In this paper, we analyse the sources of economic growth in Switzerland during the period 1991-2005. The results suggest that labour input and capital input contribute 0.57 pp and 0.45 pp, respectively, to the average annual GDP growth of 1.28%. The remaining 0.25 pp represent growth in multi-factor productivity, which is calculated as a residual. The estimate of growth in multi-factor productivity is lower than in previous studies because our measure of labour input takes changes in labour quality into account. Changes in labour quality explain 0.39 pp of the 0.45 pp contribution from labour input.
Male and female labor are imperfect substitutes and some sectors are more suitable for female employment than others. Clearly, expansions of those sectors that use female labor intensively must affect aggregate female labor force participation (FLFP). We suggest that FLFP actually drops when trade and international specialization expand sectors that use female labor intensively. This effect arises because expansions of the former sectors come along with contractions of others. The latter contractions, in turn, induce male workers to move to the expanding sectors, driving female workers out of formal employment. Thus, a country that is exporting female labor content is actually substituting male labor for female. Finally, building on U.S.-Mexican trade data, we provide empirical evidence that support our argument.
This paper shows that transparency in banking can be harmful from a social planner's point of view. According to our model, enhancing transparency above a certain level may lead to the inefficient liquidation of a bank. The reason lies in the nature of a standard deposit contract: its payoff scheme has limited upside gains (cap) but leaves the depositor with the downside risk. Accordingly, depositors will not take into account possible future upside gains of the bank when deciding whether or not to withdraw their deposits. Our result points towards a trade-off the regulator faces: while enhancing transparency may be useful to reduce incentives for excessive risk-taking (moral hazard), it may also increase the risk of inefficient bank runs.
Recent trade data exhibit the following four empirical regularities: (i) countries import only a small fraction of all traded varieties (ii) per capita income and the number of imported varieties correlate positively (iii) per capita income and trade shares correlate positively and, finally, (iv) world trade shares have increased substantially. The present paper argues that standard theories fail to explain at least some of these patterns and subsequently shows that a small and reasonable change in the demand structure can reconcile the New Trade model with the data. Its key assumption imposes an upper bound on consumers' marginal utility from varieties. This implies that consumers purchase only the cheaper share of varieties, while expensive foreign varieties bearing high transport costs are not consumed. Technological progress that increases per capita consumption of those varieties in the consumption basket decreases marginal utility derived from them and induces consumers to extend their consumption to more expensive varieties produced at distant locations. Through this additional margin trade shares increase as productivity grows. Productivity growth is thus identified as a joint determinant of trade shares, the number imported varieties, and per capita income.
Building an unbalanced panel of United States (US) bank holding company (BHC) and commercial bank balance sheet data from 1986 to 2006, we examine the relationship between short-term capital buffer and portfolio risk adjustments. Our estimations indicate that the relationship over the sample period is a positive two-way relationship. Moreover, we show that the management of such adjustments is dependent on the degree of bank capitalization. Further investigation through time-varying analysis reveals a cyclical pattern in the uncovered relationship: negative after the 1991/1992 crisis, and positive before 1991 and after 1997.
The willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of their borrowers. Beside other factors, the creditworthiness of borrowers depends on the development of real estate prices. Real estate prices, in turn, depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by the willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases. In this paper I develop a theoretical model which describes and explains this circular relationship. Using this model, I show how different kinds of expectation formations can lead to fluctuations of real estate prices. Furthermore, I show that banks make above average profits in the upswing phase of the real estate cycle but suffer high losses when the market turns.
In order to protect themselves against the potential losses in case of a participant's default and to contain systemic risk, central counterparties (CCPs) need to maintain sufficient financial resources. Typically, these financial resources consist of margin requirements and contributions to a collective default fund. Based on a stylized model of CCP risk management, this article analyzes the main factors affecting the trade-off between margins and default fund. The optimal balance between these two risk management instruments is found to depend on collateral costs, participants' default probability, and the extent to which margin requirements are associated with risk-mitigating incentives. Given the increasing role of CCPs in financial markets in general and for financial stability in particular, these considerations are not only important for CCPs themselves, but also for financial regulators.
This paper analyses the interplay of capacity utilisation, capacity constraints, demand constraints and price adjustments, employing a unique firm-level data set for Swiss manufacturing firms. Theoretically, capacity constraints limit the ability of firms to expand production in the short run and lead to increases in prices. Our results show that, on the one hand, price increases are more likely during periods when firms are faced with capacity constraints. Constraints due to the shortage of labour, in particular, lead to price increases. On the other hand, we also find evidence that firms are not reluctant to reduce prices in response to demand constraints. At the macro level, the implied capacity-utilisation Phillips curve has a convex shape during periods of excess demand and a concave shape during periods of excess supply. Our results are robust to the inclusion of proxies for changes in costs and the competitive position of firms.
A comparison of fundamental house prices with actual prices indicates that house prices fluctuate more than fundamentally justified. This fact is very hard to explain with standard rational agent models. This paper develops a housing market model that allows to examine the price effects of various kinds of agents' expectations. In this framework I we show that the consideration of behavioural aspects like herding behaviour, speculation and momentum trading can help to explain actual house price fluctuations. Following the different approaches, agents overreact to fundamentals and are influenced by past price movements and returns.
Nominal and real U.S. interest rates (1997Q1-2008Q2) are combined with inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to calculate time series of risk premia. It is shown that survey data on inflation and output growth uncertainty, as well as a proxy for liquidity premia can explain a large amount of the variation in these risk premia.
