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Testing Conditional Asset Pricing Models Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach

We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the parameter estimation and testing of conditional asset pricing models. In contrast to traditional approaches, it is truly conditional because the assumption that time variation in betas is driven by a set of conditioning variables is not necessary. Moreover, the approach has exact finite sample properties and accounts for errors-...

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English / 01/06/2008

Management Strategies and Dynamic Financial Analysis

Dynamic financial analysis (DFA) has become an important tool in analyzing the financial situation of insurance companies. Constant development and documentation of DFA tools has occurred during the last years. However, several questions concerning the implementation of DFA systems have not been answered in the DFA literature to date. One such important issue is the consideration of...

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English / 01/06/2008

Oxytocin shapes the neural circuitry of trust and trust adaptation in humans

Trust and betrayal of trust are ubiquitous in human societies. Recent behavioral evidence shows that the neuropeptide oxytocin increases trust among humans, thus offering a unique chance of gaining a deeper understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying trust and the adaptation to breach of trust. We examined the neural circuitry of trusting behavior by combining the intranasal,...

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English / 22/05/2008

WTO Dispute Settlement - An Important Trade Policy Instrument

Zimmermann, Thomas A.: WTO Dispute Settlement - An Important Trade Policy Instrument; Presentation at the 64th Session of the OECD Steel Committee; Paris (La Défense): Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 22 May 2008 / Präsentation an der 64. Sitzung des OECD Stahlausschusses; Paris (La Défense): Organisation für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung...

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English / 22/05/2008

Temporal characteristics of audiovisual information processing

In complex natural environments, auditory and visual information often have to be processed simultaneously. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies focused on the spatial localization of brain areas involved in audiovisual (AV) information processing, but the temporal characteristics of AV information flow in these regions remained unclear. In this study, we...

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English / 14/05/2008

Being independent is a great thing: subjective evaluations of self-employment and hierarchy

One can be independent, or one can be subject to decisions made by others. This paper argues that this difference, embodied in the institutional distinction between the decision-making procedures ‘market’ and ‘hierarchy’, affects individual wellbeing beyond outcomes. Taking self-employment as an important case of independence, it is shown that the self-employed derive higher...

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English / 01/05/2008

Comparing the processing of music and language meaning using EEG and fMRI provides evidence for similar and distinct neural representations

Recent demonstrations that music is capable of conveying semantically meaningful information has raised several questions as to what the underlying mechanisms of establishing meaning in music are, and if the meaning of music is represented in comparable fashion to language meaning. This paper presents evidence showing that expressed affect is a primary pathway to music meaning and...

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English / 01/05/2008

Competition and Innovation: An Experimental Investigation

The paper analyzes the e?ects of more intense competition on ?rms’ incentives to invest in process innovations. We carry out experiments based on two-stage games, where R&D investment choices are followed by product market competition. As predicted by theory, an increase in the number of ?rms from two to four reduces investments. However, a positive e?ect is observed for a switch...

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English / 01/05/2008

Looking Awkward When Winning and Foolish When Losing: Inequity Aversion and Performance in the Field

The experimental literature and studies using survey data have established that people care a great deal about their relative economic position and not solely, as standard economic theory assumes, about their absolute economic position. Individuals are concerned about social comparisons. However, behavioral evidence in the field is rare. This paper provides an empirical analysis...

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English / 01/05/2008

Learning, public good provision, and the information trap

We consider an economy where decision maker(s) do not know the true production function for a public good. By using Bayes rule they can learn from experience. We show that the economy may learn the truth, but that it may also converge to an inefficient policy where no further inference is possible so that the economy is stuck in an information trap. We also show that our results are...

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English / 01/05/2008

Outside Versus Inside Bonds

When agents are liquidity constrained, two options exist — borrow or sell assets. We compare the welfare properties of these options in two economies: in one, agents can borrow (issue inside bonds) and in the other they can sell government bonds (outside bonds). All transactions are voluntary, implying no taxation or forced redemption of private debt. We show that any allocation in...

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English / 01/05/2008

The Envious Punisher: Understanding Third and Second Party Punishment with Simple Games

We provide a systematic comparison of punishment from unaffected third parties and affected second parties using a within-subject design in ten simple games. We apply the classification analysis by El-Gamal and Grether (1995) and find that a parsimonious model assuming subjects are either envious or selfish best explains the punishment from both third and second parties. Third and...

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English / 01/05/2008

Between Agora and Shopping Mall

Advertisements provide consumers with knowledge about private products, whereas political information is required to provide voters with knowledge of public issues. Modern information technologies and globalisation are increasing the exposure of individuals to information. Goods advertising is competing with political information for people's attention. This paper presents a...

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English / 01/05/2008

All-Pay Auctions with Negative Prize Externalities: Theory and Experimental Evidence

The paper characterizes the mixed-strategy equilibria in all-pay auctions with endogenous prizes that depend positively on own e?ort and negatively on the e?ort of competitors. Such auctions arise naturally in the context of investment games, lobbying games, and promotion tournaments. We also provide an experimental analysis of a special case which captures the strategic situation of...

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English / 01/05/2008

Tactical Industry Allocation and Model Uncertainty

We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze the sample evidence on industry return predictability within the U.S. stock market in the presence of model uncertainty. The posterior analysis shows the importance of in.ation and earnings yield in predicting industry returns. The analysis shows that the out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian approach is, in general, superior to that of...

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English / 01/05/2008

Does the Measure Matter in the Mutual Fund Industry?

It is frequently noted that investment funds with a nonnormal return distribution cannot be adequately evaluated using the classic Sharpe ratio. However, recent research compared the Sharpe ratio with other performance measures and found virtually identical rank ordering using hedge fund data. We extend this research by analyzing a large data set of 38,954 funds investing in seven...

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English / 01/05/2008

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