This paper provides an analysis of outsourcing and trade in a spatial model à la Hotelling. In this setting, we discuss the trade-off between transport-cost-related disadvantages and outsourcing-related production cost advantages of a large economy and we investigate how the existence of national transport costs influences both the structure of industrial production and the pattern of final goods trade. In addition, the model gives a rich picture of the possible welfare effects of trade liberalization. In particular, we show that a final goods exporting country definitely gains from economic integration, while a final goods importing country may lose. Finally, when lowering domestic outsourcing activities, trade liberalization may reduce world welfare, even if pro-competitive effects lead to a decline in consumer prices.
Recent developments, including the analysis of firm-level adjustment to falling trade costs, have contributed to a revival of interest in intra-industry trade (IIT). Most empirical work still relies on the standard Grubel–Lloyd measure. This however refers only to international trade, disregarding income flows stimulated by repatriated profits of multinational firms. Given the overwhelming importance of the latter, this is a major shortcoming. This paper provides a guide to measurement and estimation of the determinants of bilateral IIT shares from the perspective of new trade theory with multinational firms. We develop an analytically solvable general equilibrium model to investigate the impact of investment costs, multinational activities and income flows from repatriated profits. We also discuss and quantify the bias of the Grubel–Lloyd index associated with repatriated profit flows of multinationals. Using bias-corrected versions of the Grubel–Lloyd index as the dependent variable, we demonstrate that the determinants motivated by our theoretical analysis offer important insights into variations in IIT shares.
This article presents first insights into the role of international outsourcing on the productivity of low-skilled workers in EU manufacturing. Whereas in the short run international outsourcing exhibits a negative marginal effect on real value added per low-skilled worker, the long-run parameter estimates reveal a positive impact. This may be explained by imperfections in European labor and goods markets, which prohibit an immediate adjustment in the factor employment and the output structure. The change in the outsourcing intensity since 1993 alone acounts for a long-run increase of about 6.0% in the real value added per low-skilled worker.
In dynamic wage bargaining models it is usually assumed that individual unemployment benefits are a fraction of the average wage level. In most countries, however, unemployment benefits are instead tied to the previous level of individually earned wages. We show how the analysis has to be modified if this fact is taken into account and compare our findings for the wage-setting curve with outcomes under other unemployment compensation schemes. From this comparison it becomes evident how the shape and position of the wage-setting curve depends on the specification of the unemployment benefit system. We also demonstrate that a reduction of unemployment benefits of those who become unemployed after the bargaining period leads to higher equilibrium unemployment.
This paper sets up a model, where multinationals compete in quantities and domestic firms form a competitive fringe. Within this framework, we analyse the relationship between market concentration, international outsourcing and the industry price-cost margin. The empirical results of a panel of 66 industries and the EU12 countries in the 1990s strongly confirm our theoretical hypotheses. Market concentration and international outsourcing are positively related to industry price–cost margins. In a thought experiment, we show that industry price–cost margins would have decreased by 0.4 percentage points more in the 1990s, if international outsourcing had not changed since 1990. In addition, international outsourcing accounts for a convergence in margins across industries in the last decade.
This paper analyzes the causal relationships between marriage and subjective well-being in a longitudinal data set spanning 17 years. We find evidence that happier singles opt more likely for marriage and that there are large differences in the benefits from marriage between couples. Potential, as well as actual, division of labor seems to contribute to spouses’ well-being, especially for women and when there is a young family to raise. In contrast, large differences in the partners’ educational level have a negative effect on experienced life satisfaction.
We analyze an economy where firms undertake both innovation and adoption of technologies from the world technology frontier. The selection of high-skill managers and firms is more important for innovation than for adoption. As the economy approaches the frontier, selection becomes more important. Countries at early stages of development pursue an investment-based strategy, which relies on existing firms and managers to maximize investment but sacrifices selection. Closer to the world technology frontier, economies switch to an innovation-based strategy with short-term relationships, younger firms, less investment, and better selection of firms and managers. We show that relatively backward economies may switch out of the investment-based strategy too soon, so certain policies such as limits on product market competition or investment subsidies, which encourage the investment-based strategy, may be beneficial. However, these policies may have significant long-run costs because they make it more likely that a society will be trapped in the investment-based strategy and fail to converge to the world technology frontier.
A new decision theory is proposed to explain the violations of expected utility theory through the role of random errors. The main premise of the new theory is that individuals make random errors when they compute the expected utility of a risky lottery. When being distorted by error, the expected utility of a lottery should neither exceed the utility of the highest possible outcome nor fall below the utility of the lowest possible outcome. This crucial assumption implies that the expected utility of a lottery is likely to be overvalued (undervalued) by random errors, when it is close to the utility of the lowest (highest) possible outcome. The new theory explains many stylized empirical facts such as the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, the common consequence effect (Allais paradox), the common ratio effect and violations of betweenness. The model fits the data from ten well-known experimental studies at least as well as cumulative prospect theory.
This paper reviews the recent theoretical and empirical literature that relates education to growth, and draws some lessons for the Swedish experience. First, the “human capital accumulation” approach is discussed: agents decide, at each moment of their lives, to forego time or resources to improve their future productivity. The quality of the educational system is argued to be a crucial determinant of the decision to invest in human capital and of the growth rate of the economy. Hence, qualified teachers and appropriate incentive schemes within the schooling sectors are important for the long-run performance of the economy. Next, the trade-off between basic innovation (promoted by a restricted subset of economic activities) and learning-by-doing (which occurs at a more diffuse level in the economy) is analysed. It is argued that the former can be fostered by investments in “elite” research institutions, while the latter depends on the average educational attainment of the working population. Finally, the relationship between education, growth and inequality is discussed. The second part of the paper analyses recent trends in educational attainments in Sweden. Data show that enrolment rates in tertiary education in Sweden have lagged behind the major industrialised countries during the 1980s. Quantitatively, however, this is unlikely to be a major explanation of the productivity slowdown experienced by Sweden after 1970. But it is emphasised that (i) low educational premiums may harm incentives for people to invest in human capital; and (ii) low relative wages and low-power incentive schemes for teachers may cause a deterioration in the quality of education with negative effects on long-run growth.
Elicitation methods in decision-making under risk allow us to infer the utilities of outcomes as well as the probability weights from the observed preferences of an individual. An optimally efficient elicitation method is proposed, which takes the inevitable distortion of preferences by random errors into account and minimizes the effect of such errors on the inferred utility and probability weighting functions. Under mild assumptions, the optimally efficient method for eliciting utilities and probability weights is the following three-stage procedure. First, a probability is elicited whose subjective weight is one half. Second, the utility function is elicited through the midpoint chaining certainty equivalent method using the probability elicited at the first stage. Finally, the probability weighting function is elicited through the probability equivalent method.
