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Scalable high-dimensional dynamic stochastic economic modeling

We present a highly parallelizable and flexible computational method to solve high-dimensional stochastic dynamic economic models. Solving such models often requires the use of iterative methods, like time iteration or dynamic programming. By exploiting the generic iterative structure of this broad class of economic problems, we propose a parallelization scheme that favors hybrid...

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English / 01/11/2015

Does competition justify inequality?

Are competitive mechanisms perceived as just sources of economic inequality? Perceptions of fairness violations can have severe economic consequences, as they may cause counterproductive behavior such as rulebook slowdowns or quality shading. To analyze fairness perceptions associated with competitive mechanisms, we run laboratory experiments where a single powerful buyer can trade...

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English / 01/11/2015

On the equivalence of Bayesian and dominant strategy implementation: the case of non-linear utilities

We extend the equivalence between Bayesian and dominant strategy implementation established by Gershkov et al. (Econometrica, 2013) to environments with non-linear utilities satisfying the average single-crossing property and the convex-valued assumption. The new equivalence result produces novel implications to the literature on the principal-agent problem with allocative...

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English / 01/11/2015

Pensionsreform ungelöst

Die Rendite der AHV sollte sich dem veränderten Produktionswachstum und der demografischen Entwicklung anpassen, die zweite Säule sollte sich strikt nach den Marktzinsen richten, schreibt Fabrizio Zilibotti.

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English / 01/11/2015

Why trade matters after all

I show that accounting for cross-industry variation in trade elasticities greatly magnifies the estimated gains from trade. The main idea is as simple as it is general: while imports in the average industry do not matter too much, imports in some industries are critical to the functioning of the economy, so that a complete shutdown of international trade is very costly overall.

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English / 01/11/2015

Firm and market response to saving constraints: evidence from the Kenyan dairy industry

This paper documents how saving constraints can spill over into other markets. When producers value saving devices, trustworthy buyers can offer them infrequent payments—a commitment tool—and purchase at a lower price. This affects the nature of competition in the output market. We present a model of this interlinked saving-output market for the case of the Kenyan dairy industry....

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English / 01/11/2015

Liquidity Management in Banking: What is the Role of Leverage?

This paper examines potential impacts of banks' leverage on their incentives to manage their liquidity. We analyze a model where banks control their liquidity risk by managing their liquid asset positions. In the basic framework, a model with a single bank, where the possibility of selling long-term assets when in need of liquidity is not taken into account, we find that the...

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English / 31/10/2015

Nobelpreis für Angus Deaton : ein findiger Vermesser der Ökonomie

Der Wirtschaftsforscher Angus Deaton hat die Entwicklungsökonomie geprägt. Dank seinen bahnbrechenden Beiträgen konnte dokumentiert werden, wie sich über die Zeit der Wohlstand in der Welt erhöht hat.

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Deutsch / 17/10/2015

The motives for financial complexity: An empirical investigation

This paper investigates the motives for financial complexity by focusing on a large market of investment products exclusively targeted to households. We develop a robust measure of complexity by performing a text analysis of the term sheets of 55,000 retail structured products issued in 17 European countries since 2002. We first find that the complexity of structured products has...

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English / 09/10/2015

Attention misallocation, social welfare and policy implications

We examine how agents allocate attention between private and public signals to reduce the uncertainty about observation noises when coordination is an important concern. In this setting, the attention allocation may not be monotone in endowed attention capacity. Agents may decrease their attention on or even ignore the more accurate signal when capacity increases. As a result, social...

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English / 01/10/2015

Real options and risk dynamics

We examine the asset pricing implications of a neoclassical model of repeated investment and disinvestment. Prior research has emphasized a negative relation between productivity and equity risk that results from operating leverage when capital adjustment is costly. In general, however, expansion and contraction options affect risk in the opposite direction: they lower equity risk as...

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English / 01/10/2015

State capacity and military conflict

Powerful, centralized states controlling a large share of national income only begin to appear in Europe after 1500. We build a model that explains their emergence in response to the increasing importance of money for military success. When fiscal resources are not crucial for winning wars, the threat of external conflict stifles state-building. As finance becomes critical,...

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English / 01/10/2015

Explaining structural change towards and within the financial sector

This paper presents a 3x3 general equilibrium model of an OLG-economy with technological uncertainty, heterogeneous agents and quasi-homothetic preferences to analyze structural change between the real and the financial sector as well as within the financial sector. Besides the consumption and investment good two types of financial services are produced. The three factors of...

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English / 01/10/2015

Allais at the Horse Race: testing models of ambiguity aversion

Most models of ambiguity aversion satisfy Anscombe-Aumann’s Monotonicity axiom. This paper proposes a test of Monotonicity, the Allais Horse Race. It is an adaptation of the Allais paradox to a setting with both subjective and objective uncertainty. Viewed as a thought experiment, the Allais Horse Race allows for introspective assessment of Monotonicity. Imple- menting it as an...

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English / 01/10/2015

Katalonien und die «natürlichen» Grenzen

Regionale Spannungen werden die Instabilität in der EU weiter verschärfen. Der beste Rat für Brüssel dürfte sein, bloss sicherzustellen, dass diese Konflikte friedlich gelöst werden.

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Deutsch / 01/10/2015

Do People Seek to Maximize Their Subjective Well‐Being?

In a new survey we ask respondents, after a standard Subjective Well‐Being (SWB) question, if they can think of changes in their lives that would improve their SWB score. If the SWB score is just one argument among others in the respondents’ goals in life, they should easily find ways to improve it, at the expense of other dimensions they care about. Our results suggest that close to...

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English / 01/10/2015

Abbau von Hemmnissen für Sanierungen von Liegenschaften institutioneller Investoren (HEMSAN)

Der vorliegende Bericht untersucht, welches die Hemmnisse und Anreize für institutionelle Investoren sind, um Investitionen in energetisch wirksame Erneuerungen von Renditeliegenschaften zu tätigen. Aufgrund einer ersten Analyse anhand von Literatur und Interviews kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass insbesondere eine mangelnde Rendite für die Eigentümer ein Problem sein kann. Dabei...

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Deutsch / 30/09/2015

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