Publications des institutions partenaires
Maduro Bonds
For multiple decades, activists have sought to institute an international legal regime that limits the ability of despotic governments to borrow money and then shift those obligations onto more democratic successor governments. Our goal in this article is to raise the possibility of an alternate legal path to raising the costs of borrowing for despotic regimes. All countries have…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 28/09/2018
WP - 2018-09-14 - Stephan Imhof, Cyril Monnet and Shengxing Zhang: The Risk-Taking Channel of Liquidity Regulations and Monetary Policy
We develop a theoretical model to study the implications of liquidity regulations and monetary policy on deposit-making and risk-taking. Banks give risky loans by creating deposits that firms use to pay suppliers. Firms and banks can take more or less risk. In equilibrium, higher liquidity requirements always lower risk at the cost of lower investment. Nevertheless, a positive…
Institution partenaire
English / 14/09/2018
WP - 2018-08-30 - Andreas M. Fischer, Henrike Groeger, Philip U. Sauré and Pinar Yesin: Current account adjustment and retained earnings
This paper develops a formal strategy to calculate current accounts with retained earnings (RE) on equity investment and analyzes their adjustment during the global financial crisis. RE are the part of companies' profits which are reinvested and not distributed to shareholders as dividends. International statistical standards treat RE on foreign direct investment and RE on portfolio…
Institution partenaire
English / 30/08/2018
Trade linkages and firm value: evidence from the 2018 US-China "trade war"
On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the "Trade War" between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 21/08/2018
WP - 2018-08-17 - Maxime Phillot and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch: Inflation Expectations: The Effect of Question Ordering on Forecast Inconsistencies
Expectations are key in modern macroeconomics. However, due to their scant measurability, policymakers often rely on survey data. It is thus of critical importance to know the limits of survey data use. We look at inflation expectations as measured through the Deloitte CFO Survey Switzerland and respondents' sensitivity to question ordering thereof. In particular, we investigate…
Institution partenaire
English / 17/08/2018
WP - 2018-07-13 - Alex Cukierman and Thomas Lustenberger: International Evidence on Professional Interest Rate Forecasts: The Impact of Forecasting Ability
This paper develops a model of honest rational professional forecasters with different abilities and submits it to empirical verification using data on 3- and 12-months ahead forecasts of short-term interest rates and of long-term bond yields for up to 33 countries collected by Consensus Economics. The main finding is that in many countries, less-precise forecasters weigh public…
Institution partenaire
English / 13/07/2018
WP - 2018-07-13 - Andreas M. Fischer and Lucca Zachmann: Do the rich pay their taxes early?
This paper examines the effects of household income on interest credits from early tax payments. The hypothesis that the richest households from high-income municipalities pay their income taxes early is tested in a demand specification for interest credit for early tax payments. The empirical analysis uses regional data from 170 municipalities in the canton of Zurich from 2007 to…
Institution partenaire
English / 13/07/2018
WP - 2018-07-13 - Thomas Nitschka: Did China's anti-corruption campaign affect the risk premium on stocks of global luxury goods firms?
Media reports suggest that the recent Chinese anti-corruption campaign adversely influenced business prospects of globally operating luxury goods firms. This paper empirically tests this hypothesis. This paper finds that risk-adjusted returns on stock portfolios consisting of luxury goods firms with high exposure to China shifted persistently downward around the launch of the anti-…
Institution partenaire
English / 13/07/2018
Eurobonds past and present: a comparative review on debt mutualization in Europe
This paper reviews the economic and historical literature on debt mutualization in Europe with reference to pre-1914 guaranteed bonds and current Eurobonds debate. We emphasize that, notwithstanding the differences in scale and nature, debt mutualization solutions similar to Eurobonds were tried before, and the closest historical examples to the present debate are the pre-1914…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 09/07/2018
Can countries rely on foreign saving for investment and economic development ?
Contrary to widespread presumption, a surprisingly large number of countries have been able to finance a significant fraction of their investment for extended periods using foreign finance. While many of these episodes are in countries where official finance is important, we also identify episodes where a substantial fraction of domestic investment is financed by private capital…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 15/06/2018
Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: the role of credit constraints
We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty -measured by stock market volatility- reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. The mechanism at play is that during periods of high uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the composition of investment by reducing productivity-enhancing investment- such as on ICT capital-…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 15/06/2018
The bank lending channel: a time-varying approach
Using a cross-country panel of 925 banks from 19 advanced economies, for the period 1981-2016, I examine how the bank lending channel of monetary policy has evolved over time. I find that the sensitivity of lending to bank balance sheet liquidity declines over time, with nearly all the reduction occurring between the early 1990s and the early 2000s. Contrary to normal times, during…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 11/06/2018
The evolution of the EU law against criminal finance: the "hardening" of FATF standards within the EU
This article examines the recent evolution of the EU anti-money-laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) legislative framework, focusing on the relationship between the main international standards in the field and the newest EU legislation. It suggests that international soft law norms—in particular, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations—have had a…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 11/06/2018
WP - 2018-06-05 - Basil Guggenheim, Mario Meichle and Thomas Nellen: Confederation debt management since 1970
This paper presents new data vintages on marketable debt emissions and total outstanding debt. The data are used to analyze the Swiss Confederation’s issuing behavior and debt management. Issuing behavior became more regular and demand-oriented during the early 1990s. The Treasury actively manages roll-over risk by increasing bond maturity with increasing marketable debt to GDP…
Institution partenaire
English / 05/06/2018
Foreign currency bank funding and global factors
The literature on drivers of capital flows stresses the prominent role of global financial factors. Recent empirical work, however, highlights how this role varies across countries and time, and this heterogeneity is not well understood. We revisit this question by focusing on financial intermediaries' funding flows in different currencies. A portfolio model shows that the sign and…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 29/05/2018
WP - 2018-05-28 - Lucas Marc Fuhrer, Basil Guggenheim and Matthias Jüttner: What do Swiss franc Libor futures really tell us?
This paper sheds light on Swiss franc Libor futures, which are often used to measure interest rate expectations. We show that the differences between Libor futures and realized rates (excess returns) are, on average, positive over the last 25 years. Using interest rate surveys, we decompose excess returns into a (forward) term premium and forecast errors. The decomposition reveals…
Institution partenaire
English / 28/05/2018
Does public debt crowd out corporate investment?: international evidence
Using data for advanced and emerging economies, we show that there is a negative correlation between public debt and corporate investment. Industry-level regressions show that high levels of government debt are particularly damaging for industries that need more external financial resources. Firm-level regressions show that government debt increases the sensitivity of corporate…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 24/05/2018
Busier than ever?: a data-driven assessment and forecast of WTO caseload
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 24/05/2018
WP - 2018-05-18 - Barthélémy Bonadio, Andreas M. Fischer and Philip Sauré: The speed of exchange rate pass-through
On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank discontinued its minimum exchange rate policy of one euro against 1.2 Swiss francs. This policy shift resulted in a sharp, unanticipated and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc by more than 11% against the euro. We analyze the pass-through of this unusually clean exchange rate shock into import unit values at the daily frequency…
Institution partenaire
English / 18/05/2018
Financing for development: editor's introduction
In this double issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy we publish a set of papers concerned with the mobilization of domestic and foreign capital in support of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals that were launched in September 2015. The papers were originally presented at a conference on 'Financing for Development' organized by the International Monetary Fund and…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 04/05/2018
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