How can small and young agencies cope and target cross border cartels? This paper explores the related challenges and puts forward a pragmatic tool to break down international cooperation barriers. Given the efforts of the ICN in seeking ways and means to operationalise cross-border cooperation in investigation of cases as well as those of selected UNCTAD member States in trying to trigger the international measures section of the UN Set on Competition, this brief contribution attempts to strengthen the ICN framework for non-confidential information sharing between competition agencies by incorporating specific key elements that are provided by the section F.4 related to voluntary consultations so as to address effectively the harmful effects of international cartels in emerging markets.
The summer 2016 saw some of the key emerging economies change their position on services negotiations at the WTO, which may prove instrumental in bringing services back to the WTO, via The Trade in services Agreement (TiSA). While TiSA parties have discussed critical mass based multilateralization for a while, another approach may prove to be more viable - "incrementalism" and "quasi-multilateralization". This hybrid legal form of negotiated outcomes would entail a long-term, multilayered approach integrating TiSA into the GATS/WTO framework at a time that may see TiSA’s silver lining materialize. TiSA could help re-invigorate services negotiations at the WTO and conceptualize legal forms that embody coexistence and transmission between frameworks.
This article explores the intersections between the global tax reform launched by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Group of 20 (G20) to tackle base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) on the one hand, and international rules on trade in services, mostly – the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) under the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the other hand. The GATS entered into force in 1995 to expand trade in services. It covers all measures affecting trade in services, including direct taxation. While the GATS leaves policy space for WTO Members to adopt measures to ensure the effective imposition of direct taxes and to conclude agreements among themselves to avoid double taxation, its negotiators could hardly have envisaged the depth and breadth of the current BEPS reform package, as shown by a recent WTO dispute. This paper provides a systematic analysis of concurrent application of the GATS and the BEPS Package and recommends that WTO Members take actions to avoid potential conflict in applying both sets of rules.
This paper explores the robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis. We analyze an OECD country panel from 1970 to 2008 and compare three data sets on sectoral productivity, including newly constructed data on total factor productivity. Overall, our within- and between-dimension estimation results do not support the BS hypothesis. Over the last two decades, we find a robust negative relationship between productivity in the tradable sector and the real exchange rate, even after including the terms of trade to control for the deviations from the law of one price. Earlier supportive findings depend on the choice of the data set and the model specification.
We compare several methods for monitoring short-term economic developments in Switzerland. Based on a large mixed-frequency data set, the following approaches are presented and discussed: factor-based information combination approaches (including factor model versions based on the Kalman filter/smoother, a principal component based version and the three-pass regression filter), a model combination approach resting on MIDAS regression models and a model selection approach using a specific-to-general algorithm. In an out-of-sample GDP forecasting exercise, we show that the considered approaches clearly beat relevant benchmarks such as univariate time-series models and models that work with one or a small number of indicators. This suggests that a large data set is an important ingredient for successful real-time monitoring of the Swiss economy. The models using a large data set particularly outperform others during and after the Great Recession. Forecast pooling of the most-promising methods turns out to be the best option for obtaining a reliable nowcast for the Swiss economy.
This paper explores the robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis. We analyze an OECD country panel from 1970 to 2008 and compare three data sets on sectoral productivity, including newly constructed data on total factor productivity. Overall, our within- and between-dimension estimation results do not support the BS hypothesis. Over the last two decades, we find a robust negative relationship between productivity in the tradable sector and the real exchange rate, even after including the terms of trade to control for the deviations from the law of one price. Earlier supportive findings depend on the choice of the data set and the model specification.
We compare several methods for monitoring short-term economic developments in Switzerland. Based on a large mixed-frequency data set, the following approaches are presented and discussed: factor-based information combination approaches (including factor model versions based on the Kalman filter/smoother, a principal component based version and the three-pass regression filter), a model combination approach resting on MIDAS regression models and a model selection approach using a specific-to-general algorithm. In an out-of-sample GDP forecasting exercise, we show that the considered approaches clearly beat relevant benchmarks such as univariate time-series models and models that work with one or a small number of indicators. This suggests that a large data set is an important ingredient for successful real-time monitoring of the Swiss economy. The models using a large data set particularly outperform others during and after the Great Recession. Forecast pooling of the most-promising methods turns out to be the best option for obtaining a reliable nowcast for the Swiss economy.
Unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan exert important spillover effects on asset prices in Switzerland if market anticipation of UMP announcements is properly accounted for. Using a broad event set and a long-term bond futures-based measure as a proxy for market anticipation of the announcements, we show that the unexpected part of those UMPs boost Swiss government and corporate bond prices, induce the CHF to appreciate, and dampen Swiss equity prices. Four extensions provide additional insights: First, the estimated effects are strongest for announcements by the ECB. Second, the impact on government bonds is largest for bonds with residual maturities of 7-10 years. Third, the impact of foreign UMP shocks on exchange rates and Swiss bond yields is less pronounced after the introduction of the EURCHF-floor by the Swiss National Bank on September 6, 2011. Fourth, the sign of spillover effects differs for positive and negative UMP surprises, but their strength does not. Our results hint at an important role played by both international portfolio re-balancing channels and international signalling channels in the transmission of foreign monetary policy shocks to Swiss asset prices.
Unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan exert important spillover effects on asset prices in Switzerland if market anticipation of UMP announcements is properly accounted for. Using a broad event set and a long-term bond futures-based measure as a proxy for market anticipation of the announcements, we show that the unexpected part of those UMPs boost Swiss government and corporate bond prices, induce the CHF to appreciate, and dampen Swiss equity prices. Four extensions provide additional insights: First, the estimated effects are strongest for announcements by the ECB. Second, the impact on government bonds is largest for bonds with residual maturities of 7-10 years. Third, the impact of foreign UMP shocks on exchange rates and Swiss bond yields is less pronounced after the introduction of the EURCHF-floor by the Swiss National Bank on September 6, 2011. Fourth, the sign of spillover effects differs for positive and negative UMP surprises, but their strength does not. Our results hint at an important role played by both international portfolio re-balancing channels and international signalling channels in the transmission of foreign monetary policy shocks to Swiss asset prices.
