infonet-economy

A stated objective of the Australian Plain Packaging Act 2011 is to reduce smoking prevalence. We use the Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) data set over the time period January 2001 to December 2013 to analyze whether this goal has been achieved in the first year since the implementation. In particular, we carry out a statistical trend analysis to study the (possible) effect of…

This paper carries out an empirical investigation of the impact on bond spreads of the announcement, purchases and exit from the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchase program in 2009–2010. We find evidence in favor of a narrowing yield spread of covered bonds as a result of the program. The effect materialized in the days following the announcement of the Swiss National Bank’s…

This paper proposes a novel approach to portfolio revision. The current literature
on portfolio optimization uses a somewhat naïve approach, where portfolio weights are always completely revised after a predefined fixed period. However, one shortcoming of this procedure is that it ignores parameter uncertainty in the estimated portfolio weights, as well as the biasedness of the…

We analyze the impact of renewable energies, wind and photovoltaic, on the formation of day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. We give an overview of the policy decisions concerning the promotion of renewable energy sources in Germany, and discuss their consequences on day-ahead prices. An analysis of electricity spot prices reveals that the introduction of renewable energies enhances…

China wird sich nicht von der EU abwenden, nur weil es einen Gasdeal mit Russland schließt. Das sagt der italienische Ökonom und Chinakenner Fabrizio Zilibotti. Interview: Axel Hansen

Das Management von Risiken bedingt eine umfassende Auseinandersetzung mit statistischen Wahrscheinlichkeiten, Erfahrungswerten und möglichen Auswirkungen. Insofern ist das Potenzial von Big Data für die Versicherungswirtschaft kaum hoch genug einzuschätzen. Dem steht die gesellschaftliche Dimension entgegen: Führt die fortschreitende Individualisierung der Risikobetrachtung nicht zu…

This paper analyzes the reaction of the S&P 500 returns to changes in implied volatility given by the VIX index, using a daily data sample from 1990 to 2012. We found that in normal regimes increases (declines) in the expected market volatility result in lower (higher) subsequent stock market returns. Thus, investors enter into selling positions upon a perception of increased…

A key stated objective of the Australian Plain Packaging Act 2011 is to influence smoking prevalence, in particular of minors. We use the Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) data set on minors, (that is, Australians aged 14 to 17 years) over the time period January 2001 to December 2013 to analyze whether there is evidence that this goal has been achieved. We carry out a statistical…

Can infrastructure investment win "hearts and minds"? We analyze a famous case in the early stages of dictatorship - the building of the motorway network in Nazi Germany. The Autobahn was one of the most important projects of the Hitler government. It was intended to reduce unemployment, and was widely used for propaganda purposes. We examine its role in increasing support…