Publications des institutions partenaires
2421 - 2440 of 7542
Surprise beyond prediction error
Surprise drives learning. Various neural “prediction error” signals are believed to underpin surprise-based reinforcement learning. Here, we report a surprise signal that reflects reinforcement learning but is neither un/signed reward prediction error (RPE) nor un/signed state prediction error (SPE). To exclude these alternatives, we measured surprise responses in the absence of RPE…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/09/2014
Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?
We analyze whether newspaper content can predict aggregate future stock returns. Our study is based on articles published in the Handelsblatt, a leading German Financial newspaper, from July 1989 to March 2011. We summarize newspaper content in a systematic way by constructing word-count indices for a large number of words. Wordcount indices are instantly available and therefore…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/09/2014
Hysteresis in Potential Ourtput and Monetary Policy
We show that actively stabilizing economic activity plays a more prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy when potential output is subject to hysteresis. We augment a basic New Keynesian model by hysteresis in potential output and contrast simulation outcomes of this extended model to the standard model. We find that considering hysteresis allows for a more realistic…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/09/2014
The macroeconomics of Model T
We study a model of growth and mass production. Firms undertake either product innovations that introduce new luxury goods for the rich; or process innovations that transform existing luxuries into mass products for the poor. A prototypical example for such a product cycle is the automobile. Initially, an exclusive product for the very rich, the automobile became affordable to the…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/09/2014
Monitoring public procurement: evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Chile
The government is the biggest buyer in the economy of most countries. At the same time, the public procurement process if often thought to be fraught with corruption and malpractice. However, there is little evidence regarding the impact of audits aimed at reducing such malpractice. This paper investigates the effect of being audited on public entities' subsequent procurement…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/09/2014
Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility
Scholars have been examining the relationship between fertility and unemployment for more than a century. Most studies find that fertility falls with unemployment in the short run, but it is not known whether these negative effects persist, because women simply may postpone childbearing to better economic times. Using more than 140 million US birth records for the period 1975–2010,…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/09/2014
Volatile top income shares in Switzerland? Reassessing the evolution between 1981 and 2009
Institution partenaire
English / 31/08/2014
From left-skewness to symmetry: how body-height distribution among Swiss conscripts has changed shape since the late 19th century
Institution partenaire
English / 26/08/2014
Stress-testing for portfolios of commodities : 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014, Davos
Institution partenaire
English / 24/08/2014
Griechenland und die 'Meinungen' der Ratingagenturen : (in griechischer Sprache)
Institution partenaire
Deutsch / 24/08/2014
Klagerecht von Ländern gegen falsche Ratings : Interview mit Yannis Palaiologos
Institution partenaire
Deutsch / 24/08/2014
Standard & Poor's fachliche Ignoranz und Unkenntnis der eigenen Methodologie : Gespräch mit Maria Adamidou
Institution partenaire
Deutsch / 24/08/2014
Unique Equilibrium in Contests with a Continuum of Types
It is shown that rent-seeking contests with continuous and independent type distributions possess a unique pure-strategy Nash equilibrium.
Institution partenaire
English / 23/08/2014
Ancillary benefits of GHG abatement policies in developing countries: a literature survey
In this subtask we survey the literature that estimates the ancillary benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement in developing countries, and the extent to which its findings can be transferred across countries. Specifically, we focus upon the health benefits from emission reduction in developing nations. In order to evaluate the spillovers and indirect benefits that a country could…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 15/08/2014
Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective
We study the interactions between global population, technological progress, per capita income, the demand for food, and agricultural land expansion over the period 1960 to 2100.We formulate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with a Barro-Becker representation of endogenous fertility. A manufacturing sector provides a consumption good and an agricultural sector provides food to…
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 15/08/2014
Radius matching on the propensity score with bias adjustment: finite sample behaviour, tuning parameters and software implementation
Using a simulation design that is based on empirical data, a recent study by Huber, Lechner and Wunsch (2012) finds that distance-weighted radius matching with bias adjustment as proposed in Lechner, Miquel and Wunsch (2011) is competitive among a broad range of propensity score-based estimators used to correct for mean differences due to observable covariates. In this paper, we…
Institution partenaire
English / 02/08/2014
Employment polarization and the role of the apprenticeship system
This paper studies the effects of the apprenticeship system on innovation and labor market polarization. A stylized model with two key features is developed: (1) apprentices are more productive due to industry-specific training, but (2) from the firm’s perspective, when training apprentices, technological innovation is costly since training becomes obsolete. Thus, apprentices…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/08/2014
China’s great convergence and beyond
A recent wave of economic research has studied the transformation of China from a poor country in the 1970s to a middle-income economy today. Based on this literature, we discuss the factors driving China’s development process. We provide a historical account of China’s rise, fall, and resurgence. We then discuss the stylized facts associated with China’s growth process and review a…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/08/2014
The neurobiology of rewards and values in social decision making
How does our brain choose the best course of action? Choices between material goods are thought to be steered by neural value signals that encode the rewarding properties of the choice options. Social decisions, by contrast, are traditionally thought to rely on neural representations of the self and others. However, recent studies show that many types of social decisions may also…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/08/2014
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