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Back to the St. Petersburg paradox?

The conventional parameterizations of cumulative prospect theory do not explain the St. Petersburg paradox. To do so, the power coefficient of an individual’s utility function must be lower than the power coefficient of an individual’s probability weighting function.

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English / 01/04/2005

Evolutionary Choice of Markets

We consider an economy where a finite set of agents can trade on one of two asset markets. Due to endogenous participation the differ in the liquidity they provide. Traders have idiosyncratic preferencesnfor the markets, e.g. due to differential time preferences for maturity dates of futures contracts. For a broad range of parameters we find that nontrade, trade on both markets (...

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English / 01/04/2005

Social Learning and Voluntary Cooperation among Like-Minded People

Many people contribute to public goods but stop doing so once they experience free riding.We test the hypothesis that groups whose members know that they are composed only of "likeminded" cooperators are able to maintain a higher cooperation level than the most cooperative, randomly composed groups. Our experiments confirm this hypothesis. We also predict that groups of...

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English / 01/04/2005

Ordered Response Models

We discuss regression models for ordered responses, such as ratings of bonds, schooling attainment, or measures of subjective well-being. Commonly used models in this context are the ordered logit and ordered probit regression models. They are based on an underlying latent model with single index function and constant thresholds. We argue that these approaches are overly restrictive...

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English / 01/03/2005

Merge or Fail? The Determinants of Mergers and Bankruptcies in Switzerland, 1995-2000

This paper examines the determinants of mergers and bankruptcies, using firm level data from the Swiss Business Census and the Dun & Bradstreet exit database for Switzerland (1995-2000). Employing duration analysis, we find considerable differences in the determinants of mergers and bankruptcies, in particular with respect to firm size, location and the impact of macroeconomic...

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English / 01/03/2005

Evidence for a hyperbolic-like distribution of asset returns drawn from a simple economical financial markets model

Risk management and asset pricing benefit from simple functional descriptions of the distribution of real asset returns. Recently, several authors have proposed that asset returns in real stock markets are distributed according to a hyperbolic distribution. While asset returns are generated by trades over time, the natural question is: What does economic theory imply concerning...

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English / 01/03/2005

Base-Rate Neglect and Imperfect Information Acquisition

Base-rate neglect is a robust experimental finding that individuals do not update their prior beliefs according to the Bayes' rule and, typically, underestimate their posterior probabilities. Another empirical finding is that individuals often do not acquire information even when there are no strategic considerations and the cost of new information is justifiableneconomically....

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English / 01/03/2005

Unemployment and Right-Wing Extremist Crime

Right-wing extremism is a serious problem in many societies. A prominent hypothesis states that unemployment plays a crucial role for the occurrence of right-wing extremist crime. In this paper we empirically test this hypothesis. We use a previously not used data set which includes all officially recorded right-wing criminal acts in Germany. These data are recorded by the German...

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English / 01/03/2005

Fostering Within-Family Human Capital Investment: An Intragenerational Insurance Perspective of Social Security

We propose an extended PAYG social security system that conditions pension benefits on the aggregate wage sum and on the wage of one’s children. The latter increases parents’ incentives to provide their children with good within-familyneducation. However, since wages depend stochastically on parents’ unobservable investment in their children’s human capital, some insurance against...

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English / 01/03/2005

An Adverse Selection Model of Optimal Unemployment

We ask whether offering a menu of unemployment insurance contracts is welfare improving in a heterogeneous population. We adopt a repeated moral-hazard framework as in Shavell/Weiss (1979) supplemented by unobservednheterogeneity about agents’ job opportunities. Our main theoretical contribution is an analytical characterizationnof the sets of jointly feasible entitlements that...

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English / 01/03/2005

Government procurement : market access, transparency, and multilateral trade rules

This paper examines the effects on national welfare and market access of two public procurement practices, discrimination and nontransparency. Both policies have become prominent in international trade negotiations, including the Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) trade talks. We show that fostering either domestic competition or transparency in state contracting tends to...

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English / 01/03/2005

Option für die Armen: Eine ökonomische Perspektive

Poverty is - from an economic perspective − mainly a structural problem, which may be solved with economic growth. After presenting several concepts of poverty we first discuss problems connected with economic growth and show why it makes sense to fight against poverty with structural measures. The fact that there will be losers as well does not make this a priori invalid. Next, by...

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Deutsch / 01/03/2005

WTO Dispute Settlement at Ten: Evolution, Experiences, and Evaluation

On 1 January 1995, the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU) entered into force. During its first ten years, the DSU has since been applied to 324 complaints - more cases than dispute settlement under the GATT
1947 had dealt with in nearly five decades. The system is perceived, both by practitioners and in academic literature, to work...

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English / 01/03/2005

Stochastische Optimierung im Energiehandel: Entscheidungsunterstützung und Bewertung für das Portfoliomanagement

Unsicherheiten im Strommarkt erfordern flexible Reaktionen von Stromversorgungsunternehmen auf sich kontinuierlich wandelnde Strukturen. Marktteilnehmer ohne marktbeherrschende Stellung müssen zunehmend die kurzfristig hochvolatilen und langfristig nicht prognostizierbaren Preisentwicklungen berücksichtigen. Federführend durch die Stadtwerke Giessen AG und motiviert durch ihre...

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Deutsch / 09/02/2005

Consumer Resistance Against Regulation: The Case of Health Care

Regulation fostering Managed Care alternatives in health insurance is spreading. This work reports on an experiment designed to measure the amounts of compensation asked by the Swiss population (in terms of reduced premiums) for Managed-Care type restrictions in the provision of health care. It finds that restrictions on the freedom of physician choice would require an average...

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English / 01/02/2005

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