Publications des institutions partenaires

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Heterogeneous Expectations, International Consumption Correlations, and Common Risk Factors in World Stock Markets

This paper establishes a surprising and robust empirical similarity between short-run heterogeneous consumption and long-term consumption growth risk models. The models not only deliver a similar fit on a given set of portfolios, their actual pricing errors are also highly correlated. In addition, we find that consumption dispersion is a robust predictor of the transitory component…

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English / 01/03/2008

The effect of trade openness on optimal government size under endogenous firm entry

This paper analyzes the effect of trade liberalization on government spending in a general equilibrium model with a continuum of industries supplying tradable and nontradable goods under monopolistic competition. Trade liberalization is modeled as the opening up of product markets between two countries, which may differ in total factor productivity, factor endowment and fix cost…

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English / 01/03/2008

Stochastic Expected Utility and Prospect Theory in a Horse Race: A Finite Mixture Approach

This study compares the performance of Prospect Theory versus Stochastic Expected Utility Theory at fitting data on decision making under risk. Both theories incorporate well-known deviations from Expected Utility Maximization such as the Allais paradox or the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. Stochastic Expected Utility Theory parsimoniously extends the standard microeconomic…

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English / 01/03/2008

Performance Assessments With Microworlds and Their Difficulty

The use of microworlds (MWs), or complex dynamic systems, in educational testing and personnel selection is hampered by systematic measurement errors because these new and innovative item formats are not adequately controlled for their difficulty. This empirical study introduces a way to operationalize an MW's difficulty and demonstrates the strong effects of variations in it. A…

English / 01/03/2008

Biofuels and WTO Disciplines

Given the sharp rise in crude oil prices and growing awareness of climate change, the potential of biofuels, particularly of bioethanol, has become an ubiquitous topic of public debate and has induced ambitious policy initiatives. The latter are mostly paired with protectionist measures as the examples of the European Union and the United States show, where domestic producers of…

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English / 01/03/2008

Public Employment Services and Employers - How Important are Networks with Firms?

This paper examines whether contacts between caseworkers in public employment offices and employers impact on the reemployment chances of the unemployed they counsel. This analysis is made possible through a large administrative dataset on unemployed combined
with an extensive survey of caseworkers' characteristics and their strategies. This data was created for evaluating…

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English / 26/02/2008

Simulation-Based Pricing of Convertible Bonds

We propose and empirically study a pricing model for convertible bonds based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method uses parametric representations of the early exercise decisions and consists of two stages. Pricing convertible bonds with the proposed Monte Carlo approach allows us to better capture both the dynamics of the underlying state variables and the rich set of real-world…

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English / 12/02/2008

Homo neuro-oeconomicus: a landscape of ethical pitfalls in a changing economical paradigm

Neuroeconomics is one prominent example of the technology driven shift in social sciences. As a new and interdisciplinary field combining Neuroscience, Psychology and Economics, it is expected to provide the premise of fundamentally new insights into human behaviour and in improving the existing models in rational choice and game theory or to advance attempts in marketing. New…

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English / 09/02/2008

Local minimizers of functionals with multiple volume constraints

We study variational problems with volume constraints, i.e., with level sets of prescribed measure. We introduce a numerical method to approximate local minimizers and illustrate it with some two-dimensional examples. We demonstrate numerically nonexistence results which had been obtained analytically in previous work. Moreover, we show the existence of discontinuous dependence of…

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English / 07/02/2008

Prospect theory for continuous distributions

We extend the original form of prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky from finite lotteries to arbitrary probability distributions, using an approximation method based on weak-⋆ convergence. The resulting formula is computationally easier than the corresponding formula for cumulative prospect theory and makes it possible to use prospect theory in future applications in economics and…

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English / 01/02/2008

A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for multiple imputation in large surveys

Important empirical information on household behavior and household finances, used heavily by researchers, central banks, and for policy consulting, is obtained from surveys. However, various interdependent factors that can only be controlled to a limited extent lead to unit and item nonresponse, and missing data on certain items is a frequent source of difficulties in statistical…

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English / 01/02/2008

Rationality on the Rise: Why Relative Risk Aversion Increases with Stake Size

How does risk tolerance vary with stake size? This important question cannot be adequately answered if framing effects, nonlinear probability weighting, and heterogeneity of preference types are neglected. We show that, contrary to gains, no coherent change in relative risk aversion is observed for losses. The increase in relative risk aversion over gains cannot be captured by the…

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English / 01/02/2008

Providing Public Goods in the Absence of Strong Institutions

This paper proposes a simple two-stage mechanism to establishnpositive contributions to public goods in the absence of powerful institutions tonprovide the public good and to sanction free-riders. In this mechanism players commit to the public good by paying a deposit prior to the contribution stage.nIf there is universal commitment, deposits are immediately refunded whenever…

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English / 01/02/2008

A Note on Endogenous Control Variables in Evaluation Studies

The issue of potentially endogenous control variables in causal studies based on the assumption of no selection bias conditional on observables (conditional independence assumption, CIA) is discussed. The paper shows that the standard formulation of the CIA obscures the endogeneity problem. It suggests a CIA based on potential variables together with explicit exogeneity conditions,…

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English / 01/02/2008

What Did All the Money Do? On the General Ineffectiveness of Recent West German Labour Market Programmes

We provide new evidence on the effectiveness of West German labour market programmes by evaluating training and employment programmes that have been conducted 2000-2002 after the first large reform of German labour market policy in 1998. We employ exceptionally rich administrative data that allow us to use microeconometric matching methods and to estimate interesting effects for…

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English / 01/02/2008

Life-cycle effects of social security in an open economy: A theoretical and empirical survey

ENGLISH: Conventional wisdom views demographic change as a set of exogenous shocks impinging on social security, with the economy treated as a closed system. This contribution argues that demographics is nothing but the aggregate of individual decisions, which are influenced by social security. This claim is supported by both theoretical argument and empirical evidence with regard to…

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English / 31/01/2008

Small scale entry versus acquisitions of small firms: is concentration self-reinforcing?

We consider a reduced form model with acquisitions and entry. There are two investors and several small non-investing firms. One investor can acquire a small firm, the other investor decides about market entry. After that all firms play an oligopoly game. We derive conditions under which increasing market concentration arises with myopic firms. We apply the framework to a Cournot…

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English / 28/01/2008

Intimidating competitors - Endogenous vertical integration and downstream investment in successive oligopoly

This paper examines the interplay of endogenous vertical integration and cost-reducing downstream investment in successive oligopoly. Analyzing a linear Cournot model, we establish the following key results: (i) Vertical integration increases own investment and decreases competitor investment (intimidation effect). (ii) Asymmetric integration is a non-degenerate equilibrium outcome…

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English / 01/01/2008

Computational aspects of general equilibrium theory: refutable theories of value

This monograph presents a general equilibrium methodology for microeconomic policy analysis. It is intended to serve as an alternative to the now classical, axiomatic general equilibrium theory as exposited in Debreu`s Theory of Value (1959) or Arrow and Hahn`s General Competitive Analysis (1971).
The methodology proposed in this monograph does not presume the existence of…

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English / 01/01/2008

Computation of general equilibria (new developments)

In this article, I review two recent developments in the theory of computation of general equilibria. First, following Brown, DeMarzo and Eaves (1996) several papers have developed globally convergent algorithms for the computation of general equilibria in models with incomplete asset markets. I review some of the developments in that area. Second, new developments in computational…

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English / 01/01/2008

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