Youth unemployment and disengagement from both education and work are negatively associated with levels of completed education and skill proficiency. Recent research highlights the importance of focusing on the quality of education and improving actual learning outcomes for all. Empirical findings show the central importance of preventive strategies targeted towards disadvantaged families such as early childhood interventions and remedial strategies for those young adults who experience youth unemployment.
It is increasingly claimed that unconventional monetary policies are subject to decreasing effectiveness in supporting growth and raising the inflation rate. There are good reasons to believe that the effects of further asset purchases by central banks and of moving the interest rate deeper in negative territory progressively decline. But has it been happening? This paper attempts to provide an answer. Looking at the Eurozone, the UK, the US and Japan, it uses different approaches (linear projection and Bayesian VAR) on different sub-samples. The evidence is mixed: interest rates seem to be subject to the decreasing effectiveness hypothesis, QE less so.
Few would dispute that sovereign defaults entail significant economic costs, including, most notably, important output losses. However, most of the evidence supporting this conventional wisdom, based on annual observations, suffers from serious measurement and identification problems. To address these drawbacks, we examine the impact of default on growth by looking at quarterly data for emerging economies. We find that, contrary to what is typically assumed, output contractions precede defaults. Moreover, we find that the trough of the contraction coincides with the quarter of default, and that output starts to grow thereafter, indicating that default episode seems to mark the beginning of the economic recovery rather than a further decline. This suggests that, whatever negative effects a default may have on output, those effects result from anticipation of a default rather than the default itself.
This paper synthesizes previous studies analyzing the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth while controlling for financial crises, domestic financial development and the strength of institutions. We find reasonably strong evidence that financial openness has positive effects on the growth of financially-dependent industries, although these growth-enhancing effects evaporate during financial crises. Further analysis indicates that the positive effects of capital account liberalization are limited to countries with relatively well-developed financial systems, good accounting standards, strong creditor rights and rule of law. It suggests that countries must reach a certain threshold in terms of institutional and economic development before they can expect to benefit from capital account liberalization.
In April 2010, Greece became the first euro area country to request financial support from the IMF. The IMF joined the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB)—thus constituting what informally came to be known as the troika—in providing emergency financing, with the Fund’s contribution taking the form of a €30 billion three-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) approved in May. The sheer scale of financial commitments and the constraints imposed by the exceptional circumstances under which the Fund was called upon to provide financing for Greece raise questions about the modalities of Fund’s engagement and the design of the program. This paper assesses the IMF’s experience with surveillance and financial assistance in the context of the SBA, to draw lessons that can serve as a basis for debate and reform initiatives for the IMF’s future operational work.
Using a unique dataset collected in 59 rural Gambian villages, we study how ethnic heterogeneity is related to the structure of four economic exchange networks: land, labor, inputs and credit. We find that different measures of village-level ethnic fragmentation are mostly uncorrelated with network structure. At a more disaggregated level, household heads belonging to ethnic minorities are not less central than those from the predominant ethnicity in any of the networks and, at the dyadic level, the fact that two households share ethnicity is not an economically significant predictor of link formation. Our results indicate that, in the particular setting of our study, the structure of the exchange networks is better defined by other variables than ethnicity, and that ethnic heterogeneity is unlikely to be a driver for sub-optimal economic exchanges. We argue that our findings can be interpreted in a causal way as the current distribution of ethnic groups in rural Gambia is largely influenced by specific historical features of the British colonial administration. Moreover, the network structure of our data allow us to include fixed effects at different levels as well as to precisely measure kinship ties, a confounding variable often omitted in previous studies.
We extend the celebrated Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) definition of Mean Preserving Spreads to scalar diffusion processes. We provide sufficient conditions under which a family of diffusion processes satisfies the dynamic counterparts to the famous Rothschild and Stiglitz integral conditions. We prove that the only Brownian bridge with non-constant drift that displays the Dynamic Mean-Preserving Spread (DMPS) property is given by the ballistic super-diffusive process. We illustrate our results in the context of the cannonical examples of investment under uncertainty and option pricing.
The increase in the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere in the last centuries, and the subsequent increase in temperature, has been a widely studied area in the last few decades. Climate change has become a key item on the political agenda due to concerns regarding the sustainability of current human consumption for future generations. Consumption of food and agricultural goods constitutes an important part of household based GHG emissions, and the relatively low costs associated with environmental improvements make it an interesting area of study to understand behavioural changes. Despite general agreement on the need to curb the amount of GHG emissions worldwide, little evidence exists regarding the best instruments policymakers can employ to stimulate changes toward more sustainable consumption. The present work explores which instruments are most effective in fostering change to more environmentally friendly food consumption. The instruments tested are CO2 labelling, GHG abatement subsidy and product-specific bans. We used a simulated online shopping trip in supermarkets in the Greater London area in the United Kingdom, where respondents shopped in four product categories: cola, milk, meat (chicken and beef), and butter/margarine. Consumer preferences reveal that, in the presence of these instruments, quantity instruments performed better than price incentives and labelling.
