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What is behind the priority heuristic?: a mathematical analysis and comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)

Comments on the article by E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig. The authors discuss the priority heuristic, a recent model for decisions under risk. They reanalyze the experimental validity of this approach and discuss how these results compare with cumulative prospect theory, the currently most established model in behavioral economics. They also discuss how general...

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English / 01/01/2008

Risk Prediction: A DWARF-like Approach

A large proportion of the most viable time series models used in empirical finance for density and value-at-risk forecasting are estimated with maximum likelihood methods. By way of its definition, the likelihood implicitly places equal weight on each of the observations in the sample, but this need not be optimal, depending on the extent to which the model and the true data...

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English / 01/01/2008

Uniform saddlepoint approximations for ratios of quadratic forms

Ratios of quadratic forms in correlated normal variables which introduce noncentrality into the quadratic forms are considered. The denominator is assumed to be positive (with probability 1). Various serial correlation estimates such as least-squares, Yule–Walker and Burg, as well as Durbin–Watson statistics, provide important examples of such ratios. The cumulative distribution...

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English / 01/01/2008

Economic growth through the development process

In this paper, I discuss some recent research in the area of economic growth and development emphasizing the endogenous dynamics of policies and organizational forms in a world characterized by credit-market and labor-market imperfections. I present a simple model of technological convergence featuring an endogenous evolution of contractual arrangements. The key assumption is that...

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English / 01/01/2008

Robust Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe Ratio

Applied researchers often test for the difference of the Sharpe ratios of two investmentnstrategies. A very popular tool to this end is the test of Jobson and Korkie (1981), whichnhas been corrected by Memmel (2003). Unfortunately, this test is not valid when returnsnhave tails heavier than the normal distribution or are of time series nature. Instead, wenpropose the use of robust...

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English / 01/01/2008

Are pension fund managers overconfident?

Empirical studies show that people tend to be overconfident about the precision of their knowledge, leading to miscalibration. Consistent with this, we found that on overage the decision makers of Swiss pension plans provide too narrow confidence intervals when asked to estimate the past return of various assets. Their confidence intervals are also systematically too narrow in their...

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English / 01/01/2008

Preferences as human capital: rational choice theories of endogenous preferences and socioeconomic changes

We discuss the theoretical and empirical foundations of modern economic theories of cultural transmission. The importance of cultural factors in shaping economic and social transformations has been the focus of a long-standing debate in social sciences since the XIXth Century. Neoclassical economics has remained at the
marging of this debate. However, there has been a recent...

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English / 01/01/2008

Evaluating lotteries, risks, and risk-mitigation programs

Two experiments were designed to explore the existence of systematic differences in risk perceptions and risk attitudes between Chinese and US participants. The first experiment involved ranking monetary lotteries using measures of perceived riskiness and willingness to pay (WTP). Several simple heuristics were evaluated to predict perceived riskiness and WTP. Using WTP responses,...

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English / 01/01/2008

Der Finanzplatz Zürich 2008

Das Institut für schweizerisches Bankwesen der Universität Zürich hat im Auftrag des Verbandes Zürcherischer Kreditinstitute eine Studie über den Finanzplatz Zürich und dessen Bedeutung für die Kantone Zürich, Zug und Schwyz erstellt.

Die Studie zeigt, dass sich der Finanzplatz Zürich in den letzen Jahren weit über die Zürcher Stadtgrenze hinaus ausgebreitet hat und heute...

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Deutsch / 01/01/2008

Aktienbesitz in der Schweiz 2008

Das Swiss Banking Institute der Universität Zürich präsentiert die Neuauflage der bereits in den Jahren 2000, 2002, 2004 und 2006 durchgeführten Studie "Aktienbesitz in der Schweiz". Die Studie weist den Anteil der direkten und indirekten Aktionäre in der Schweiz nach und zeichnet ein detailliertes Bild des Anlageverhaltens privater Haushalte.

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Deutsch / 01/01/2008

Umfang und Bedeutung des durch die Post abgewickelten Zahlungsverkehrs in der Schweiz

Das Ziel der Studie ist die Darstellung des volkswirtschaftlichen Stellenwertes des Post-Zahlungsverkehrs. Die Arbeit soll als Grundlage für die politischen Entscheide über Inhalt, Ausgestaltung und Regulierung des Grundversorgungsauftrages dienen.

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Deutsch / 01/01/2008

Das Rationale und das Irrationale

Mit Univ.-Prof. Dr.Teodoro D. Cocca, Leiter der Abteilung für Asset Management des Instituts für betriebliche Finanzwirtschaft der Johannes Kepler
Universität Linz, sprach Mag. Gertrud Zoklits über Börse, Marktpsychologie und Private Banking.

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Deutsch / 01/01/2008

Was bringt die Zukunft im Zahlungsverkehr der Post?

Die Vernehmlassung zur Totalrevision der Postgesetzgebung ist abgeschlossen. Im Mittelpunkt der öffentlichen Diskussion steht die Aufhebung des Briefmonopols. Neben dem postalischen Auftrag schreibt das Gesetz auch Leistungen vor, welche die Post im Bereich Zahlungsverkehr erbringen muss. Anfang August erschien eine Studie zu dessen Stellenwert. Eine innovative Forderung ist bislang...

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Deutsch / 01/01/2008

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