Université de Zürich - Faculté des sciences économiques

External spillovers, internal spillovers and the geography of production and innovation

Description: 

We consider a three-location duopoly model such that (i) firms choose production and innovation locations before (Bertrand) competition takes place and (ii) there are internal and external knowledge spillovers. We show: (1) agglomerations where firms earn negative profits may exist when there are both external and internal knowledge spillovers; (2) greater external spillovers do not necessarily favor agglomeration; (3) decreasing communication costs tend to favor agglomeration; (4) there are exactly two types of agglomeration equilibria: either both firms innovate in the agglomeration, or there is an innovator and an imitator; and (5) if there is a location where both firms produce, then innovation must take place in this location.

What is the “duration” of Swiss direct real estate?

Description: 

Purpose – Computing the duration of real estate assets is a challenging task due to the particularities of the property market. This paper aims to develop an empirical model to compute the interest-rate sensitivity of direct real estate assets in the Swiss multifamily housing market.

Design/methodology/approach – An aggregated total return index is used to empirically estimate the interest-rate sensitivity of the underlying assets in a dynamic DCF model. No instantaneous change is computed but a long-run price adjustment.

Findings – The long-run sensitivity is computed to be roughly 4.5 per cent. The value is found to be statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. The model is estimated over two different time periods and the estimate remains significant over both periods with value changing marginally. Potential reliance of trends when forming expectations is found to be present.

Research limitations/implications – One limitation is that the computed value is valid for a portfolio having a similar composition with the index used for the empirical estimation.

Practical implications – The value of the interest-rate sensitivity places Swiss direct real estate assets within the European range. The value may be used to compute the risk-based capital of an institutional investor in as far as the portfolio is similar in composition with the index.

Originality/value – The use of the dynamic DCF model allows one to split the changes in asset prices in changes from interest-rates and changes from cashflows. No value was previously available for the market of Swiss multifamily properties.

Legal and economic aspects of best execution in the context of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID)

Description: 

This paper explores the implications for investment firms and clients that arise out of an interpretation of the Market in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) best execution requirements from a law and economics perspective. While best execution is often framed as a matter of investor protection, research on market microstructure suggests that there is, in fact, an efficiency rationale (and not only a distributional rationale) for having some degree of best execution regulation. In terms of the specific rules of MiFID, the analysis reveals that an investment firm’s best execution policy will play a central role. MiFID’s best execution concept is process- based, ie investment firms need to show that they took measures leading to best execution in expectation; actual best execution is not required. The paper also discusses current issues such as the form of the execution policy and the appropriate number of execution venues.

An industrial organisation approach to the too-big-to-fail problem

Description: 

This article suggests a reform of the organisation of money markets that would largely eliminate the risk
of contagion. The notion of “systemically important institution” would be replaced by that of systemically
important platform”. Such platforms would only be directly accessible to a group of “offi cially recognised
fi nancial institutions” that would have to comply with special regulatory requirements and would be directly
supervised by the central bank. The status of “offi cially recognised fi nancial institution” could be revoked by
the central bank if these special regulatory requirements are not satisfi ed. A special resolution procedure
would be created for these institutions, so that the central bank has the legal powers to close it down, or
at least restrict its activities before it is too late. OTC markets would still be active but, since they would
be penalised by regulation, it is likely that they would become small, and therefore not in a position to
jeopardise the entire system.

Behavioural Finance and Investment Advice

Solving the Multi-Country Real Business Cycle Model using a Smolyak-Collocation Method

Description: 

We describe a sparse-grid collocation method to compute recursive solutions of dynamic economies with a sizable number of state variables. We show how powerful this method can be in applications by computing the non-linear recursive solution of an international real business cycle model with a substantial number of countries, complete insurance markets and frictions that impede frictionless international capital flows. In this economy, the aggregate state vector includes the distribution of world capital across different countries as well as the exogenous country-specific technology shocks. We use the algorithm to efficiently solve models with up to 10 countries (i.e., up to 20 continuous-valued state variables).

Credit card interchange fees

Description: 

We build a model of credit card pricing that explicitly takes into account credit functionality. In the model a monopoly card network always selects an interchange fee that exceeds the level that maximizes consumer surplus. If regulators only care about consumer surplus, a conservative regulatory approach is to cap interchange fees based on retailers’ net avoided costs from not having to provide credit themselves. This always raises consumer surplus compared to the unregulated outcome, sometimes to the point of maximizing consumer surplus.

Balancing the Banks: Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Description: 

The financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including sound guidelines for the ways in which distressed banks might be dealt with in the future.
While some recent policy moves go in the right direction, others, the book argues, are not sufficient to prevent another crisis. The authors show the necessity of an adaptive prudential regulatory system that can better address financial innovation. Stressing the numerous and complex challenges faced by politicians, finance professionals, and regulators, and calling for reinforced international coordination (for example, in the treatment of distressed banks), the authors put forth a number of principles to deal with issues regarding the economic incentives of financial institutions, the impact of economic shocks, and the role of political constraints.
Offering a global perspective, Balancing the Banks should be read by anyone concerned with solving the current crisis and preventing another such calamity in the future.

Assessing and improving the performance of nearly efficient unit root tests in small samples

Description: 

The development of unit root tests continues unabated, with many recent contributions using techniques such as generalized least squares (GLS) detrending and recursive detrending to improve the power of the test. In this article, the relation between the seemingly disparate tests is demonstrated by algebraically nesting all of them as ratios of quadratic forms in normal variables. By doing so, and using the exact sampling distribution of the ratio, it is straightforward to compute, examine, and compare the test' critical values and power functions. It is shown that use of GLS detrending parameters other than those recommended in the literature can lead to substantial power improvements. The open and important question regarding the nature of the first observation is addressed. Tests with high power are proposed irrespective of the distribution of the initial observation, which should be of great use in practical applications.

CHICAGO: A fast and accurate method for portfolio risk calculation

Description: 

This paper shows how independent component analysis can be used to estimate the generalized orthogonal GARCH model in a fraction of the time otherwise required. The proposed method is a two-step procedure, separating the estimation of the correlation structure from that of the univariate dynamics, thus facilitating the incorporation of non-Gaussian innovations distributions in a straightforward manner. The generalized hyperbolic distribution provides an excellent parametric description of financial returns data and is used for the univariate fits, but its convolutions, necessary for portfolio risk calculations, are intractable. This restriction is overcome by saddlepoint approximations for the Value at Risk and expected shortfall, which are computationally cheap and retain excellent accuracy far into the tails. It is further shown that the mean-expected shortfall portfolio optimization problem can be solved efficiently in the context of the model. A simulation study and an application to stock returns demonstrate the validity of the procedure.

Pages

Le portail de l'information économique suisse

© 2016 Infonet Economy

Souscrire à RSS - Université de Zürich - Faculté des sciences économiques