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A spot-forward model for electricity prices with regime shifts

We propose a novel regime-switching approach for the simulation of electricity spot prices that is inspired by the class of fundamental models and takes into account the relation between spot and forward prices. Additionally the model is able to reproduce spikes and negative prices. Market prices are derived given an observed forward curve. We distinguish between a base regime and an…

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English / 20/02/2015

Anticipatory anxiety disrupts neural valuation during risky choice

Incidental negative emotions unrelated to the current task, such as background anxiety, can strongly influence decisions. This is most evident in psychiatric disorders associated with generalized emotional disturbances. However, the neural mechanisms by which incidental emotions may affect choices remain poorly understood. Here we study the effects of incidental anxiety on human…

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English / 18/02/2015

Automatic versus choice-dependent value representations in the human brain

The subjective values of choice options can impact on behavior in two fundamentally different types of situations: first, when people explicitly base their actions on such values, and second, when values attract attention despite being irrelevant for current behavior. Here we show with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) that these two behavioral functions of values are…

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English / 18/02/2015

Social discounting involves modulation of neural value signals by temporoparietal junction

Most people are generous, but not toward everyone alike: generosity usually declines with social distance between individuals, a phenomenon called social discounting. Despite the pervasiveness of social discounting, social distance between actors has been surprisingly neglected in economic theory and neuroscientific research. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to…

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English / 03/02/2015

Evidence for countercyclical risk aversion: an experiment with financial professionals

A key ingredient of many popular asset pricing models is that investors exhibit countercyclical risk aversion, which helps explain major economic puzzles such as the strong and systematic variation in risk premiums over time and the high volatility of asset prices. There is, however, surprisingly little evidence for this assumption because it is difficult to control for the host of…

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English / 01/02/2015

Reference points, social norms, and fairness in contract renegotiations

How does an ex-ante contract affect behavior in an ex-post renegotiation game? We address this question in a canonical buyer–seller relationship with renegotiation. Our paper provides causal experimental evidence that an initial contract has a highly significant and economically important
impact on renegotiation behavior that goes beyond the effect of contracts on bargaining…

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English / 01/02/2015

On the origin of r-concavity and related concepts

In a less widely known contribution, Béla Martos (1966, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) introduced a generalized notion of concavity that is closely related to what is nowadays known as r-concavity in the operations research literature, and that is identical to what is nowadays known as ρ-concavity in the economics literature. The present paper aims at making the original…

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English / 01/02/2015

Pragmatismus aus Prinzip

Wer glaubt, dass sich das Problem Griechenland nur mit Härte lösen lasse, riskiert, dass im Namen falsch verstandener ökonomischer Prinzipien grosser Schaden entsteht.

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Deutsch / 01/02/2015

The Dynamic Impact of Unilateral Environmental Policies

This paper builds a two-country, two-sector (polluting, nonpolluting) trade model with directed technical change, examining whether unilateral environmental policies can ensure sustainable growth. The polluting good generates more or less emissions depending on its relative use of a clean and a dirty input. I show that a unilateral policy combining clean research subsidies and a…

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English / 01/02/2015

Ghost-house busters: the electoral response to a large anti–tax evasion program

The incentives of political agents to enforce tax collection are key determinants of the levels of compliance. We study the electoral response to the Ghost Buildings program, a nationwide anti tax evasion policy in Italy that used innovative monitoring technologies to target buildings hidden from tax authorities. The program induced monetary and non-monetary benefits for non-evaders…

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English / 01/02/2015

A quantitative analysis of subsidy competition in the U.S.

What motivates regional governments to subsidize firm relocations and what are the implications of the subsidy competition among them? In this paper, I address these questions using a quantitative economic geography model which I calibrate to U.S. states. I show that states have strong incentives to subsidize firm relocations in order to gain at the expense of other states. I also…

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English / 01/02/2015

Do Long-term Unemployed Workers Benefit from Targeted Wage Subsidies?

We evaluate a wage subsidy program that is targeted at long-term unemployed
workers in Germany. We use an alternative identification procedure compared to
empirical studies conducted so far. Exploiting the particular program regulations and
large administrative data we estimate the impact of program availability using a regression discontinuity framework. Our…

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English / 01/02/2015

Innovation and Trade in the Presence of Credit Constraints

This paper examines how trade liberalization affects investments in R&D at the firm level. In a model where entrepreneurs are heterogeneous in their wealth endowment, they rely differently on external funds. In the presence of capital market imperfections, this implies heterogeneous access to external funds such that poor entrepreneurs run smaller firms, are less likely to invest…

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English / 01/02/2015

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