In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.
The monetary policy preferences of a population are often explained by the country’s economic history. Based on Swiss data, this paper indicates that while different language groups may share the economic history, they demonstrate distinct monetary policy preferences. This suggests that distinct monetary policy preferences among the populations of different countries may be determined by not only their economic histories but also their distinct cultural backgrounds.
While the central bank observes market activity to assess economic fundamentals, it shapes the market outcome through the conduct of monetary policy. A dilemma arises from this dual role because the more the central bank shapes the market, the more it influences the informational content of market prices. This paper analyses the optimal monetary policy action and disclosure when central bank information is endogenous for three operational frameworks: pure communication, action and communication, and signalling action. Although taking the endogenous nature of central bank information into account calls for less activism from the central bank, full transparency remains optimal when the weight assigned to price dispersion in social welfare takes on its micro-founded value.
