incentives to retire. We suggest a different approach. Since workers in different occupations naturally retire at different ages, the composition of occupations within an economy matters for its average retirement age. Using U.S. data we infer the average...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Martin Brown, Steven Ongena and Pinar Yesin: Information Asymmetry and Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms
We model the choice of loan currency in a framework which features a trade-off between lower cost of debt and the risk of firm-level distress costs. Under perfect information, if foreign currency funds come at a lower interest rate, all foreign currency earners as well as those local currency earners with high revenues and/or low distress costs choose foreign currency loans. When the...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Thomas Nitschka: Banking sectors' international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe
Cross-border asset and liability holdings allow countries to insulate their consumption streams from idiosyncratic output shocks, i.e. consumption risk sharing. By contrast, banks' international interconnectedness spread the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis to various economies with adverse macroeconomic consequences. This paper evaluates the partial impact of banks' cross-border links...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Matteo Bonato, Massimiliano Caporin and Angelo Ranaldo: Risk spillovers in international equity portfolios
We define risk spillover as the dependence of a given asset variance on the past covariances and variances of other assets. Building on this idea, we propose the use of a highly flexible and tractable model to forecast the volatility of an international equity portfolio. According to the risk management strategy proposed, portfolio risk is seen as a specific combination of daily...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Signe Krogstrup, Samuel Reynard and Barbara Sutter: Liquidity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Long-Term Interest Rates
This paper argues that the expansion in reserves following recent quantitative easing programs of the Federal Reserve may have affected long-term interest rates through liquidity effects. The data lends some support for liquidity effects, in that reserves were negatively correlated with long-term yields at the zero lower bound. Estimates suggest that between January 2009 and 2011, 10...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Raphael Anton Auer: Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi
This paper quantifies the effect of the government-controlled appreciation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-à-vis the USD from 2005 to 2008 on the prices charged by US producers. As the RMB during that time was pegged to a basket of currencies, the empirical strategy must account for the fact that the currencies included in the basket may have directly affected US prices. Thus, the...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Sébastien Philippe Kraenzlin and Benedikt von Scarpatetti: Bargaining Power in the Repo Market
In this paper, we analyze the price setting behavior of banks in the Swiss franc repo market by means of network topology concepts and measures. The sample ranges from October 1999 to December 2009. Hence, it covers a large part of the money market turmoil that started in August 2007. Among others, we find evidence that market participants use their bargaining power as well as...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Sylvia Kaufmann: K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions
Two Bayesian sampling schemes are outlined to estimate a K-state Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. The multinomial logit model for the transition probabilities is alternatively expressed as a random utility model and as a difference random utility model. The estimation uses data augmentation and both sampling schemes can be based on Gibbs sampling....
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Jürg Mägerle and Thomas Nellen: Interoperability between central counterparties
In reaction to recent requests for interoperability between central counterparties of European stock markets, regulators have issued new guidelines to contain systemic risk. Our analysis confirms that the currently applied cross-CCP risk management model can be a source of contagion, particularly if applied in multilateral frameworks. While regulators' new guidelines eliminate...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Massimiliano Caporin and Angelo Ranaldo: On the Predictability of Stock Prices: a Case for High and Low Prices
Contrary to the common wisdom that asset prices are hardly possible to forecast, we show that high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable. We propose to model them using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This model captures two fundamental patterns of high and low prices: their cointegrating...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
Raphael Anton Auer and Philip Ulrich Sauré: Spatial Competition in Quality, Demand-Induced Innovation, and Schumpeterian Growth
We develop a general equilibrium model of vertical innovation in which multiple firms compete monopolistically in the quality space. The model features many firms, each of which holds the monopoly to produce a unique quality level of an otherwise homogenous good, and consumers who are heterogeneous in their valuation of the good's quality. If the marginal cost of production is convex...
Institution partenaire
English / 27/04/2016
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