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Agents' Rationality and the CHF/USD Exchange Rate, Part II

In Part I the author was concerned with modeling the monthly logarithmicnCHF/USD exchange rate, ''s''. He rejected a model proposed by B.T.nMcCallum. Searching for a more appropriate framework a story by P. DenGrauwe was introduced, bringing complex cognitive processes and socialnpractices into the picture.nThis paper treats again P. De Grauwe's story,...

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English / 01/10/2003

Measuring Terrorism

Terrorism will be high on the political agenda for many years to come. Various policies are open to a government fighting terrorism but, in any case, considerable costs are involved. In the competition for politicalnsupport, the costs and benefits of anti-terrorism policies will be debated. Better information about terrorism and its consequences can improve policy outcome if there is...

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English / 01/10/2003

Competitive Nash Equilibria and Two Period Fund Separation

We suggest a simple asset market model in which we analyze competitive and strategic behaviornsimultaneously. If for competitive behavior two-fund separation holds across periods then itnalso holds for strategic behavior. In this case the relative prices of the assets do not dependnon whether agents behave strategically or competitively. Those agents acting strategically willnhowever...

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English / 01/10/2003

Re-evaluating an Evaluation Study: The Case of the German Health Care Reform of 1997

This paper reports on a re-evaluation of the German health care reform of 1997. A previous evaluation found a limited effect of a 4.4 percent reduction of the number of doctor visits in a sample of pharmacy customers. The re-evaluation based on a representative household survey, the German Socio-Economic Panel, yields a much larger effect. The paper uses this case study to discuss...

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English / 01/10/2003

Parental Separation and Well-Being of Youths

This paper uses recent data for Germany and a new outcome variable to assess the consequences of parental separation on the well-being of youths. In particular, it is considered how subjective well-being, elicited from an ordinal 11-point general life satisfaction question, differs between youths living in intact and non-intact families, holding many other potential determinants of...

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English / 01/10/2003

Why is the employment rate of older Swiss so high? An analysis of the social security system

Extracts of this paper were presented at the conference "Work Beyond 60: Preparing for the Demographic Shock", 6–7 March 2003 in Vienna organized by The Geneva Association, The Club of Rome, and The Risk Institute. Parts were also presented at the Bertelsmann Foundation conference "Strategien gegen den Fachkräftemangel" in Berlin, 2 July 2002 and at the...

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English / 01/10/2003

Co-Payments for Prescription Drugs and the Demand for Doctor Visits - Evidence from a Natural Experiment

The German health care reform of 1997 provides a natural experiment for evaluating the price sensitivity of demand for physicians’ services. As part of the reform, copayments for prescription drugs were increased by up to 200 percent. However, certain groups of people were exempted from the increase, providing a natural control group against which the changed demand for physicians’...

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English / 01/09/2003

Training Intensity and First Labor Market Outcomes of Apprenticeship Graduates

The apprenticeship system is the most important source of formal post-secondary training in Germany. Using German register data - the IAB Employment Sample - we find that apprentices staying with their training firm after graduation have longer first-job durations but not higher wages than apprentices leaving the training firm. Retention rates, first job durations, and post-...

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English / 01/09/2003

Direct Democracy: Designing a Living Constitution

"A crucial aspect of constitutional design is the provision of rules on how anconstitution is to be amended. If procedures for constitutional amendment are very restrictive,nchanges will take place outside the constitution. These changes are likely to be against thencitizens’ interests and their ability to influence the political process. We argue that thendevelopment...

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English / 01/09/2003

Downstream Investment in Oligopoly

We examine cost-reducing investment in vertically-related oligopolies, where firms may be vertically integrated or separated. Analyzing a standard linear Cournot model, we show that: (i) Integrated firms invest more than separated competitors. (ii) Vertical integration increases own investment and decreases competitor investment. (iii) Firms may integrate strategically so as to...

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English / 01/09/2003

Multiple Unit Auctions and Short Squeezes

This article develops a theory of multiunit auctions where short squeezes can occur in the secondary market. Both uniform and discriminatory auctions are studied and bidders can submit multiple bids. We show that bidders with short and long preauction positions have different valuations in an otherwise common value setting. Discriminatory auctions lead to more short squeezing and...

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English / 11/08/2003

Strategic Outsourcing Revisited

This paper analyzes a sequential game where firms decide about outsourcing the production of a non-specific input good to an imperfectly competitive input market. We apply the taxonomy of business strategies introduced by Fudenberg and Tirole (1984) to characterize the different equilibria. We find that outsourcing generally softens competition in the final product market. If firms...

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English / 01/07/2003

Mobile Number Portability

This paper examines the consequences of introducing mobile number portability (MNP). As MNP allows consumers to keep their telephone number when switching providers, it reduces consumers’ switching costs. However, MNP may also cause consumer ignorance if telephone numbers no longer identify networks. As a result, while fostering competition for mobile customers, MNP may also induce...

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English / 01/07/2003

Corporate Governance for Crooks? The Case for Corporate Virtue

Corporate scandals are reflected in excessive top management compensation and fraudulent accounts. These scandals cause an enormous amount of damage, not only to the companies affected, but also to the market economy as a whole. As a solution, conventional wisdom suggests more monitoring and sanctioning of management. We argue that these efforts will create a governance structure for...

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English / 01/07/2003

Direct Democracy for Transition Countries

Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence are advanced to bolster the claim that direct political participation via referenda and initiatives constitutes an advanced form of democracy with beneficial effects on Transition Countries.nDirect democracy raises trust and honesty and improves social outcomes. Per capita incomes and subjective well-being are raised.nStandard arguments...

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English / 01/07/2003

Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: A Contradiction or Coexistence?

Markowitz and Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics more than a decade ago for thendevelopment of Mean-Variance analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the yearn2002, Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics for the development of Prospect Theory. Cannthese two apparently contradictory paradigms coexist?nIn deriving the CAPM, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin assume...

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English / 01/06/2003

Friedman Meets Hosios: Efficiency in Search Models of Money

In this paper we study the inefficiencies of the monetary equilibrium and optimal monetary policies in a search economy. We show that the same frictions that give fiat money a positive value generate an inefficient quantity of goods in each trade and an inefficient number of trades (or search decisions). The Friedman rule eliminates the first inefficiency and the Hosios rule the...

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English / 01/06/2003

On the Friedman Rule in Search Models with Divisible Money

"with Divisible Money *nAleksander Berentsen†nEconomics Department (WWZ), University of Basel, SwitzerlandnGuillaume Rocheteau‡nSchool of Economics, Australian National University, AustralianApril 14th, 2003nAbstractnThis paper studies the validity of the Friedman rule in a search model with divisi-blenmoney and divisible goods where the terms of trades are...

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English / 01/06/2003

Time-Consistent Private Supply of Outside Paper Money

"Money *nAleksander BerentsennEconomics Departement, University of Basel, SwitzerlandnJune 10, 2003nAbstractnThis paper considers a monopolist’s supply of outside paper money in a random-matchingnmodel with divisible money and divisible goods. When binding supplynannouncements are feasible, the revenue-maximizing policy is characterized by anninitial period where the...

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English / 01/06/2003

Prospect Theory and the CAPM: A contradiction or coexistence?

Under the assumption of normally distributed returns, we analyzenwhether the Cumulative Prospect Theory of Tversky and Kahneman (1992)nis consistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We find that in everynfinancial market equilibrium the Security Market Line Theorem holds.nHowever, under the specific functional form suggested by Tversky andnKahneman (1992) financial market...

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English / 01/06/2003

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