Economie du développement

The Hausmann–Gorky Effect

Description: 

On May 26, 2017, Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann published an Op Ed titled "Hunger Bonds", urging investors to avoid Venezuelan sovereign bonds on the grounds that the country was prioritizing payments on the bonds over remedying a humanitarian crisis. Contemporaneously, news emerged regarding a suspicious looking bond issue by Venezuela's oil company that was purchased largely by Goldman Sachs. That bond got tagged with the label "Hunger Bond", and suffered a price hit. Using both quantitative data and interviews with investors, we examine the causes of the Hunger Bond penalty, its impact on the prices of other outstanding Venezuelan bonds, and how long it was sustained. The primary determinants of the Hunger Bond penalty appear to have been a combination of negative press attention and crowd-sourced disapproval. For instance, we show that a large number of Google searches for "Hunger Bonds" are associated with a 200 basis point increase in the spread of the bond purchased by Goldman Sachs.

Eurobonds past and present: a comparative review on debt mutualization in Europe

Description: 

This paper reviews the economic and historical literature on debt mutualization in Europe with reference to pre-1914 guaranteed bonds and current Eurobonds debate. We emphasize that, notwithstanding the differences in scale and nature, debt mutualization solutions similar to Eurobonds were tried before, and the closest historical examples to the present debate are the pre-1914 guaranteed bonds. We highlight three key characteristics of debt mutualization, which are apparent both in the current debate and in history: moral hazard, debt dilution and conditionality. We show that the fears about short-run dilution and moral hazard were not unknown to pre-1914 market participants. These problems were partly addressed by mechanisms of conditionality such as international financial control. The historical evidence suggests that the dilution of outstanding obligations may be overplayed in the current debate. On the contrary, creditors' moral hazard (ignored in current debt mutualization proposals) was as problematic as the usual debtor's moral hazard –especially when the groups of countries guaranteeing the bonds and the creditor nations did not overlap entirely.

Can countries rely on foreign saving for investment and economic development ?

Description: 

Contrary to widespread presumption, a surprisingly large number of countries have been able to finance a significant fraction of their investment for extended periods using foreign finance. While many of these episodes are in countries where official finance is important, we also identify episodes where a substantial fraction of domestic investment is financed by private capital inflows. Although there is evidence of a positive growth effect of such inflows in the short run, that positive impact dissipates after 5 years and turns negative over longer horizons. Many such episodes end abruptly, with compression of the current account and sharp slowdowns in investment and growth. Summing over the inflow (current account deficit) episode and its aftermath, we find that growth is slower than when countries rely on domestic savings. The implication is that financing growth and investment out of foreign savings, while not impossible, is risky and too often counterproductive.

Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: the role of credit constraints

Description: 

We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty -measured by stock market volatility- reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. The mechanism at play is that during periods of high uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the composition of investment by reducing productivity-enhancing investment- such as on ICT capital- which is more subject to liquidity risks (Aghion et al., 2010). The effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method-a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth of 25 industries from 18 advanced economies over the period 1985–2010-mitigates concerns with omitted variable bias and reverse causality. The results are robust to the inclusion of other sources of interaction effects, instrumental variable approaches, and different datasets. The results also hold if economic policy uncertainty (Baker et al., 2016) is used instead of stock market volatility as a measure of aggregate uncertainty.

Financing for development: editor's introduction

Description: 

In this double issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy we publish a set of papers concerned with the mobilization of domestic and foreign capital in support of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals that were launched in September 2015. The papers were originally presented at a conference on 'Financing for Development' organized by the International Monetary Fund and the Centre for Finance and Development at the Graduate Institute in Geneva in April 2015.

The Hausmann-Gorky effect

Description: 

For over a century, legal scholars have debated the question of what to do about the debts incurred by despotic governments; asking whether successor non-despotic governments should have to pay them. That debate has gone nowhere. This paper examines whether an Op Ed written by Harvard economist, Ricardo Hausmann, in May 2017, may have shown an alternative path to the goal of increasing the cost of borrowing for despotic governments. Hausmann, in his Op Ed, had sought to produce a pricing penalty on the entire Venezuelan debt stock by trying to shame JPMorgan into removing Venezuelan bonds from its emerging market index. JPMorgan did not comply, but there was a pricing penalty. Intriguingly, the penalty hit only one bond; an issue by Venezuela's state-owned oil company that went on the market two days prior to the Hausmann's piece. That bond then began to carry the name in the market of "Hunger Bond". Using quantitative data and interviews with investors, we try to understand the causes of the Hunger Bond penalty and ask whether there are lessons for policy makers.

DSGE models in the conduct of policy: use as intended

The use of corruption indicators in sovereign ratings

Description: 

This paper studies the relationship between sovereign ratings and corruption indicators. The paper first shows a strong correlation between ratings issued by the three main rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch) and three commonly used corruption indicators. This correlation is robust to controlling for the fact that corruption is also correlated with level of development, amount of government debt, the current account balance, and an indicator of macroeconomic instability. However, the conditional correlation between corruption and sovereign ratings is not generally robust to controlling for the fact that corruption is correlated with other governance indicators. Moreover, using standard statistical techniques it is not possible to establish whether the observed correlation implies a causal effect going from corruption indicators to sovereign ratings. Next, the paper briefly describes the sovereign rating methodologies of the three main agencies and shows that they incorporate corruption indicators in their rating criteria. There are, however, differences in the way in which corruption indicators affect the ratings issued by the three agencies. While Fitch has well-defined quantitative criteria for incorporating corruption in its rating opinions, Standard & Poor's uses a qualitative assessment of the risks arising from corruption, and the criteria used by Moody's lie somewhere in between.

Does Greece need more official debt relief? If so, how much?

Description: 

Creditor countries and international organizations continue to disagree whether Greece should receive additional official debt relief, and if so how much. This paper first shows that these disagreements can be attributed to competing assumptions about Greece's future capacity to repay, particularly about economic growth and the fiscal primary balance. It next evaluates the plausibility of alternative primary balance assumptions using international evidence about fiscal adjustment experiences. It concludes that primary balance paths required to make Greece's debt sustainable are not plausible and that Greece will therefore require additional debt relief. Finally, the paper shows that the debt relief measures suggested by the Eurogroup in May 2016 (albeit with significant caveats on whether they will in fact be granted or not) could be sufficient to address Greece's sustainability problem, provided the Eurogroup is prepared to accept both very long maturity extensions on European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) debt (to 2080 and beyond) and interest deferrals that could lead to a large rise in EFSF exposure to Greece before it begins to decline. If the Eurogroup wishes to avoid the latter, it will become necessary to either (1) extend the scope of the debt restructuring, (2) lower the interest rates charged by the EFSF significantly below current predictions, or (3) extend European Stability Mechanism (ESM) financing beyond 2018 and delay Greece's return to capital markets for a protracted period.

The changing international linkages of Switzerland: an overview

Description: 

Over the last decade, the economic linkages between Switzerland and the rest of the world have been transformed. First, merchanting and the chemical industry account for an increasing share of international trade, with chemicals exports expanding robustly in recent years despite the European crisis and the strong Swiss franc. Second, the nature of international financial integration has changed. While private investors drove Switzerland's financial flows and net foreign assets before the financial crisis, the foreign reserves accumulation by the Swiss National Bank has been playing a major role since. Third, asset prices and foreign exchange movements led to substantial capital losses in foreign assets which fully absorbed the surplus on the current account. Finally, the crisis has weakened the role of foreign trade as an engine of growth and narrowed it across sectors.

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