"The most influential theory of corporate governance, principal agency theory, does not take intonconsideration that the key task of modern corporations is to generate and transfer firm-specific knowledge. It proposes that, in order to overcome the widespread corporate scandals, the interests of top management and directors should be increasingly aligned to shareholder interests by making the board more responsible to shareholders, and strengthening the monitoring of top management by independent outside directors. Corporate governance reform needs to go in another direction altogether. Firm-specific knowledge investments are, like financial investments, not ex ante contractible, leaving investors open to exploitation by shareholders. Employees therefore refuse to make firm-specific investments. To gain a sustainable competitive advantage, there must be an incentive to undertake such firm-specific investments. Three proposals are advanced to deal with this conflict: (1) The board should rely more on insiders. (2) The insidersnshould be elected by those employees of the firm making firm-specific knowledge investments.(3) The board should be chaired by a neutral person. These proposals have major advantages: they provide incentives for knowledge investors; they countervail the dominance of executives; they encourage intrinsic work motivation and loyalty to the firm by strengthening distributive andnprocedural justice, and they ensure diversity on the board while lowering transaction costs. These proposals for reforming the board may help to overcome the crisis corporate governance is in. At the same time, they connect agency theory with the knowledge-based theory of the firm."
Typical of the AIDS epidemics is that governments in developing countries under-invest inndrugs production because of the possible appearance of a curative vaccine. We design a set ofnfinancial tools allowing to hedge against this event and achieving full risk-sharing. We shownthat the introduction of those assets increase social welfare in developing countries, as well asnthe number of treated patients and the provision of public good.
Inspired by findings of low–dimensional nonlinearities and the Theorem of Takens (1983) forecasting models of financial time series are often built upon nonparametric, i.e. universal nonlinear, univariate relationships. Empirical investigations, however, are seriously contaminated by the problem of overfitting. Since statistical model selection theory in the nonlinear case is still in its infancy we would like to suggest the application of economic model selection criteria. It is a method of combining the flexibility of nonparametric regressions and important structural information in dynamic economic models. Therefore, conditions of economic models are imposed on the embedded nonlinear dynamical system to be estimated nonparametrically. In our empirical investigations we apply an univariate nonparametric forecasting model of stock returns, implemented via the Local Linear Maps of Ritter (1991), by an economic model selection criterion based on a discretized form of a continuous–time dynamic model on the interaction of real activity and asset markets. The dynamic economic model is estimated based on the Maximum Entropy inference since unobservable variables are involved. Results for monthly U.S. data show that nonparametric model selection is improved by this economic model selection criterion. On the other hand this result may be interpreted as support for the economic model.
Economic research of the last decade linking macroeconomic fundamentals to asset prices has revealed evidence that standard intertemporal asset pricing theory is not successful in explaining (unconditional) first moments of asset market characteristics such as the risk-free interest rate, equity premium and the Sharpe-ratio. Subsequent empirical research has pursued the question whether those characteristics of asset markets are time varying and, in particular, varying over the business cycle. Recently intertemporal asset pricing models have been employed to replicate those time varying characteristics. The aim of our contribution is (1) to relax some of the assumptions that previous work has imposed on underlying economic and financial variables, (2) to extend the solution technique of Marcet and Den Haan (1990) for those models by nonparametric expectations and (3) to propose a new estimation procedure based on the above solution technique. To allow fornnonparametric expectations in the expectations approach for numerically solving the intertemporal economic model we employ the Local Linear Mapsn(LLMs) of Ritter, Martinetz and Schulten (1992) to approximate conditional expectations in the Euler equation. In our estimation approach based on non-parametric expectations we are able to use full structural information and,nconsequently, Monte Carlo simulations show that our estimations are less biased than the widely applied GMM procedure. Based on quarterly U.S. data we also empirically estimate structural parameters of the model and explore its time varying asset price characteristics for two types of preferences, power utility and habit persistence. We in particular focus on the Sharpe-ratio and find indication that the model is able to capture the time variation of thenSharpe-ratio.
"The most fundamental solution concepts in Game Theory – Nash equilibrium, backward induction, and iterated elimination of dominated strategies – are based on the assumption that people are capable of predicting others' actions. These concepts require people to be able to view the game from the other players’ perspectives, i.e. to understand others’ motives and beliefs. Economists still know little about what enables people to put themselves into others’nshoes and how this ability interacts with their own preferences and beliefs. Social neuroscience provides insights into the neural mechanism underlying our capacity to represent others' intentions, beliefs, and desires, referred to as ""Theory of Mind"" or ""mentalizing"", and the capacitynto share the feelings of others, referred to as ""empathy"". We summarize the major findings about the neural basis of mentalizing and empathizing and discuss some implications for economics."
This paper discusses recent neuroeconomic evidence related to other-regarding behaviors and the decision to trust in other people’s other-regarding behavior. This evidencensupports the view that people derive nonpecuniary utility (i) from mutual cooperation in socialndilemma (SD) games and (ii) from punishing unfair behavior. Thus, mutual cooperation and the punishment of free riders in SD games is not irrational, but better understood as rationalnbehavior of people with corresponding social preferences. We also report the results of anrecent study that examines the impact of the neuropeptide Oxytocin (OT) on trusting andntrustworthy behavior in a sequential SD. Animal studies have identified Oxytocin as anhormone that induces prosocial approach behavior, suggesting that it may also affect prosocialnbehavior in humans. Indeed, the study shows that subjects given Oxytocin exhibit much morentrusting behavior, suggesting that OT has a direct impact on certain aspects of subjects’ social preferences. Interestingly, however, although Oxytocin affects trusting behavior, it has no effect on subjects’ trustworthiness.
"Recent monetary models with explicit microfoundations are made tractable by assumingnthat agents have access to centralized markets after one round of decentralized trade. Given quasi-linear preferences, this makes the distribution of money degenerate — which keeps the models simple but precludes discussion of distributional effects of monetary policy. We generalize these models by assuming two rounds of trade before agents can readjust their money holdings to study a range of new distributional effects analytically. We show that unexpected symmetric lump-sum money injections may increase short-run output and welfare,nwhile asymmetric injections may increase long-run output and welfare."
This paper investigates the design of incentives in a dynamic adverse selection framework when agents’ production technologies display learning effects and agents’ rate of learning is private knowledge. In a simple two-period model with full commitment available to the principal, we show that whether learning effects are over- or under-exploited crucially depends on whether learning effects increase or decrease the principal’s uncertainty about agents’ costs of production. Hence, what drives the over- or under-exploitation of learning effects is whether more efficient agents also learn faster (so costs diverge through learning effects) or whether it is the less efficient agents who learn faster (so costs converge). Furthermore, we show that if divergence in costs through learning effects is strong enough, learning effects will not be exploited at all, in a sense to be made precise.
Recent advances in the econometric modelling of count data have often been based on the generalized method of moments (GMM). However, the two-step GMM procedure may perform poorly in small samples, and several empirical likelihood-based estimators have been suggested alternatively. In this paper I discuss empirical likelihood (EL) estimation for count data models with endogenous regressors. I carefully distinguish between parametric and semi-parametric methods and analyze the properties of the EL estimator by means of a Monte Carlo experiment. I apply the proposed method to estimate the effect of women’s schooling on fertility.
We consider a repeated stochastic coordination game with imperfect public monitoring. In the game any pattern of coordinated play is a perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Moreover, standard equilibrium selection argumentsneither have no bite or they select an equilibrium that is not observed in actual plays of the game. We give experimental evidence for a unique equilibrium selection and explain this very robust finding by equilibrium selection based on behavioral arguments, in particular focal point analysis,nprobability matching and over-confidence. Our results have interesting applicationsnin finance because the observed equilibrium exhibits momentum,nreversal and excess volatility. Moreover, the results may help to explain why technical analysis is a commonly observed investment style.
