Publications des institutions partenaires

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Petra Gerlach-Kristen and Barbara Rudolf: Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures

During the financial crisis of 2007/08 the level and volatility of interest rate spreads increased dramatically. This paper examines how the choice of the target interest rate for monetary policy affects the volatility of inflation, the output gap and the yield curve. We consider three monetary policy operating procedures with different target interest rates: two market rates with...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Thomas Nitschka: Momentum in stock market returns: Implications for risk premia on foreign currencies

Momentum in foreign stock market returns is exploitable as signal of currency excess returns. Past stock market winner currencies offer higher returns than past stock market loser currencies. This finding is unrelated to interest rate differentials. Funding liquidity risk explains the time series variation in foreign stock market momentum sorted currency portfolio returns. Their...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Jean-Pierre Danthine and André Kurmann: The Business Cycle Implications of Reciprocity in Labor Relations

We develop a reciprocity-based model of wage determination and incorporate it into a modern dynamic general equilibrium framework. We estimate the model and find that, among potential determinants of wages, rent-sharing (between workers and firms) and wage entitlement (based on wages earned in the past) are important to fit the dynamic responses of output, wages and inflation to...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Martin Brown, Steven Ongena, Alexander Popov and Pinar Yesin: Who Needs Credit and Who Gets Credit in Eastern Europe?

Based on survey data covering 8,387 firms in 20 countries we compare credit demand and credit supply for firms in Eastern Europe to those for firms in selected Western European countries. We find that, while 30% of firms do not need credit in Eastern Europe, their need for credit is higher than in Western Europe. The firm-level determinants of credit needs in Eastern Europe are quite...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Elizabeth Steiner: Estimating a stock-flow model for the Swiss housing market

This paper analyses the development of housing market imbalances, housing prices and residential investment in Switzerland within a stock-flow framework. In the long run, the desired level of residential capital stock and the existing residential capital stock revert. Empirical results indicate, however, that housing demand can diverge from the existing supply for several years due...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Philip Sauré: Overreporting Oil Reserves

An increasing number of oil market experts argue that OPEC members substantially overstate their oil reserves. While the economic implications could be dire, the incentives for overreporting remain unclear. This paper analyzes these incentives, showing that oil exporters may overreport to raise expected future supply, thereby discouraging oil-substituting R&D and improving their...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Sébastien Kraenzlin and Thomas Nellen: Daytime is money

Based on real-time trade data from the Swiss franc overnight interbank repo market and SIX Interbank Clearing (SIC) - the Swiss real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system - we are able to gain valuable insights on the daytime value of money and its determinants: First, an implicit hourly interbank interest rate can be derived from the intraday term structure of the overnight rate. We...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Pierre Monnin and Terhi Jokipii: The Impact of Banking Sector Stability on the Real Economy

This article studies the relationship between the degree of banking sector stability and the subsequent evolution of real output growth and inflation. Adopting a panel VAR methodology for a sample of 18 OECD countries, we find a positive link between banking sector stability and real output growth. This finding is predominantly driven by periods of instability rather than by very...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Samuel Reynard and Andreas Schabert: Modeling Monetary Policy

We develop a macroeconomic framework where money is supplied against only few eligible securities in open market operations. The relationship between the policy rate, expected inflation and consumption growth is affected by money market conditions, i.e. the varying liquidity value of eligible assets and the associated risk. This induces a liquidity premium, which explains the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Loriano Mancini, Angelo Ranaldo and Jan Wrampelmeyer: Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market: Measurement, Commonality, and Risk Premiums

This paper develops a liquidity measure tailored to the foreign exchange (FX) market, quantifies the amount of commonality in liquidity across exchange rates, and determines the extent of liquidity risk premiums embedded in FX returns. The new liquidity measure utilizes ultra high frequency data and captures cross-sectional and temporal variation in FX liquidity during the financial...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Daniel Kaufmann: The Timing of Price Changes and the Role of Heterogeneity

While price-setting models usually suggest constant or increasing hazard functions for price changes, empirical studies often find decreasing hazards, possibly due to misspecified or neglected heterogeneity. This paper attempts to disentangle the downward bias into various sources: observed and unobserved heterogeneity which can be either constant or time-varying. Based on micro data...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Charlotte Christiansen, Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind: The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions, including more currencies, longer...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Carlos Lenz and Marcel Savioz: Monetary determinants of the Swiss franc

This paper looks into the determinants of the Swiss franc exchange rate against the euro. Based on the monetary approach to exchange rates, we start from the premise that monetary policy has an influence on the exchange rate. To measure this effect, we apply the structural vector-autoregression methodology on a set of Swiss macroeconomic variables and the euro area interest rate....

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Martin Schlegel and Sébastien Kraenzlin: Demand for Reserves and the Central Bank's Management of Interest Rates

The implementation of monetary policy is prevalently done by interest rate targeting with a short term market rate serving as operational target. The instruments for achieving the operational target are the provision of reserves and the interest rate charged in these transactions. This paper presents a model for the estimation of the demand curve for reserves, derived from the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Sébastien Kraenzlin and Martin Schlegel: Bidding Behavior in the SNB's Repo Auctions

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) provides reserves to market participants via fixed rate tender auctions. We analyze the banks' bidding behavior and identify the determinants for the decision to participate as well as on the amount to tender. Therefore, we estimate bidding functions for banks which participate regularly in the SNB's auctions. We find that a bank's bids from the previous...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 27/04/2016

Barbara Rudolf and Mathias Zurlinden: Productivity and economic growth in Switzerland 1991-2005

In this paper, we analyse the sources of economic growth in Switzerland during the period 1991-2005. The results suggest that labour input and capital input contribute 0.57 pp and 0.45 pp, respectively, to the average annual GDP growth of 1.28%. The remaining 0.25 pp represent growth in multi-factor productivity, which is calculated as a residual. The estimate of growth in multi-...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Philip Sauré and Hosny Zoabi: Effects of Trade on Female Labor Force Participation

Male and female labor are imperfect substitutes and some sectors are more suitable for female employment than others. Clearly, expansions of those sectors that use female labor intensively must affect aggregate female labor force participation (FLFP). We suggest that FLFP actually drops when trade and international specialization expand sectors that use female labor intensively. This...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 27/04/2016

Nicole Allenspach: Banking and Transparency: Is More Information Always Better?

This paper shows that transparency in banking can be harmful from a social planner's point of view. According to our model, enhancing transparency above a certain level may lead to the inefficient liquidation of a bank. The reason lies in the nature of a standard deposit contract: its payoff scheme has limited upside gains (cap) but leaves the depositor with the downside risk....

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Philip Sauré: Bounded Love of Variety and Patterns of Trade

Recent trade data exhibit the following four empirical regularities: (i) countries import only a small fraction of all traded varieties (ii) per capita income and the number of imported varieties correlate positively (iii) per capita income and trade shares correlate positively and, finally, (iv) world trade shares have increased substantially. The present paper argues that standard...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 27/04/2016

Terhi Jokipii and Alistair Milne: Bank Capital Buffer and Risk Adjustment Decisions

Building an unbalanced panel of United States (US) bank holding company (BHC) and commercial bank balance sheet data from 1986 to 2006, we examine the relationship between short-term capital buffer and portfolio risk adjustments. Our estimations indicate that the relationship over the sample period is a positive two-way relationship. Moreover, we show that the management of such...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 27/04/2016

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