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The information content of option demand

This paper combines the concept of market sidedness with excess option demand (changes in open interest) to solve the empirical challenge of separating directional from uninformed trading motives in widely available, unsigned options data. Our measure of options market sidedness persistently predicts the sign and strength of stock returns. Trading strategies conditional on the...

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English / 04/05/2014

Volatility information in index option demand

This paper provides evidence that demand for equity index options has predictive power for
future volatility beyond current and lagged volatility in publicly available data. The predictive power increases prior to macroeconomic announcements and exhibits a positive relation with investor uncertainty about macroeconomic news. Straddle positions that trade on the volatility...

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English / 03/05/2014

Cournot games with biconcave demand

Biconcavity is a simple condition on inverse demand that corresponds to the ordinary concept of concavity after simultaneous parameterized transformations of price and quantity. The notion is employed here in the framework of the homogeneous-good Cournot model with potentially heterogeneous firms. The analysis leads to unified conditions, respectively, for the existence of a pure-...

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English / 01/05/2014

College dropout and self-esteem

This study investigates the impact of finishing versus dropping out of college on selfesteem. Using data spanning three decades from the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we find that dropping out of a four-year college significantly decreases selfesteem compared to graduating. In addition, two- and four-year college graduates have significant higher self-esteem than high...

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English / 01/05/2014

The (possible) effect of plain packaging on the smoking prevalence of minors in Australia: a trend analysis

A key stated objective of the Australian Plain Packaging Act 2011 is to influence smoking prevalence, in particular of minors. We use the Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) data set on minors, (that is, Australians aged 14 to 17 years) over the time period January 2001 to December 2013 to analyze whether there is evidence that this goal has been achieved. We carry out a statistical...

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English / 01/05/2014

Elastic contests and the robustness of the all-pay auction

This paper studies a large class of imperfectly discriminating contests, referred to as elastic contests, that induce players to either overbid a standing bid or to abstain from bidding altogether. Many common forms of contest are elastic. In any equilibrium of an elastic contest, there is complete rent dissipation for all but at most one player. This result is used to show that in...

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English / 01/05/2014

Highway to Hitler

Can infrastructure investment win "hearts and minds"? We analyze a famous case in the early stages of dictatorship - the building of the motorway network in Nazi Germany. The Autobahn was one of the most important projects of the Hitler government. It was intended to reduce unemployment, and was widely used for propaganda purposes. We examine its role in increasing support...

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English / 01/05/2014

The value of top-down communication for organizational performance

We design a laboratory experiment to identify causal performance effects of top-down communication between managers and their subordinates. Our focus lies on communication that resolves uncertainty about the work environment but does not provide task-specific knowledge. Recent articles in the business press report a lack of such communication in real-world organizations and associate...

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English / 01/05/2014

Unique equilibrium in rent-seeking contests with a continuum of types

It is shown that rent-seeking contests with continuous and independent type distributions possess a unique pure-strategy Nash equilibrium.

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English / 01/05/2014

Math matters: education choices and wage inequality

SBTC is a powerful mechanism in explaining the increasing gap between educated and uneducated wages. However, SBTC cannot mimic the US within-group wage inequality. This paper provides an explanation for the observed intra-college group inequality by showing that the top decile earners' significant wage growth is underpinned by the link between ex ante ability, math-heavy...

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English / 01/05/2014

Benefits of neuroeconomic modeling: New policy interventions and predictors of preference

Neuroeconomics strives to use knowledge from neuroscience to improve models of decisionmaking. Here we introduce a biologically plausible, drift-diffusion model that is able to jointly predict choice behavior and response times across different choice environments. The model has both normative and positive implications for economics. First, we consistently observe that decisionmakers...

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English / 01/05/2014

Should I stay or should I go? Bank productivity and internationalization decisions

Differences in firm-level productivity explain international activities of non-financial firms quite well. We test whether differences in bank productivity determine international activities of banks. Based on a dataset that allows tracking banks across countries and across different modes of foreign entry, we model the ordered probability of maintaining a commercial presence abroad...

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English / 01/05/2014

Predictive neurofunctional markers of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder based on pattern classification of temporal processing

Objective

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is currently diagnosed on the basis of subjective measures, despite evidence for multi-systemic structural and neurofunctional deficits. A consistently observed neurofunctional deficit is in fine-temporal discrimination (TD). The aim of this proof-of-concept study was to examine the feasibility of distinguishing...

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English / 01/05/2014

Entrepreneurial taxation with endogenous entry

I analyze the optimal taxation of profits and labor income under endogenous firm formation. Individuals differ in their skill and cost of setting up a firm, and can become workers or entrepreneurs. A tax system in which profits and labor income are subject to the same schedule uses general equilibrium effects through wages to indirectly redistribute across occupations. Optimal...

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English / 01/05/2014

Tail risk, capital requirements and the internal agency problem in banks

This paper shows how to design incentive-based capital requirements that would prevent the bank from manufacturing tail risk. In the model, the senior bank manager may have incentives to engage in tail risk. Bank shareholders can prevent the manager from taking on tail risk via the optimal incentive compensation contract. To induce shareholders to implement this contract, capital...

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English / 22/04/2014

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