The primary purpose of this paper is to seek empirical answers to the above question. Using a highly disaggregated bilateral trade flows at HS 6 digit level for African countries for a period 1995-2009 and a conditional logit technique, I find 3 main empirical results. First, intra-Africa regional trade cooperation enhances the likelihood of an African nation exporting across the new-product, new-market margin. Second, I also find evidence that both product and market experience help to increase the chances of African exporters exporting on new-product and new market margins thus providing support for the learning effects hypothesis. The third result shows that infrastructure related trade frictions such as export costs; time to export; procedures to export as well as weak export supporting institutions have a negative effect on African export diversification. Similarly macroeconomic developments particularly exchange rate volatility, financial underdevelopments and inappropriate foreign direct investments hurt African nation’s chances to diversify its exports. In policy terms this study suggests that for African exporters learning to export from regional markets before exploring major distant markets, a reduction in intra-African trade barriers, deepening and strengthening regional trade cooperation could be a significant channel for encouraging export diversification in Africa.
This paper develops a macroeconomic framework where the representative bank is owned by inside and outside owners and copes with capital requirements that vary countercyclically. The issuance of outside equity is characterized getting insights from the literature on corporate governance, especially that on corporate governance and investor protection. The insider receives utility benefits from the diversion of dividends, but the costs of diversion increase with the size of bank equity owned by outsiders. The goal is to see to what extent the willingness of insiders to share the bank with outsiders is affected by capital regulation. I find a negative link, which holds only if capital restrictions vary countercyclically. Thinking of a positive shock, the justification for such a negative link is that the shock leads not only to tighter regulation, but also to higher expected dividends and, relatedly, to higher agency costs affecting the distribution of earnings.
This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment.
This paper studies the relationship between civil war and HIV/AIDS in Burundi. It contributes to the empirical literature by providing micro level evidence using an identification strategy based on original data on the dynamics of rebel movements. The presence of exit and entry points from and to rebel safe havens is used to generate exogenous variation in conflict intensity. These points are plausibly assumed to serve as starting or end points for rebel attack, but are not directly related to HIV/AIDS or correlated with unobservables. The case of Burundi provides fruitful grounds of analysis, as seroprevalence rates are heterogeneous across the country, the serological and conflict data for Burundi is of good quality and conclusions are likely to serve as valuable insights in Burundi and other fragile countries with similar HIV/AIDS policy agendas. OLS, instrumental variable and binary response model results indicate that within provinces in Burundi there is no clear-cut relationship between local conflict intensity and seroprevalence, condom knowledge and use, knowledge of test opportunities and actual test taking, or rape. Findings suggest that although HIV/AIDS is a general development priority, it is not as urgent a post-conflict priority as commonly assumed.
This paper reconsiders the long term effect of fiscal policy on interest rates using a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables in a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1989-2009. We show that, after controlling for cross sectional dependence using a Factor Augmented Panel, interest rates are mostly related to global factors. Among domestic fiscal variables, the level of expected public debt mantains a positive correlation with interest rates, while among the global factors, the aggregate monetary and fiscal stance play a quantitatively sizeable role. We then analyze how impulses from the aggregate fiscal stance influence each country's interest rates. We find that these effects are modest in large economies and particularly strong in economies characterized by low initial financial integration, leading the way to a novel interpretation of the divergent behaviour of interest rates in the recent financial crisis.
