Publications des institutions partenaires

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A real-time GDP data set for Switzerland

This economic study presents and analyses newly collected real-time data for Swiss GDP. It extends existing data sets by covering annual and quarterly aggregate GDP values for a longer sample, with vintages starting in 1971 (annual) and 1983 (quarterly). The analysis comprises a graphical and statistical description of quarterly GDP releases and tests for unbiasedness and efficiency of the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Uniform-price auctions for Swiss government bonds: Origin and evolution

The Swiss Treasury has used the sealed-bid, uniform-price auction format for allocating government bonds since 1980. In this study, we examine the authorities' motivation for choosing the uniform-price auction. In addition, we describe how the institutional set-up evolved over time. It includes bidding requirements, class of bidders, pre-auction information, the bidding process, the determination...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Foreign PMIs: A reliable indicator for exports?

Foreign economic activity is a major determinant of export development. This paper presents an indicator for now- and forecasting exports, which is based on survey data that captures foreign economic perspectives. We construct an indicator by weighting foreign PMIs of main trading partners with their respective export shares. For two very trade exposed countries (Germany and Switzerland) the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Exchange Rate Predictability and State-of-the-Art Models

This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Forecasting with Large Unbalanced Datasets: The Mixed-Frequency Three-Pass Regression Filter

In this paper, we propose a modification of the three-pass regression filter (3PRF) to make it applicable to large mixed frequency datasets with ragged edges in a forecasting context. The resulting method, labeled MF-3PRF, is very simple but compares well to alternative mixed frequency factor estimation procedures in terms of theoretical properties, finite samle performance in Monte Carlo...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

How reliable are cointegration-based estimates for wealth effects on consumption? Evidence from Switzerland

According to economic theory, the intertemporal budget constraint of households implies that a permanent increase in wealth should have a positive effect on consumer spending. Given the comparatively strong increase in Swiss household wealth over the past few years, the question of the extent to which changes in wealth influence expenditures of households has become of special interest for...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Price expectations and the US housing boom

As it has proved difficult to explain the recent US house price boom on the basis of fundamentals, many observers have emphasised the role of speculation. This kind of argument is, however, indirect, as speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. Our paper identifies house price expectation shocks directly, using a VAR with sign restrictions. House price expectation shocks are the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

The banking sector and the Swiss financial account during the financial and European debt crises

The US financial crisis and the later eurozone crisis have substantially impacted capital flows into and out of financial centers like Switzerland. We focus on the pattern of capital flows involving the Swiss banking industry. We first rely on balance-of-payment statistics and show that net banking inflows rose during the acute phases of the crises, albeit with a contrasting pattern. In the wake...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc

The Swiss franc is known to appreciate strongly during financial market turmoil, demonstrating its status as a typical safe haven currency. One possible mechanism behind this appreciation during times of global turmoil is assumed to be higher capital inflows to Switzerland. This paper attempts to find some empirical evidence for this presumption. The analysis reveals that capital flow variables...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

On the roles of different foreign currencies in European bank lending

We draw on a new data set on the use of Swiss francs and other currencies by European banks to assess the patterns of foreign currency bank lending. We show that the patterns differ sharply across foreign currencies. The Swiss franc is used predominantly for lending to residents, especially households. It is sensitive to the interest rate differential, exchange rate developments, funding...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

A Lightweight User Tracking Method for App Providers Frey, Remo Manuel og Xu, Runhua og Ilic, Alexander

Institution partenaire

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich

Texte intégral(Allemand) - 2016

Braving the waves: the role of time and risk preferences in illegal migration from Senegal Mbaye, Linguère Mously

This paper aims to provide the first evidence concerning the relationship between time ans risk preferences and illegal migration in an African context. Based upon our theoretical model and using a unique data set on potential migrants collected in urban Senegal, we evaluate a measure of time and risk preferences through the individual's intertemporal discount rate and coefficient of absolute...

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Options for trade, finance and development: getting the institutions right Arcand, Jean-Louis L

The basic tenet of the present policy paper is that economic institutions are the key determinant of economic growth and development, and that policy-makers and developing country governments dealing with trade and finance must concentrate on "getting the institutions right.” In order to be implementable, policy recommendations must correct inefficiencies that the market system will not,...

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

The quest to lower high remittance costs to Africa: a brief review of the use of mobile banking and bitcoins Kingombe, Christian K.M.

The paper reviews the latest technological tools that arguably can contribute to reducing the excessively high costs of remittance transactions in Africa. Indeed, despite huge remittance inflows to and within the continent, Africa is the most expensive destination to send money to. As remittances have become more important than Overseas Development Assistance and Foreign Direct Investment...

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

The World Trade Organization and the future of multilateralism Baldwin, Richard E

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Framing the 'public morals' exception after EC - seal products with insights from the ECTHR and the GATT National Security exception Möllenhoff, Julia

In light of the recent EC – Seal Products dispute in the WTO involving the public morals exception of GATT XX(a), this thesis aims at finding criteria to delimit the scope of this concept, to prevent that WTO Members could justify largely any trade measure under this exception. To this end, insights from a comparison to the GATT National Security exception, and from the European Court of Human...

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

The new gold standard?: empirically situating the TPP in the investment treaty universe Skougarevskiy, Dmitriy

The Transpacific Partnership (TPP) has been labelled a "new, high-standard trade agreement”. But just how "new” and "high” are the standards it sets? In this paper, we answer this question in relation to the TPP investment chapter. Combining traditional legal analysis with computational text comparisons we are able to situate the TPP in the wider universe of international investment...

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Why give aid to resource-rich autocrats? Swanson, Tim

Why give aid to resource-rich autocrats? We find that the interaction between natural resources and most forms of international aid results in enhanced political instability in most autocratic countries. Interestingly, some types of government aid (notably humanitarian aid) do not have this effect, indicating that the impact of aid varies with its form. Furthermore, we find that only aid...

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016

Oil price pass-through into inflation: the evidence from oil exporting countries Karimli, Tural ... [et al.]

This paper evaluates different channels of oil price pass through into inflation for the countries Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. We propose a methodology to disentangle the effects of different channels after an oil price shock hits international markets. We measure the relative importance of the two distinct channels through which oil price shocks are transmitted into inflation in these...

Institution partenaire

Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Texte intégral(Anglais) - 2016


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