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Loyalty and competence in public agencies

Competent public agencies are associated with better economic outcomes. Beyond competence, political leaders need to secure the loyalty of their agencies. Unfortunately, several theories predict a tradeoff between these two valued features. This paper finds that recruitment into agencies is meritocratic where (1) agency officials have poor outside options, (2) careers in agencies are...

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English / 01/01/2011

How important is that footnote on page 3? Understanding the effect of autocorrelation on the calculation of expected shortfall

Purpose - The failure of the Efficient Market Hypothesis has a direct bearing on the Geometric Brownian Motion model of asset returns. The current paper investigates the effect that the autocorrelation in the time series of returns has on the calculation of Expected Shortfall for an asset-liability investor.

Design/methodology/approach - To uncover the appropriate...

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English / 01/01/2011

Bond ladders and optimal portfolios

We analyze complex bond portfolios within the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium asset-pricing model. Equilibrium bond portfolios are nonsensical and imply a trading volume that vastly exceeds observed trading volume on financial markets. Instead, portfolios that combine bond ladders with a market portfolio of equity assets are nearly optimal investment strategies. The...

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English / 01/01/2011

Optimization: a Journal of Mathematical Programming and Operations Research

Optimization publishes refereed, theoretical and applied papers on the latest developments in fields such as linear, nonlinear, stochastic, parametric, discrete and dynamic programming, control theory and game theory.

A special section is devoted to review papers on theory and methods in interesting areas of mathematical programming and optimization techniques. The journal...

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English / 01/01/2011

Operations Research Letters

Operations Research Letters is a publication for literature on all aspects of operations research and the management and decision sciences. The features distinguishing it from other journals in the field are
* concise articles, generally limited to 6 journal pages
* rapid review and fast publication
* broad coverage of the literature.
Apart from the page...

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English / 01/01/2011

News sensitivity and the cross-section of stock returns

The paper is the first one outside the high-frequency domain to use sentiment-signed news to directly compare news and no-news stock returns. This is done by estimating
whether returns on positive, neutral and negative news days are significantly different from the average daily return for a large sample of US stocks over the period from
January 2003 to August 2010. The...

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English / 01/01/2011

The war puzzle: Contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets

We study a number of large international military conflicts since World War II where we establish a news analysis as a proxy for the estimated likelihood that the conflict will result in a war. We find that in cases when there is a pre-war phase, an increase in the war likelihood tends to decrease stock prices, but the ultimate outbreak of a war increases them. In cases when a war...

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English / 01/01/2011

Weighted maximum likelihood for risk prediction

Most time series models used in econometrics and empirical finance are estimated with maximum likelihood methods, in particular when interest centers on density and Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction. The standard maximum likelihood principle implicitly places equal weight on each of the observations in the sample, but depending on the extent to which the model and the true data...

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English / 01/01/2011

A note on reward-risk portfolio selection and two-fund separation

This paper presents a general reward-risk portfolio selection model and derives sufcient conditions for two-fund separation. In particular we show that many reward-risk models presented in the literature satisfy these conditions.

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English / 01/01/2011

Does prospect theory explain the disposition effect?

The disposition effect is the observation that investors hold winning stocks too long and sell losing stocks too early. A standard explanation of the disposition effect refers to prospect theory and in particular to the asymmetric risk aversion according to which investors are risk averse when faced with gains and risk-seeking when faced with losses. We show that for reasonable...

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English / 01/01/2011

Bitte keine Schwimmwesten für Kapitäne mehr!

Für Professor Urs W. Birchler vom Swiss Banking Institute
der Uni Zürich ist die Kritik der UBS am Swiss Finish
nicht nachvollziehbar. Die Einführung von CoCos hält
der ehemalige Nationalbanker für sehr sinnvoll.

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Deutsch / 01/01/2011

Must-take cards: Merchant discounts and avoided costs

Antitrust authorities often argue that merchants cannot reasonably turn down payment cards and therefore must accept excessively high merchant discounts. The paper attempts to shed light on this must-take cards view from two angles. First, the paper gives some operational content to the notion of must-take card through the avoided-cost test or tourist test: would the merchant want to...

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English / 01/01/2011

Risk management in turbulent times

DescriptionThe subprime crisis has shown that the sophisticated risk management models used by banks and insurance companies had serious flaws. Some people even suggest that these models are completely useless. Others claim that the crisis was just an unpredictable accident that was largely amplified by the lack of expertise and even naivety of many investors. This book takes the...

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English / 01/01/2011

Liquidity management and corporate demand for hedging and insurance

We analyze the demand for hedging and insurance by a firm facingcash-flow risks. We study how the firm’s liquidity managementpolicy interacts with two types of risk: a Brownian risk that canbe hedged through a financial derivative, and a Poisson risk thatcan be insured by an insurance contract. We find that the patternsof insurance and hedging decisions are pole apart: cash-poor...

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English / 01/01/2011

Free cash flow, issuance costs, and stock prices

We develop a dynamic model of a firm facing agency costs of free cash flow and externalfinancing costs, and derive an explicit solution for the firm’s optimal balance sheet dynamics. Financial frictions affect issuance and dividend policies, the value of cash holdings, and the dynamics of stock prices. The model predicts that the marginal value of cash varies negatively with the...

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English / 01/01/2011

Volatility-of-volatility : A simple model free motivation

Our goal is to provide a simple, intuitive and model-free motivation for the importance of volatility-of-volatility in pricing certain kinds of exotic and structured products.

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English / 01/01/2011

Is the pricing kernel u-shaped?

There is strong empirical evidence that the pricing kernel is U-shaped, which provides a way to explain the substantial coskewness premium. Existing studies typically use a polynomial approximation of the pricing kernel. Problematically, these polynomials have, in most cases, increasing parts by construction. Therefore, it is not clear whether the increasing parts are an artifact of...

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English / 01/01/2011

Expected shortfall for distributions in finance

It has been nearly 50 years since the appearance of the pioneering paper of Mandelbrot (1963) on the non-Gaussianity of financial asset returns, and their highly fat-tailed nature is now one of the most prominent and accepted stylized facts. The recent book by Jondeau et al. (2007) is dedicated to the topic, while other chapters and books discussing the variety of non-Gaussian...

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English / 01/01/2011

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