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Diffusion of behavior in dynamic networks

We analyze binary choice models in communication networks, in which both, the formation of links in the network as well as the action choices are endogenous. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium action choices and networks, where agents choose their strategies – actions and links – according to a perturbed best response update rule. We show that a...

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English / 01/05/2017

An experimental test of the Anscombe-Aumann Monotonicity axiom

Most models of ambiguity aversion satisfy Anscombe-Aumann’s Monotonicity axiom. Monotonicity imposes separability of preferences across events that occur with unknown probability. We construct a test of Monotonicity by modifying the Allais paradox to a setting with both subjective and objective uncertainty. Two experimental studies are conducted: while study 1 uses U.S. online...

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English / 01/05/2017

Testing-Based Forward Model Selection

This paper defines and studies a variable selection procedure called Testing-Based Forward Model Selection. The procedure inductively selects covariates which increase predictive accuracy into a working statistical regression model until a stopping criterion is met. The stopping criteria and selection criteria are defined using statistical hypothesis tests. The paper explicitly...

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English / 01/05/2017

Endogenous Growth, Semi-endogenous Growth... or Both? A Simple Hybrid Model

First generation endogenous growth models had the counterfactual implication that the long-term growth of per-capita GDP increased with the population size. Two influential growth paradigms, the semi-endogenous and the second generation fully endogenous, eliminated this strong scale effect. Both solutions have useful aspects and insights, but very different policy implications. This...

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English / 01/05/2017

Access to Credit and Comparative Advantage

Access to external funds is crucial for the entry and expansion of entrepreneurial firms and the sectors they predominantly arise in. This paper reports three important results. First, comparative advantage is shaped by factor endowments as well as fundamental determinants of corporate finance. In particular, a larger equity ratio of firms and tough governance standards relax...

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English / 01/05/2017

Industrie 4.0 in der Supply Chain

Im Kern von Industrie 4.0 steht eine Vielzahl an Technologien, welche die digitale Vernetzung von Objekten ermöglichen. Der Beitrag analysiert die derzeitige und künftige Verwendung von Industrie 4.0-Technologien und -Lösungen bei Schweizer Unternehmen auf Grundlage der Logistikmarktstudie Schweiz, Band 2017.

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Deutsch / 01/05/2017

Industrie 4.0-Strategien und Reifegrad

Industrie 4.0 ist in aller Munde. Ermöglicht wird diese «vierte industrielle Revolution» durch die flexible digitale Vernetzung von
Objekten (z.B. Produkten oder Maschinen) über das Internet und andere Netzwerkdienste. Im Rahmen der Fokusstudie «SCM 4.0: Supply Chain Management und digitale Vernetzung» wird der aktuelle Stand der Implementierung von Industrie 4.0 bei Schweizer...

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Deutsch / 01/05/2017

Sharp convergence rates for forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models

Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models. Probabilistic bounds for...

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English / 01/05/2017

Inklusion von Männern gemeinsam gestalten: Praxistipps für die Kita

Männer in der Kita stellen noch immer eine Minderheit dar und werden
daher unweigerlich als «anders» wahrgenommen. Kita-Leitungen sind in
diesem Zusammenhang mit verschiedenen Fragen und Herausforderungen
konfrontiert: Was kann ich tun, um mehr Bewerbungen von Männern zu
erhalten? Wie kann ich dazu beitragen, dass Männer und Frauen sich im
Team...

Deutsch / 01/05/2017

Cultural Preferences and the Choice between Formal and Informal Financing

This paper documents significant differences in the financing structure of small firms with managers of diverse cultural backgrounds. To separate the effect of culture from other factors that affect the financing structure of firms, we exploit cultural heterogeneity within a geographical area with shared regulations, institutions, and macroeconomic cycles. Our findings suggest that...

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English / 01/05/2017

Monetary Policy and Currency Returns: the Foresight Saga

We document a drift in exchange rates before monetary policy changes across major economies. Currencies tend to depreciate by 0.7 percent over ten days before policy rate cuts and appreciate by 0.5 percent before policy rate increases. We show that available fixed income instruments allow to accurately forecast monetary policy decisions and thus that the drift is foreseeable and...

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English / 01/05/2017

What are asset demand tests of expected utility really testing?

Assuming the classic contingent claim setting, a number of financial asset demand tests of Expected Utility have been developed and implemented in experimental settings. However the domain of preferences of these asset demand tests differ from the mixture space of distributions assumed in the traditional binary lottery laboratory tests of von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility...

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English / 01/05/2017

Monotone equilibria in signalling games

We study the monotonicity of sender’s equilibrium strategy with respect to her type in signalling games. We use counterexamples to show that when the sender’s payoff is non-separable, the Spence-Mirrlees condition cannot rule out equilibria in which the sender uses non-monotone strategies. These equilibria can survive standard refinements as incentives are strict and the sender plays...

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English / 01/05/2017

Inklusion von Männern gemeinsam gestalten : Praxistipps für die Kita

Männer in der Kita stellen noch immer eine Minderheit dar und werden
daher unweigerlich als «anders» wahrgenommen. Kita-Leitungen sind in
diesem Zusammenhang mit verschiedenen Fragen und Herausforderungen
konfrontiert: Was kann ich tun, um mehr Bewerbungen von Männern zu
erhalten? Wie kann ich dazu beitragen, dass Männer und Frauen sich im
Team...

Deutsch / 01/05/2017

Concentrating on the fall of the labor share

The recent fall of labor's share of GDP in numerous countries is well-documented, but its causes are poorly understood. We sketch a "superstar firm" model where industries are increasingly characterized by "winner take most" competition, leading a small number of highly profitable (and low labor share) firms to command growing market share. Building on Autor...

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English / 01/05/2017

How well does the OWA operator represent real preferences?

We present the results of an empirical study, in which we analyze the ability of the Ordered Weighted Average (OWA) operator to model actual preferences in a multi-attribute ranking task. We compare the OWA to a competing model (Simple Additive Weighting SAW), and we also study whether its characteristic feature, the ability to represent different attitudes toward compensation among...

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English / 01/05/2017

Functional connectivity between prefrontal and parietal cortex drives visuo-spatial attention shifts

It is well established that the frontal eye-fields (FEF) in the dorsal attention network (DAN) guide top-down selective attention. In addition, converging evidence implies a causal role for the FEF in attention shifting, which is also known to recruit the ventral attention network (VAN) and fronto-striatal regions. To investigate the causal influence of the FEF as (part of) a central...

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English / 01/05/2017

Spillover effects of institutions on cooperative behavior, preferences, and beliefs

Institutions are an important means for fostering prosocial behaviors, but in many contexts their scope is limited and they govern only a subset of all socially desirable acts. We study experimentally how the presence and nature of an institution that enforces prosocial behavior in one domain affects behavior in a similar but unregulated domain. Groups play two identical public good...

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English / 01/05/2017

Income taxes, sorting and the costs of housing: evidence from municipal boundaries in Switzerland

We provide novel evidence on the role of income taxes for housing rents and spatial sorting. Drawing on comprehensive micro-level data, we estimate the responsiveness of households to tax differentials across municipal boundaries. Correcting for unobservable location characteristics and isolating the residential sorting component, we identify an income tax elasticity of rents of...

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English / 01/05/2017

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