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Fiscal policy, interest rates and risk premia in open economy

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates and sovereign spreads employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2009. We find that two global factors - the global monetary...

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/ 08/03/2013

Standard essential patents : who is really holding up (and when)?

This paper analyzes the effect of injunctions on royalty negotiations for standard essential patents. We develop a model in which courts grant injunctions only when they have sufficient evidence that the prospective licensee is unwilling, in line with the way we understand Courts to operate in Europe. In such a framework the prospective licensee has a powerful strategic tool: the...

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/ 08/03/2013

Do we need a mechanism for solving sovereign debt crises? A rule-based discussion

This paper uses the rules of engineering as a rhetorical device to discuss why the international financial architecture needs a structured mechanism for dealing with sovereign insolvency. The paper suggests that the most important problem with the status-quo relates to delayed defaults and sketches a proposal aimed at mitigating this problem.

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/ 08/03/2013

Finance and economic development in a model with credit rationing

This paper develops a simple model with credit rationing and endogenous default risk in which the expectation of a bailout may lead to a financial sector which is too large with respect to the the social optimum. The paper concludes with a short discussion of how this model could be used as a building block for models aimed at endogenizing the probability of a bailout, and discussing...

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/ 08/03/2013

Collective action clauses before they had airplanes : bondholder committees and the London Stock Exchange in the 19th century (1827-1868)

This paper unpacks the operation of foreign debt bondholder committees before the creation of the British Corporation of Foreign Bondholders (CFB) in 1868. I argue that many ideas about this period need to be revisited. In particular, my evidence (which uses archival work to describe market microstructures) shows the importance of the London Stock Exchange as a Court of Arbitration....

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/ 08/03/2013

Does intra-Africa regional trade cooperation enhance Africa's export survival?

In this paper, I use a stratified Cox Proportional Hazard Model to econometrically evaluate the effects of intra-Africa regional trade cooperation and other underlying factors on Africa`s export survival. Using a highly disaggregated dataset of bilateral trade flows at HS 6 digit level for 49 African countries for the period 1995 to 2009, I obtain 3 key main empirical results. First...

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/ 08/03/2013

What drives Africa's export diversification?

The primary purpose of this paper is to seek empirical answers to the above question. Using a highly disaggregated bilateral trade flows at HS 6 digit level for African countries for a period 1995-2009 and a conditional logit technique, I find 3 main empirical results. First, intra-Africa regional trade cooperation enhances the likelihood of an African nation exporting across the new...

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/ 08/03/2013

Aiding and abetting the looting of nations : the impact of aid on growth in autocracies

We examine the link between international aid, political instability and economic growth in autocratic countries. First, we discuss the manner in which externally provided liquidity can affect looting and instability in an autocratic country, through the generation of outside options for a dictator who has property rights over the resource wealth of the country. We then use a...

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/ 20/02/2013

Redemption or abstinence ? Original sin, currency mismatches and counter-cyclical policies in the new millenium

This paper updates our previous work on the level and evolution of original sin. It shows that while the number of countries that issue local-currency debt in international markets has increased in the past decade, this improvement has been quite modest. Although we find that countries have been borrowing at home, thanks to deepening domestic markets, we document that foreign...

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/ 06/12/2012

Countercyclical capital regulation and bank ownership structure

This paper develops a macroeconomic framework where the representative bank is owned by inside and outside owners and copes with capital requirements that vary countercyclically. The issuance of outside equity is characterized getting insights from the literature on corporate governance, especially that on corporate governance and investor protection. The insider receives utility...

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/ 19/11/2012

External shocks, internal shots : the geography of civil conflicts

This paper uses detailed information on the latitude and longitude of conflict events within a set of Sub-Saharan African countries to study the impact of external income shocks on the likelihood of violence. We consider a number of external demand shocks faced by the country or the regions within countries - changes in the world demand of agricultural commodities, financial crises...

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Français, English / 19/11/2012

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