We investigate the pricing of convertible bonds on the French convertible bond market using daily market prices for a period of 18 months. Instead of a firm-value model as used in previous studies, we use a stock-based binomial-tree model with exogenous credit risk that accounts for all important convertible bond specifications and is therefore well suited for pricing convertible bonds. The empirical analysis shows that the theoretical values for the analyzed convertible bonds are on average more than 3% higher than the observed market prices. This result applies to both the standard convertibles and the exchangeable bonds in our sample. The difference between market and model prices is greater for out-of-the-money convertibles than for at- or in-the-money convertibles. A partition of the sample according to maturity indicates that there is a positive relationship between underpricing and maturity with decreasing mispricing for bonds with shorter time to maturity.
We propose and empirically study a pricing model for convertible bonds based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method uses parametric representations of the early exercise decisions and consists of two stages. Pricing convertible bonds with the proposed Monte Carlo approach allows us to better capture both the dynamics of the underlying state variables and the rich set of real-world convertible bond specifications. Furthermore, using the simulation model proposed, we present an empirical pricing study of the US market, using 32 convertible bonds and 69 months of daily market prices. Our results do not confirm the evidence of previous studies that market prices of convertible bonds are on average lower than prices generated by a theoretical model. Similarly, our study is not supportive of a strong positive relationship between moneyness and mean pricing error, as argued in the literature.
This paper examines the performance of US mutual funds investing primarily in convertible bonds. Although convertible-bond funds are popular investment vehicles, their return process is not well understood. We contribute an analysis of the complete universe of US convertible-bond funds proposing a set of multi-factor models for the return generating process. In spite of the well-known hybrid nature of convertible bonds, the return process of convertible-bond funds cannot be fully explained by factors typically related to stock and bond markets. Thus, we consider additional variables accounting for the option-like character of convertible bonds. Surprisingly, multivariate cross-sectional analyses show the existence of a significant positive relationship between a fund's performance and its asset composition. Similar to Agarwal et al. (2006) we show that this result can be explained by factors related to investment opportunities in the convertible-bond market and trading strategies related to convertible arbitrage, as typically performed by hedge funds. Overall, convertible-bond funds have a performance as measured by alpha that is comparable to passive investment strategies in stocks, bonds, and convertible bonds. This average performance is the result of weak selection skills and successful timing of strategies related to convertible arbitrage.
The article examines strategies for making financial investments by using a decomposition of the non-central tracking error variance to indicate how actively assets are managed. This method examines how much risk the asset manager takes in investments by analyzing positive and negative returns. Two mathematical models are presented to analyze the active management of investments. The authors believe that their decomposition method and tracking error variance generate data that is not formally found by traditional analysis methods.
This article presents the first detailed analysis of the intra-day characteristics of idiosyncratic stock price crashes. The analysis focuses on the impact of large crashes in single stocks on their intra-day returns and liquidity in the US market. Furthermore, optimal intra-daily behavior during crashes is studied. Crashes are found to happen rather quickly, usually during a time interval of a few hours. In general, a strong increase in trading activity is observed during a crash, indicating that investors are able to sell their stocks even in distressed markets. The level of liquidity change is linked to the size of the crash. However, there is little evidence that the large sales volume during a crash drives down stock prices. After a stock price crash a significant momentum effect is found for several hours. Stock price crashes appear to reduce information asymmetries.
We conduct an event study to investigate the processing of information and the existence of insider trading on the Swiss stock market. Although Swiss laws are less restrictive than those of other countries, we find the empirical evidence for systematic insider trading before the publication of information to be fairly weak. Even for information producing large positive or negative returns upon publication, no statistically significant run-up returns can be detected. Regarding the processing of information, the Swiss market appears to be rather slow in incorporating new information into stock prices. We find significantly abnormal returns for approximately four days following the date of the publication of price-relevant information. Information with a large price impact seems to be processed faster than information with a small impact. The market value of a firm seems to have only a limited impact on the processing of information. Whereas the price impact of information is larger for small firms, the speed of information processing is not.
This article finds strong evidence for the presence of the disposition effect among US mutual fund managers. The analysis can establish a link between the disposition effect and mutual fund characteristics as well as changes in the macroeconomic environment. Managers with a lower disposition effect are found to invest in larger equities with a higher trade volume, a higher past performance, lower idiosyncratic risk, and a higher risk-adjusted performance. However, fund characteristics and the economic environment can only explain a limited amount of the variation in the disposition effect across mutual funds. Using a new methodology to reduce the disposition effect exhibited by mutual fund investments, we find no increase in their profitability. Although statistically significant, the disposition effect has only a minor economic effect on fund performance
