Publications des institutions partenaires
Aleksander Berentsen and Benjamin Müller: A Tale of Fire-Sales and Liquidity Hoarding
We extend the analysis of the theoretical interbank market model of Gale and Yorulmazer (2013) by introducing randomized trading (lotteries). In contrast to Gale and Yorulmazer, we find that fire-sale asset prices are efficient and that no liquidity hoarding occurs in equilibrium with lotteries. While Gale and Yorulmazer find that the market provides insufficient liquidity, we find…
Institution partenaire
English / 25/01/2018
David Haab and Thomas Nitschka: Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks
Stylized facts of asset return predictability are mainly based on evidence from the US, a large, closed economy, and, hence, are not necessarily representative of small, open economies. Furthermore, discountrate news mainly drive US asset returns. This is not the case in other economies. We use Switzerland as example to highlight the importance of these issues and to assess the…
Institution partenaire
English / 25/01/2018
Andreas M. Fischer, Rafael Greminger and Christian Grisse: Portfolio rebalancing in times of stress
This paper investigates time variation in the dynamics of international portfolio equity flows. We extend the empirical model of Hau and Rey (2004) by embedding a two-state Markov regime-switching model into the structural VAR. The model is estimated using monthly data for the period 1995-2015 on equity returns, exchange rate returns and equity flows between the United States and…
Institution partenaire
English / 25/01/2018
Christian Grisse and Silvio Schumacher: The response of long-term yields to negative interest rates: evidence from Switzerland
This paper studies the transmission of changes in short-term interest rates to longer-term government bond yields when interest rates are at very low levels or negative. We focus on Switzerland, where short-term interest rates have been at zero since late 2008 and negative since the beginning of 2015. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure implies that as nominal interest…
Institution partenaire
English / 25/01/2018
Petra Gerlach-Kristen, Richhild Moessner and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch: Computing long‐term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectation markets
We derive daily market‐based domestic long‐term inflation expectations for eight countries without inflation swap markets. To do so, we use foreign inflation swaps together with (1) foreign and domestic interest rate swaps assuming that purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) hold or together with (2) spot and forward exchange rates assuming…
Institution partenaire
English / 25/01/2018
Christian Grisse, Signe Krogstrup and Silvio Schumacher: Lower bound beliefs and long-term interest rates
We study the transmission of changes in the believed location of the lower bound to longterm interest rates since the introduction of negative interest rate policies. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure combined with a lower bound on policy rates suggests that the transmission of policy rate changes to long-term interest rates is reduced when policy rates approach this…
Institution partenaire
English / 25/01/2018
Ventral striatal dysfunction and symptom expression in individuals with schizotypal personality traits and early psychosis
Striatal abnormalities play a crucial role in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Growing evidence suggests an association between aberrant striatal activity during reward anticipation and symptom dimensions in schizophrenia. However, it is not clear whether this holds across the psychosis continuum. The aim of the present study was to investigate alterations of ventral striatal…
Institution partenaire
English / 13/01/2018
Mandat d'étude visant à l'élaboration d'une méthode destinée à lisser les recettes du canton de Neuchàtel et visant à évaluer le dispositif de frein à l'endettement
Chatagny, Florian
Institution partenaire
English, Deutsch / 11/01/2018
Contract withdrawals and equilibrium in competitive markets with adverse selection
Mimra, Wanda; Wambach, Achim
Institution partenaire
English, Deutsch / 01/01/2018
Are ratings the worst form of credit assessment apart from all the others?
We present a prediction model to forecast corporate defaults. In a theoretical model, under incomplete information in a market with publicly traded equity, we show that our approach must outperform ratings, Altman’s Z-score, and Merton’s distance to default. We reconcile the statistical and structural approaches under a common framework, i.e., our approach nests Altman’s and Merton’s…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
Balanced bootstrap joint confidence bands for structural impulse response functions
Constructing joint confidence bands for structural impulse response functions based on a VAR model is a difficult task because of the non-linear nature of such functions. We propose new joint confidence bands that cover the entire true structural impulse response function up to a chosen maximum horizon with a prespecified probability (1 − α), at least asymptotically. Such bands are…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
International arbitrage and the extensive margin of trade between rich and poor countries
We incorporate consumption indivisibilities into the Krugman (1980) model and show that an importer’s per capita income becomes a primary determinant of “export zeros”. Households in the rich North (poor South) are willing to pay high (low) prices for consumer goods; hence unconstrained monopoly pricing generates arbitrage opportunities for internationally traded products. Export…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
A dynamic North-South Model of Demand-induced Product Cycles
This paper presents a dynamic North-South general-equilibrium model where per capita incomes shape demand patterns across regions. Innovation takes place in a rich North while firms in a poor South imitate products manufactured in North. Allowing a role for per capita incomes in determining demand delivers a complete international product cycle as described by Vernon (1966), where…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
In the Shadow of Sunshine Regulation: Considering Disclosure Biases
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
Democratic epistemology and democratic morality: the appeal and challenges of peircean pragmatism
Does the wide distribution of political power in democracies, relative to other modes of government, result in better decisions? Specifically, do we have any reason to believe that they are better qualitatively – more reasoned, better supported by the available evidence, more deserving of support – than those which have been made by other means? In order to answer this question we…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
An inconvenient truth? Interpersonal and career consequences of “maybe baby” expectations
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
A computationally efficient framework for automatic inertial sensor calibration
The calibration of (low-cost) inertial sensors has become increasingly important over the past years since their use has grown exponentially in many applications going from unmanned aerial vehicle navigation to 3D-animation. However, this calibration procedure is often quite problematic since the signals issued from these sensors have a complex spectral structure and the methods…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
Guilty speculators? Range-based conditional volatility in a cross-section of wheat futures
In response to the unusually high levels of price volatility during the world food price crisis of 2007/2008, US and EU regulators have introduced position limits that aim to protect commodity markets from exposure to excess speculation. Such regulatory initiatives presuppose that excess speculation is indeed responsible for excess volatility. Our results debunk this presupposition…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
The Choice of Interest Rate Models and Its Effect on Bank Capital Requirement Regulation and Financial Stability
According to the Basel regulation banks may use internal risk models to measure interest rate risk and calculate regulatory capital requirements. Under its pillar II the Basel framework grants leeway to banks in their choice of these models. We therefore focus on how well interest rate models describe real interest rate movements empirically and which impact the model choice has on…
Institution partenaire
English / 01/01/2018
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