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Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: An Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of...

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/ 09/08/2011

HIV/AIDS and Conflict: Micro Evidence from Burundi

This paper studies the relationship between civil war and HIV/AIDS in Burundi. It contributes to the empirical literature by providing micro level evidence using an identification strategy based on original data on the dynamics of rebel movements. The presence of exit and entry points from and to rebel safe havens is used to generate exogenous variation in conflict intensity. These...

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/ 09/08/2011

Aid, peasants and social exclusion

Using unique village census data collected in 2003 and 2008 in Senegal, we assess the impact of a major World Bank-funded Community Driven Development (CDD) program on membership and assortative matching in community-based organizations (CBOs). We implement both standard discrete choice and dyadic regression techniques. We find that channeling development aid through CBOs makes these...

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/ 09/08/2011

Country Portfolios with Imperfect Corporate Governance

Equity home bias is one of the most enduring puzzles in international finance. In this paper, I start out by documenting a novel stylized fact about home bias: countries with weaker domestic institutions hold fewer foreign assets. I then explore a macroeconomic mechanism by which the presence of agency problems in firms may explain this pattern. To do so, I develop a two-country...

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/ 09/08/2011

Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy

This paper reconsiders the long term effect of fiscal policy on interest rates using a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables in a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1989-2009. We show that, after controlling for cross sectional dependence using a Factor Augmented Panel, interest rates are mostly related to global factors. Among domestic fiscal variables, the...

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/ 09/08/2011

Landmines

This paper estimates the causal impact of landmines on child health and household expenditures in Angola by exploiting geographical variations in landmine intensity. We generate exogenous variation in landmine intensity using the distance between communes and rebel headquarters. As predicted by our theoretical model of rebel mining, landmine intensity is found to be a decreasing...

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/ 09/08/2011

Parental Height and the Sex Ratio

This paper tests the generalized Trivers Willard hypothesis, which predicts that parents with heritable traits that increase the relative reproductive success of males compared to females will have relatively more males than females. As in Kanazawa (2005) we test if taller mothers have relatively more sons in a pooled sample of Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) from 46 developing...

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/ 09/08/2011

Where It All Began: Lending of Last Resort and the Bank of England during the Overend, Gurney Panic of 1866

The National Monetary Commission was deeply concerned with importing best practice. One important focus was the connection between the money market and international trade. It was said that Britain’s lead in the market for “acceptances” originating in international trade was the basis of its sterling predominance. In this article, we use a so-far unexplored source to document the...

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/ 09/08/2011

Dynamics of Nutrition and Child Health Stocks (The)

Height-for-age (HA) and weight-for-age (WA) of children are standard measures to study the determinants of stunting and short-term underweight. Rather than studying these indicators separately, this paper looks at their interaction and therefore at the dynamics of height and weight. Considering HA a child's health stock and WA nutritional investment, we develop an overlapping...

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/ 09/08/2011

Regulating Asset Price Risk

There has been a long debate about whether speculators are stabilizing or not. We consider a model where speculators have a stabilizing role in normal times, but may also provoke large risk panics. The very feature that makes arbitrageurs liquidity providers in normal times, namely their tolerance of risk, enables a large increase in asset price risk during a financial panic. We show...

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/ 09/08/2011

Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected? Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities

The emergence of the gold standard has for a long time been viewed as inevitable. Fluctuations of the gold-silver exchange rate in world markets were accused to lead to brutal and unsustainable switches of bimetallic countries’ money supplies. However, more recent work has shown that the option character of bimetallism provided a stabilizing feedback loop. Using original data, this...

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/ 09/08/2011

Evolution of International Consumption Risk Sharing Over Time And Frequency (The)

Improved consumption risk sharing is one of the fundamental predicted benefits of increased financial integration, yet the empirical evidence concerning this proposition is mixed. Using the novel empirical technique of wavelet analysis, this paper for the first time in the literature uncovers the heterogeneous evolution of consumption and output correlations over the time and...

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/ 09/08/2011

Chinese networks and tariff evasion

In this paper we combine the tariff evasion analysis of Fisman and Wei (2004) with Rauch and Trindade’s (2002) study of Chinese trade networks. Chinese networks are known to act as trade catalysts by enforcing contracts and providing market information. As tariff evasion occurs outside the law, market information is scant and formal institutions inexistent, rendering networks the...

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Français, English / 09/08/2011

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