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Der grosse Krypto-Quatsch

Derzeit ist nicht erkennbar, dass es eine klare Rolle für Kryptowährungen gibt, die für legitime Zwecke nicht ebenso gut durch traditionelle Währungen erfüllt werden könnte. Ein Kommentar von Joachim Voth.

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Deutsch / 21/08/2017

Der Aufstieg der Superstar-Firmen

Der Erfolg von Unternehmen wie Microsoft und Amazon hat zur Marktdominanz einzelner Anbieter geführt und deren Besitzer immens reich gemacht. Ein Kommentar von David Dorn.

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Deutsch / 14/08/2017

Strategic technology adoption and hedging under incomplete markets

We investigate the implications of technological innovation and non-diversifiable risk on entrepreneurial entry and optimal portfolio choice. In a real options model where two risk-averse individuals strategically decide on technology adoption, we show that the impact of non-diversifiable risk on the option timing decision is ambiguous and depends on the frequency of technological...

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English / 01/08/2017

The determinants of food choice

Health nudge interventions to steer people into healthier lifestyles are increasingly applied by governments worldwide, and it is natural to look to such approaches to improve health by altering what people choose to eat. However, to produce policy recommendations that are likely to be effective, we need to be able to make valid predictions about the consequences of proposed...

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English / 01/08/2017

Corruption and cooperation

Corruption is a widespread phenomenon. Nevertheless, causal evidence on the effects of corruption is still lacking. In this paper, we assess whether and how corruption affects cooperation using a public good game experiment. Overall, contributions to the public good are reduced by 30% when participants have the possibility to bribe the punishment authority. Two concurrent channels...

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English / 01/08/2017

Mitigating Global Warming: A Real Options Approach

Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing CO2 emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct costs on a country’s Gross Domestic Product, but costs also arise from temperature...

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English / 01/08/2017

In the short run blasé, In the long run risqué

We identify the impact of short-term interest rates on credit risk-taking in the short and long run by analyzing a comprehensive credit register from Spain, a country where for the last twenty years monetary policy was mostly decided abroad. Duration analyses show that lower overnight rates prior to loan origination lead banks to lend more to borrowers with a worse credit history and...

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English / 01/08/2017

Overcoming therapeutic inertia in multiple sclerosis care: a pilot randomized trial applying the traffic light system in medical education

Background: Physicians often do not initiate or intensify treatments when clearly warranted, a phenomenon known as therapeutic inertia (TI). Limited information is available on educational interventions to ameliorate knowledge-to-action gaps in TI.
Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of an educational intervention compared to usual care among practicing...

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English / 01/08/2017

A default system with overspilling contagion

In classical contagion models, default systems are Markovian conditionally on the observation of their stochastic environment, with interacting intensities. This necessitates that the environment evolves autonomously and is not influenced by the history of the default events. We extend the classical literature and allow a default system to have a contagious impact on its environment...

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English / 18/07/2017

A causal account of the brain network computations underlying strategic social behavior

During competitive interactions, humans have to estimate the impact of their own actions on their opponent's strategy. Here we provide evidence that neural computations in the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) and interconnected structures are causally involved in this process. By combining inhibitory continuous theta-burst transcranial magnetic stimulation with model-based...

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English / 10/07/2017

Reducing child mortality in the last mile: a randomized social entrepreneurship intervention in Uganda

The delivery of basic health products and services remains abysmal in many parts of the world where child mortality is high. This paper shows the results from a largescale randomized evaluation of a novel “social entrepreneurship” approach to health care delivery. In randomly selected villages a sales agent was locally recruited and incentivized to conduct home visits, educate...

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English / 06/07/2017

The identification of beliefs from asset demand

The demand for assets as prices and initial wealth vary identifies beliefs and attitudes towards risk. We derive conditions that guarantee identification with no knowledge either of the cardinal utility index or of the distribution of future endowments or payoffs of assets; the argument applies even if the asset market is incomplete and demand is observed only locally.

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English / 01/07/2017

Female market work, tax regimes, and the rise of the service sector

US regional variation shows a positive correlation between the size of the service economy and female market hours, which is partially driven by different tax regimes. Based on this fact, this paper develops a multi-sector model to: (1) quantify the effect of different tax regimes in incentivizing woman to enter the labor force, and (2) estimate the feedback effect from women...

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English / 01/07/2017

Networks in conflict: theory and evidence from the Great War of Africa

We study from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective how a network of military alliances and enmities affects the intensity of a conflict. The model combines elements from network theory and from the politico-economic theory of conflict. We obtain a closed-form characterization of the Nash equilibrium. Using the equilibrium conditions, we perform an empirical analysis using...

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English / 01/07/2017

De-biasing strategic communication

This paper studies the effect of disclosing conflicts of interest on strategic communication when the sender has lying costs. I present a simple economic mechanism under which such disclosure often leads to more informative, but at the same time also to more biased messages. This benefits rational receivers but exerts a negative externality from them on naive or delegating receivers...

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English / 01/07/2017

Growth and welfare effects of intellectual property rights when consumers differ in income

This paper analyzes how changing the expected length of intellectual property (IP) protection affects economic growth and the welfare of rich and poor consumers. The analysis is based on a product-variety model with non-homothetic preferences and endogenous markups in which, in accordance with empirical evidence, rich households consume a larger variety of goods than poorer ones. The...

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English / 01/07/2017

Beyond sorting: a more powerful test for cross-sectional anomalies

Many researchers seek factors that predict the cross-section of stock returns. The standard methodology sorts stocks according to their factor scores into quantiles and forms a corresponding long-short portfolio. Such a course of action ignores any information on the covariance matrix of stock returns. Historically, it has been difficult to estimate the covariance matrix for a large...

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English / 01/07/2017

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