We conduct an empirical investigation of the determinants of the Swiss franc real exchange rate. Theory and related empirical papers suggest various specific factors as potential determinants. We select some of these factors, and test their significance and magnitude in affecting the course of the CHF real exchange rate. Results stemming from a co-integration approach point to terms of trade and relative government spending as the most significant explanatory variables. Balassa-Samuelson effects do not play any significant role. Our results also confirm that this kind of empirical approach is sensitive to the choice of explanatory variables, panel countries and sample periods. In our case, the importance of GDP per capita and net foreign assets as explanatory variables depends on the inclusion in the panel of the JPY/CHF exchange rate.
This paper explores the robustness of behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) models, focusing on a panel specification with Swiss franc real bilateral rates as dependent variables. We use Bayesian model averaging to illustrate model uncertainty, and employ real exchange rates computed from price level data to explore robustness to the inclusion or exclusion of fixed effects. We find that the estimated coefficients - and therefore also the implied equilibrium values - are sensitive to (1) the combination of explanatory variables included in the model, (2) the set of currencies included in the panel and (3) the inclusion of fixed effects. Increases in government consumption and net foreign assets and improvements in the terms of trade in Switzerland relative to foreign countries are associated with a Swiss franc real appreciation, as predicted by economic theory. By contrast, several macroeconomic variables commonly thought to be linked to real exchange rates are found not to exhibit a robust relationship with Swiss franc real rates. Our findings can help policymakers in understanding the uncertainty associated with estimates of equilibrium exchange rates.
This study describes a compact dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model fitted for the Swiss economy with Bayesian techniques. The model features two economies (small home economy, large foreign economy), five types of agents (households, producers of tradables, producers of non-tradables, retailers, monetary authority), nominal and real frictions, and a number of shocks. The study gives details on the specification and the estimation of the model. The evaluation is based on impulse responses and variance decompositions, a DSGE-VAR to assess misspecifications, and results of forecasting experiments. The model is one of the tools used for policy analysis and forecasting at the Swiss National Bank.
In this empirical study, we analyze the relationship between carry trade positions and some key financial as well as macroeconomic variables using a multivariate threshold model. It is often stated that the Swiss franc serves as a funding currency. We therefore focus on carry trades based on the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF currency pairs over the period from 1995 to mid-2008. We conclude that carry trades are driven to a large extent by changes in investors' risk sentiment, movements in stock market prices and exchange rate fluctuations. The adjustments of carry trade positions to unexpected movements in these variables vary between periods of high and low interest-rate differentials (IRD). While a positive shock to the IRD is followed by a rise in carry trade positions during a period of low IRD, it will trigger a decline in these positions during a period of high IRD. These results suggest that the shock to the IRD itself is not enough to compensate investors for the increased foreign exchange risk. Moreover, a positive stock market price shock is associated with a rise in carry trade positions, since investors may use stock portfolios as collateral for liquidity. A sudden unwinding of carry trades leads to significant Swiss franc appreciation. Furthermore, carry trade activities 'Granger-cause' the nominal exchange rate in periods of low IRD. The Granger causality test results further indicate feedback trading.
Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater co-movement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that both producer price and consumer price inflation rates move more closely together between those Asian economies that trade more with one another, ie that share a higher degree of trade intensity. Next, using a novel data set based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), we examine the importance of the supply chain for cross-border price spillovers at the sectoral level. We document the increasing importance of imported intermediate inputs for economies in the Asia-Pacific region and examine the impact on domestic producer prices of changes in costs of imported intermediate inputs. Our results suggest that real integration through the supply chain matters for domestic price dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.
In this working paper, we study the three generic clearing arrangements in the presence of two-sided limited commitment: simple bilateral clearing, segregated collateral clearing through a third party, and - most sophisticated of all - central counterparty (CCP) clearing. Clearing secures the settlement of obligations from over-the-counter (OTC) forward contracts that smooth the income of risk-averse agents. Clearing requires collateral to guarantee settlement; this is costly, as it reduces income from investment. While welfare is greater under more sophisticated clearing arrangements, we find that these are also more demanding in terms of collateral.
The Euro Crisis has stopped the process of the European financial integration and triggered a strong repatriation of debt from foreign to domestic investors. We investigate this empirical pattern in light of competing theories of cross-border portfolio allocation. Three empirical regularities stand out: i) repatriation of debt occurred mainly in crisis countries; ii) repatriation affected mainly public debt; iii) public debt of crisis countries was reallocated to politically influential countries within the Euro Area. Standard theories are in line with pattern (i) at best. We argue that the full picture constitutes evidence for the "secondary market theory" of sovereign debt.
This paper assesses the transmission of monetary policy in a large Bayesian vector autoregression based on the approach proposed by Banbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2010). The paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy shocks in the United States and Canada not only on a range of domestic aggregates, trade flows, and exchange rates, but also foreign investment income. The analysis provides three main results. First, a surprise monetary policy action has a statistically and economically significant impact on both gross and net foreign investment income flows in both countries. Against the background of growing foreign wealth and investment income, this result provides preliminary evidence that foreign balance-sheet channels might play an increasingly important role for monetary transmission. Second, the impact of monetary policy on foreign investment income flows differs considerably across asset categories and over time, suggesting that the investment instruments and the currency denomination of a country's foreign assets and liabilities are potentially relevant for the way in which monetary policy affects the domestic economy. Finally, the results support existing evidence on the effectiveness of large vector autoregressions and the Bayesian shrinkage approach in addressing the curse of dimensionality and eliminating price and exchange rate puzzles.
Based on a vector autoregressive model, this paper shows that time variation in monthly excess returns on Swiss government bonds and stocks is predominantly driven by news of inflation and dividends, respectively. This finding is in marked contrast to US evidence which points to a more prominent role of excess return news in this respect. The bond market findings for both Switzerland and the US are consistent with the view that market participants put more weight on news of macroeconomic, i.e. long-term inflation, risks in periods of exceptionally low real interest rates and in crisis periods than in normal times.
Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions, including the level of policy rates at the time of the release, and risk conditions: government bond yields increase in response to "good news", but less so when risk is elevated. Risk conditions matter since they can capture the effects of uncertainty on the information content of news announcements, the interaction of monetary policy and financial stability objectives of central banks, and the effect of news announcements on the risk premium.
