I evaluate whether the so-called long-run risk framework can jointly explain key features of both equity and bond markets as well as the interaction between asset prices and the macroeconomy. I find that shocks to expected consump-
tion growth and time-varying macroeconomic volatility can account for the level of risk premia and its variation over time in both markets. The results suggest a common set of macroeconomic risk factors operating in equity and bond
markets. I estimate the model using a simulation estimator which accounts for time-aggregation of consumption growth and utilizes a rich set of moment conditions.
In this paper we examine the effects of default and scarcity of collateralizable durable goods on risk-sharing. We assume that there is a large set of assets which all
promise a risk-less payo but which distinguish themselves by the collateral requirement. In equilibrium agents default and the assets have dierent payoffs. Assets with very low collateral requirements can be interpreted as sub-prime loans and these assets are often traded actively in the competitive equilibrium. If there is an abundance of commodities that can be used as collateral and if each agent
owns a large fraction of these commodities, markets are complete and competitive equilibrium allocations Pareto optimal. If, on the other hand, the collateralizable durable good is scarce or if some agents do not own enough of the collateralizable durable good in the first
period, markets can be endogenously incomplete, not all of the available assets are traded in the competitive equilibrium and allocations are not Pareto optimal. We give examples that show that welfare losses can be quantitatively large.
We also examine the scope for government intervention. In particular we ask who in the economy gains and who loses if collateral requirements are regulated exogenously. In our
examples, regulation never leads to a Pareto-improvement. Often, the rich and the poor agents gain if trade is restricted to subprime contracts and lose if trade in these contracts is not allowed.
Prospect Theory is widely regarded as the most promising descriptive model for decision mak-ing under uncertainty. Various tests have corroborated the validity of the characteristic fourfold pattern of risk attitudes implied by the combination of probability weighting and value transformation. But is it also safe to assume stable Prospect Theory preferences at the individual level? This is not only an empirical but also a con-ceptual question. Measuring the stability of preferences in a multi-parameter decision model such as Prospect Theory is far more complex than evaluating single-parameter models such as Expected Utility Theory under the assumption of constant relative risk aversion. There exist considerable interdependencies among parameters such that allegedly diverging parameter combinations could in fact produce very similar preference structures. In this paper, we provide a theoretic framework for measuring the (temporal) stability of Prospect Theory parame-ters. To illustrate our methodology, we further apply our approach to 86 subjects for whom we elicit Prospect Theory parameters twice, with a time lag of one month. While documenting remarkable stability of parameter estimates at the aggregate level, we find that a third of the subjects show significant instability across sessions.
For loss averse investors, a sequence of risky investments looks less attractive if it is evaluated myopically—an effect called myopic loss aversion (MLA). The consequences of this effect have been confirmed in several experiments and its robustness is largely undisputed. The effect’s causes, however, have not been thoroughly examined with regard to one important aspect. Due to the construction of the lotteries that were used in the experiments, none of the studies is able to distinguish between MLA and an explanation based on (myopic) loss probability aversion (MLPA). This distinction is important, however, in discussion of the practical relevance and the generalizability of the phenomenon. We designed an experiment that is able to disentangle lottery attractiveness and loss probabilities. Our analysis reveals that mere loss probabilities are not as important in this dynamic context as previous findings in other domains suggest. The results favor the MLA over the MLPA explanation.
A new model class for univariate asset returns is proposed which involves the use of mixtures of stable Paretian distributions, and readily lends itself to use in a multivariate context for portfolio selection. The model nests numerous ones currently in use, and is shown to outperform all its special cases. In particular, an extensive out-of-sample risk forecasting exercise for seven major FX and equity indices confirms the superiority of the general model compared to its special cases and other competitors. Estimation issues related to problems associated with mixture models are discussed, and a new, general, method is proposed to successfully circumvent these. The model is straightforwardly extended to the multivariate setting by using an independent component analysis framework. The tractability of the relevant characteristic function then facilitates portfolio optimization using expected shortfall as the downside risk measure.
We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that are poorly spanned by the cross-section of yields but have strong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global factors are jointly signicant predictors of bond returns, where the global factor is closely linked to US bond risk premia and international business cycles. Motivated by our results, we estimate a no-arbitrage ane term structure model for each country in which movements in risk premia are driven by one local and one global factor. Yield loadings for the two factors are estimated to be close to zero while shocks to risk premia account for a small fraction of yield variance. This suggests that the cross-section of yields conveys little information about the return-forecasting factors. We show that shocks to global risk premia cause osetting movements in expected returns and expected future short-term interest rates, leaving current yields little affected. Furthermore, correlations between international bond risk premia have increased over time, indicating an increase in integration between markets.
In Zeiten zunehmenden Kostendruckes gewinnt Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), die Auslagerung einzelner Prozesse an externe Dienstleistungsanbieter, bei Banken an Bedeutung. Dies trifft insbesondere auf die Abwicklung von Wertschriftentransaktionen zu, welche von Banken vermehrt nicht mehr selbst erbracht, sondern an spezialisierte Dienstleistungsanbieter ausgelagert wird.
Der Autor befasst sich im vorliegenden Werk mit Business Process Outsourcing-Dienstleistungen im Wertschriftenbereich, welche in der Schweiz sowohl von regulierten BPO-Anbietern mit Bank-/Effektenhändlerlizenz als auch von BPO-Anbietern ohne entsprechende Lizenzen angeboten werden. In Bezug auf das Dienstleistungsangebot sowie den Zugang zur Finanzmarktinfrastruktur (Börsen, Clearing- und Settlement-Organisationen etc.) unterscheiden sich die beiden ungleich regulierten BPO-Anbieter voneinander. Damit verbunden sind verschiedene Ertrags-, Kosten-, Risiko- und Kundenbindungsaspekte, welche es bei der ökomischen Beurteilung der einzelnen BPO-Modelle zu berücksichtigen gilt. Das hierfür entwickelte Beurteilungsmodell kann dabei als Hilfsinstrument dienen.
This book presents a selection of ten papers on three specific fields of financial market research. As a help for readers, the table below shows the field to which each paper belongs, and lists the title, author(s) and place or state of publication. Most of these articles went through a
peer-review process1 and have already appeared in scholarly journals or books.
While focusing on different areas, my papers have the common goal of enhancing the understanding of financial markets, in particular of shedding light on seemingly inefficient aspects of the financial markets and the behaviour of traders.
