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Why does context matter? Attraction effects and binary comparisons

A large experimental and empirical literature on asymmetric dominance and attraction effects shows that the probability that an alternative is chosen can increase if additional alternatives become available. Hence context matters and choices and, therefore, market shares can not be accurately described by standard choice models where individuals choose the alternative that yields the...

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English / 01/07/2007

Zur Eignung der Ligagenossenschaft als Organisationsform im professionellen Teamsport: eine modelltheoretische Untersuchung

Eine augenscheinliche Gemeinsamkeit aller vier amerikanischen Major Leagues besteht darin, dass sie als Genossenschaften der Clubs organisiert sind. Im letzten Jahrzehnt konnten die Clubs der großen nationalen Fußballligen Europas ihre Autonomie gegenüber den Fußballverbänden erheblich stärken. Offenbar nutzen die Clubs die gewonnene Freiheit, um in Bezug auf die Ligaorganisation...

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Deutsch / 01/06/2007

Stochastic expected utility theory

A new decision theory is proposed to explain the violations of expected utility theory through the role of random errors. The main premise of the new theory is that individuals make random errors when they compute the expected utility of a risky lottery. When being distorted by error, the expected utility of a lottery should neither exceed the utility of the highest possible outcome...

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English / 01/06/2007

How to make the clean development mechanism sustainable — The potential of rent extraction

The clean development mechanism (CDM) should foster sustainable development and greenhouse gas emission reductions. The design of the CDM and first experience suggest that it may not achieve these goals. Developing countries hosting CDM projects may lose cheap emission reduction possibilities for their own future use, and sustainable development and technology transfer may not take...

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English / 01/06/2007

Relative Performance in Bilateral Trade

Concerns for relative performance are integrated into a model of contractual renegotiation in bilateral trade. It is shown that concernsnfor relative performance do never impede efficient trade. Moreover, conditional on renegotiation to occur, concerns for relative performance tend to mitigate material rent expropriation. However, concerns for relative performance make the occurrence...

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English / 01/06/2007

Age and Choice in Health Insurance: Evidence from Switzerland

Elements of regulation inherent in most social health insurance systems are a uniform package of benefits and uniform cost sharing. Both elements risk to burden the population with a welfare loss if preferences differ. This suggests introducing more contracted choice; however, it is widely believed that this would not benefit the aged. This study examines the relationship between age...

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English / 01/06/2007

On the Geographic and Cultural Determinants of Bankruptcy

This paper examines the role of geography and culture in explaining bankruptcy. We adopt survival analyses to model the bankruptcy risk of a firm, allowing for time-varying covariates. Based on a large sample from all major sectors of the Swiss economy, we find the following results: (i) The geographic location of a firm, which is characterized using a core-periphery approach, has a...

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English / 01/06/2007

Avoiding "Star Wars" - Celebrity creation as media strategy

Media companies generally enjoy increasing profits if more customers watch a program. The viewer drawing capability of stars serves as a prominent instrument to increase the audience. The literature distinguishes between two different types of stars: highly talented and therefore ‘self-made’ superstars, and famous but ‘manufactured’ and thus rather trivial celebrities. Whereas ‘self-...

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English / 01/05/2007

Computational aspects of prospect theory with asset pricing applications

We develop an algorithm to compute asset allocations for Kahneman and Tversky’s (Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291, 1979) prospect theory. An application to benchmark data as in Fama and French (Journal of Financial Economics, 47(2), 427–465, 1992) shows that the equity premium puzzle is resolved for parameter values similar to those found in the laboratory experiments of Kahneman and...

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English / 01/05/2007

Strategic asset allocation and market timing: a reinforcement learning approach

We apply the recurrent reinforcement learning method of Moody, Wu, Liao, and Saffell (1998) in the context of the strategic asset allocation computed for sample data from US, UK, Germany, and Japan. It is found that the optimal asset allocation deviates substantially from the fixed-mix rule. The investor actively times the market and he is able to outperform it consistently over the...

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English / 01/05/2007

Overprotected Politicians

This paper argues that politicians are overprotected. The costs of politicalnassassination differ systematically depending on whether a private or a public point of view is taken. A politician attributes a very high (if not infinite) cost to his or her survival. The social cost of political assassination is much smaller as politicians are replaceable. Conversely, the private cost of...

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English / 01/05/2007

Why Kill Politicians? A Rational Choice Analysis of Political Assassinations

In the course of history a large number of politicians has been assassinated. A rationalnchoice analysis is used to distinguish the expected marginal benefits of killing, and the marginal cost of attacking a politician. The comparative analysis of various equilibria helps us to gain insights into specific historical events.nThe analysis suggests that – in addition to well-known...

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English / 01/05/2007

I'm not fat, just too short for my weight - Family Child Care and Obesity in Germany

Obesity is increasing worldwide for both adults and children. Genetic disposition is responsible for some variation in body weight but cannot explain the dramatic increase in the last two decades. The increase must be due to structural and behavioral changes. One such behavioral change is the increase in working females in the last decades. The absence from the mother reduces...

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English / 01/05/2007

Bias-adjusted estimation in the ARX(1) model

A new point estimator for the AR(1) coefficient in the linear regression model with arbitrary exogenous regressors and stationary AR(1) disturbances is developed. Its construction parallels that of the median--unbiased estimator, but uses the mode as a measure of central tendency. The mean--adjusted estimator is also considered, and saddlepoint approximations are used to lower the...

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English / 01/04/2007

The Emergence of Information Sharing in Credit Markets

We examine how asymmetric information and competition in the credit market affect voluntary information sharing between lenders. We study an experimental credit market in which information sharing can help lenders to distinguish goodnborrowers from bad ones, because borrowers may exogenously switch locations.nLenders, however, are also engaged in spatial competition, and lose market...

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English / 01/04/2007

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