infonet-economy

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.

This paper explores cultural integration paths of eight migrant groups in Switzerland. It specifically analyzes the evolution of objective behaviors and subjective attitudes of migrants from the first to the second generation. In order to deepen the analysis, the cultural integration of migrants is further examined from different perspectives: across cohorts (older vs. younger…

The aim of this paper is to determine the size of fiscal multipliers (spending and tax multipliers) using a structural vector autoregressive model for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). This is the first attempt of its kind for the BiH economy. The results show that the spending multiplier is higher than the tax multiplier, as expected. The tax multiplier has a negative effect on output…

We model merger control procedures as a process of sequential acquisition of information in which mergers can be cleared after a first phase of investigation. We find that the enforceability of clearance decisions at the end of the first phase is unattractive to the extent that it prevents the authorities to use their expectations as to whether evidence gathered in the first phase…

We estimate public investment gaps in a sample of developing countries using a public investment demand function. We then use GDP per capita projections, forecasts of structural transformation, and three SDG targets (poverty, infant mortality and lower secondary school completion) to predict public investment needs in 2030 among IDB borrowing countries. Our estimates suggest that in…

This paper documents the novel fact that Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) decrease bilateral trade imbalances as measured by conventional measure of the net export share in gross trade. While on average an RTA decreases bilateral trade imbalance by 7%, greater trade integration through a deeper RTA is associated with a reduction of up to 50% among the sample of over 160 countries…

While the central bank observes market activity to assess economic fundamentals, it shapes the market outcome through the conduct of monetary policy. A dilemma arises from this dual role because the more the central bank shapes the market, the more it influences the informational content of market prices. This paper analyses the optimal monetary policy action and disclosure when…

This study aims to analyse the discretionary fiscal policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period 2003-2015 using the structural budget balance (SBB). The SBB considers the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The SBBs in Azerbaijan and Russia experience a…

There is a growing body of evidence that many entrepreneurs seem to enter and persist in entrepreneurship despite earning low risk-adjusted returns. This has lead to attempts to provide explanations—using both standard economic theory and behavioral economics—for why certain individuals may be attracted to such an apparently unprofitable activity. Drawing on research in behavioral…