IMF forecasts and the EU’s Fiscal Compact foresee Europe’s heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 percent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring their debt/GDP ratios down to the Compact’s 60 percent target. We show that primary surpluses this large and persistent are rare. In an extensive sample of high- and middle-income countries there are just 3 (nonoverlapping) episodes where countries ran primary surpluses of at least 5 per cent of GDP for 10 years. Analyzing a less restrictive definition of persistent surplus episodes (primary surpluses averaging at least 3 percent of GDP for 5 years), we find that surplus episodes are more likely when growth is strong, when the current account of the balance of payments is in surplus (savings rates are high), when the debt-to-GDP ratio is high (heightening the urgency of fiscal adjustment), and when the governing party controls all houses of parliament or congress (its bargaining position is strong). Left wing governments, strikingly, are more likely to run large, persistent primary surpluses. In advanced countries, proportional representation electoral systems that give rise to encompassing coalitions are associated with surplus episodes. The point estimates do not provide much encouragement for the view that a country like Italy will be able to run a primary budget surplus as large and persistent as officially projected.
Improvement of educational attainment in schools in urban, disadvantaged areas is an important priority for policy – particularly in countries like England which have a long tail at the bottom of the educational distribution and where there is much concern about low social mobility. An anomaly in the spatial dimension of school funding policy in England allows us to examine the effect of increasing school expenditure for schools in urban areas. This anomaly arises because an ‘area cost adjustment’ is made in how central government allocates funds to Local Authorities (school districts) whereas, in reality, teachers are drawn from the same labour market and are paid according to national pay scales. This is one of the features that give rise to neighbouring schools on either side of a Local Authority boundary being allocated very different resources, even if they have very similar characteristics. We find that these funding disparities give rise to sizeable differences in pupil attainment in national tests at the end of primary school. This finding lends adds to the evidence that school resources have an important role to play in improving educational attainment and has direct policy implications for the current ‘pupil premium’ policy in England.
While microfinance institutions (MFIs) are increasingly important as employers in the developing world, there is little micro-level evidence on gender differences among MFI employees and MFIs' relation to economic development. We use a unique panel dataset of employees from Latin America's largest MFI to show that gender gaps favouring men for promotion exist primarily in the sales division, while there is a significant gender wage gap in the administrative division. Among loan officers in the sales division, the gender gap in promotion and wages reverses. Finally, female employees tend to work with clients with better loan terms and a history of loans with the institution.
This paper reviews the empirical literature on the links between finance and growth with a special focus on the empirical literature that has shown that the marginal contribution of financial depth to economic growth becomes negative in countries with large financial sectors (the "too much finance result"). It then assesses the empirical and theoretical validity of recent criticisms to this literature and concludes by discussing avenues for future research aimed at identifying the channels through which a very large financial sector can slow down economic growth.
The US financial crisis and the later eurozone crisis have substantially impacted capital flows into and out of financial centers like Switzerland. We focus on the pattern of capital flows involving the Swiss banking industry. We first rely on balance-of-payment statistics and show that net banking inflows rose during the acute phases of the crises, albeit with a contrasting pattern. In the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, net inflows were driven by a substantial retrenchment into the domestic market by Swiss banks. By contrast, net inflows from mid-2011 to mid-2012 were driven by large flows into Switzerland by foreign banks. We then use more detailed data from Swiss banking statistics which allow us to differentiate the situation across different banks and currencies. We show that, during the US financial crisis, the bank flows cycle was driven strongly by exposures in US dollars, and to a large extent by Swiss-owned banks. During the eurozone crisis, by contrast, the flight to the Swiss franc and move away from the euro was also driven by banks that are located in Switzerland, yet are foreign-owned. In addition, while the demand for the Swiss franc was driven by both foreign and domestic customers from mid-2011 to early 2013, domestic demand took a prominent role thereafter.
Expressive law is said to induce compliance with stated principles without a price on non-compliance. We empirically assess this proposition, by attempting to dis-entangle the impacts of a legal change (a 5p charge on use of plastic bags), on individual choices. We do so by measuring both behaviours and attitudes across the first two months of the legal change, and by comparing the impacts across neighboring jurisdictions both with and without the change. Using mediation analysis, we find that the self-reported change in internal motivation explains only about 10% of the change in behaviour. Interestingly, we find that the scale of the sanction (charge) is both irrelevant (because jurisdictions without sanctions still exhibit changed behaviour) and important (because the size of the sanction signals the reasonableness of the law).
In countries where rain-fed agriculture constitutes a significant portion of household livelihood, increased weather variability represents a source of vulnerability to stable consumption, food security and household well-being. Weather induced income changes affect household consumption and saving decisions. We evaluate saving and consumption responses to weather variation in South Africa, leveraging a newly available panel of nationally representative households covering the period from 2008 to 2014 and long term climate data. We test our data against predictions of the standard rational consumption model and some of its main extensions (i.e., precautionary saving and myopic consumption), and compare differences among households engaged in agriculture activities versus those that do not. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of saving on household life satisfaction and health behavior. In accordance with previous literature, we find that households save in response to both transitory and permanent income change, although the proportion saved from transitory income is significantly higher. We find signs of precautionary saving driven by non-agriculture households, while we find stronger evidences of myopic consumption for agriculture households. In addition, we show that a one-unit increase in log-saving from transitory income increases the odds of a unit increase in self-reported life satisfaction of the household head by 14%, and a one unit increase in log-saving from permanent income leads to a 6% increase in hazard ratio of having taken an HIV test. This latter result may indicate that preventative health behavior such as HIV testing requires a stronger inducement than a transitory injection of income. Further research is needed to identify the mechanisms by which saving affect life satisfaction and health seeking behavior in developing countries.
The make-up of the EU institutions, and their evolution, should explicitly be based on widely accepted federalism principles. This paper applies federalism principles to a few crucial questions, mainly fiscal policy, fiscal discipline and structural reforms, using where possible lessons from existing federations. After introducing the topic, Section 2 briefly reviews the key message from the fiscal federalism literature. The following sections use these principles to examine a number of areas where centralization may be insufficient or excessive in the EU. Section 3 looks at public spending, both in the aggregate and my main functions. Taxes are examined in Section 4. The next section looks at the issue of fiscal discipline, a weak spot of the Eurozone. The allocation of policy competences, a key characteristic of the UE, is the object of Section 6. The last section concludes.
