Publications des institutions partenaires
Economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture
We study how stochasticity in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth, and the associated demand for food. We use a two-sector Schumpeterian model of growth, in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional consumption good and an agricultural sector produces food to sustain contemporary population. In addition, sectors differ...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 15/06/2016
Do foreign demand shocks impact company sales in France?
An interaction can be observed between a company’s level of exports and its domestic sales. Estimates made using data on French companies show that a 10% increase (decrease) in exports is accompanied, in the same year, by a 1% to 3% increase (decrease) in domestic sales. This strong interaction between sales in different markets can result from short-term funding constraints that...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 30/05/2016
Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective
We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 27/05/2016
Saving by default: evidence from a field experiment in Rural India
Worldwide, people are gaining access to a formal bank account, which allows account-based instead of cash payments. Based on a novel randomized control trial, we document that the payment method is an important determinant of savings behavior. In rural India, we study the effect on savings of allocating identical weekly payments on a bank account (treated) or in cash (control). The...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 27/05/2016
Better more than one: portfolio currency pricing and exchange rate hedging
This paper examines the relationship between the composition of exporters' currency pricing portfolio - number and value of product sales in different currencies at a destination - and their success in trade as measured by continuing to their exporting activity. Detailed investigation of currency choice data of Russian exporters between 2005-2009 shows that many exporters use...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 27/05/2016
Why give aid to resource-rich autocrats?
Why give aid to resource-rich autocrats? We find that the interaction between natural resources and most forms of international aid results in enhanced political instability in most autocratic countries. Interestingly, some types of government aid (notably humanitarian aid) do not have this effect, indicating that the impact of aid varies with its form. Furthermore, we find that only...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 24/05/2016
Options for trade, finance and development: getting the institutions right
The basic tenet of the present policy paper is that economic institutions are the key determinant of economic growth and development, and that policy-makers and developing country governments dealing with trade and finance must concentrate on “getting the institutions right.” In order to be implementable, policy recommendations must correct inefficiencies that the market system will...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 10/03/2016
Oil price pass-through into inflation: the evidence from oil exporting countries
This paper evaluates different channels of oil price pass through into inflation for the countries Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. We propose a methodology to disentangle the effects of different channels after an oil price shock hits international markets. We measure the relative importance of the two distinct channels through which oil price shocks are transmitted into inflation...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 10/03/2016
Braving the waves: the role of time and risk preferences in illegal migration from Senegal
This paper aims to provide the first evidence concerning the relationship between time ans risk preferences and illegal migration in an African context. Based upon our theoretical model and using a unique data set on potential migrants collected in urban Senegal, we evaluate a measure of time and risk preferences through the individual's intertemporal discount rate and coefficient of...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 15/01/2016
The Eurozone crisis: a consensus view of the causes and a few possible solutions
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 07/12/2015
Characteristics of Tunisian business cycle and international synchronisation
In this paper, we have applied spectral and cross spectral analysis techniques as an alternative approach to characterize the Tunisian business cycle and measure the degree of its international synchronization. As a robustness check, we have applied these techniques to the industrial production (overall and manufacturing IPI) as well as two synthetic indexes: a dynamic factor and a...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 25/11/2015
The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Vietnam: a VAR approach
This paper analyses monetary transmission mechanism in Vietnam by using a Vector Autoregression (VAR), focusing especially on how the economy dynamically responds money demand, interest rate, exchange rate, and asset price shocks. In this paper, we establish identification conditions to uncover the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks. By using quarterly data over the period...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 25/11/2015
Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 - agreeing a crisis narrative
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 20/11/2015
Institutional quality, cyclicality of macroeconomic policies and the Effects of macroeconomic shocks: evidence from transition economies
In this paper, we study the role of institutional quality in the cyclicality of macroeconomic policies of transition economies. Using annual data over 1996-2013, we find that the quality of institutions play a significant role in their ability to carry out counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy. This paper also analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal shocks on output. Dividing the...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/11/2015
Current account determinants in Central Eastern European countries
This paper empirically investigates the determinants of current accounts for a sample of 11 Central and East European Countries outside the Euro area. To this end we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model with fixed effects over the period Q1 2005 to Q42014. Consistent with existing literature, we show that domestic GDP, the fiscal deficit, and the real effective exchange rate...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/11/2015
The second wave of global liquidity: why are firms acting like financial intermediaries?
Recent work suggests that non-financial firms have acted like financial intermediaries particularly in emerging economies. We corroborate these findings but then ask why? Our results indicate evidence for carry-trade activities but focused in countries with higher levels of capital controls, particular controls on inflows. We find little evidence for such activities given other...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/11/2015
Survival of the fittest: corporate control and the cleansing effect of financial crises
How does the market for corporate control reallocate firm ownership in response to adverse aggregate financial shocks? To answer this question, we develop a tractable model of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) where firms facing different degrees of financial constraints acquire ownership of illiquid domestic firms. We show that acquisitions by financially constrained acquirers, on...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/11/2015
Riot rewards? study of BJP's electoral performance and Hindu muslim riots
Do incidents of ethnic polarization influence voter behavior? I address this question through the case study of India, the world’s largest functional democracy. Specifically, I test whether prior events of Hindu-Muslim riots electorally benefit Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP), a prominent Hindu nationalist party? The paper contributes to the literature by being the first to establish a...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/11/2015
Billions on the sidewalk: improving savings by reducing investment mistakes
This paper contributes the on-going debate on income inequality in advanced economies with a proposal aimed at reducing costly investment mistakes that are prevalent among middle-class households. The paper starts by describing how households should invest, compares it with what we know about how households do invest, and highlights discrepancies between the two (investment mistakes...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/11/2015
Is the monetary policy rate effective?: recent evidence from Ghana
We examine the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Ghana using several of statistical and econometric techniques for the period 2002M1 – 2014M12. We find monetary policy rate (MPR) to be quite effective in signaling the money market interest rates in both the short run and long run, as the effect is incomplete (that is, not one-to-one). In addition, a hierarchy...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 16/11/2015
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