Publications des institutions partenaires

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Adaptive methods in macroeconomic forecasting

Adaptive methods are used to forecast three main Austrian economic indicators. We use a weighted recursive model as well as a neural network approach both with and without adaptive characteristics and compare our results to the forecasts of two Austrian research institutes. It appears that even models which use very limited information can outperform the two Institutes’ forcasts of...

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English / 01/01/1997

The choice between emission taxes and output taxes under imperfect monitoring

We consider a regulator's choice between environmentally motivated emissions taxes and output taxes. We investigate how the optimal instrument depends on the monitoring cost function, the firm's technology, and on social preferences regarding output and environmental quality. Pure emissions taxes are usually not optimal with monitoring costs. Pure output taxes are optimal...

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English / 01/01/1997

Was prometheus unbound by chance? Risk diversification and growth

This paper offers a theory of development that links the degree of market incompleteness to capital accumulation and growth. At early stages of development, the presence projects limits the degree of risk spreading (diversification) that the economy can achieve. The desire to avoid highly risky investments slows down capital accumulation, and the inability to diversify idiosyncratic...

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English / 01/01/1997

Resistant Modelling of Income Distributions and Inequality Measures

We review the use and the interpretation of some robustness concepts and techniques in some economic applications. We focus on estimation techniques in income distribution analysis and we discuss the reliability of inequality measures.

Institution partenaire

Université de Genève

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English / 01/01/1997

Asset & Liability Management

Über Herausforderungen und Potentiale im ALM heute, das Konzept der stochastischen Optimierung und die gewonnenen Erfahrungen innerhalb einer Kooperation mit einer schweizerischen Grossbank.

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Deutsch / 01/01/1997

Approximations of Profit-and-Loss Distributions (Management Version)

The incorporation of single-factor interest rate models within the stochastic programming methodology is investigated and applied to multiperiod investment. Barycentric approximation is used for discretizing the stochastic factors and for generating scenario trees which take the various term structure movements into account. It is shown that employing the Vasicek model for the...

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English / 01/01/1997

Approximations of Profit-and-Loss Distributions (Part II)

working report - Former investigation (Approximation of Profit-and-Loss Distributions, Part I) introduces the application of the barycentric approximation methodology for evaluating profit-and-loss distributions numerically. Although, convergence of the quantiles is ensured by the weak convergence of the discrete measures, as proclaimed in Part I, recent numerical results have...

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English / 01/01/1997

Mean-Variance Analysis in a Multiperiod Setting

Similar to the classical Markowitz approach it is possible to apply a mean-variance criterion to a multiperiod setting to obtain efficient portfolios. To represent the stochastic dynamic characteristics necessary for modelling returns a process of asset returns is discretized with respect to time and space and summarized in a scenario tree. The resulting optimization problem is...

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English / 01/01/1997

Evaluation report

ELECTRA Project

English / 01/01/1997

Pages

Le portail de l'information économique suisse

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