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Alternative solutions to the odious debt problem

The doctrine of state succession requires that governments honor the international commitments of their predecessors. Even if a dictator borrows to oppress his own citizens, future generations are required to service the debts and commitments contracted by the dictator. This paper starts by briefly describing possible exceptions to this doctrine by focusing on war and hostile debts....

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English / 12/04/2021

The COVID-19 and bond spreads

Financial markets reacted with a vengeance to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that while the spread of the pandemic is statistically significant in explaining changes to bond spreads, it has little additional explanatory power over variables that capture financial stress. Financial markets reacted as in any international financial crisis by penalizing emerging economies exposing...

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English / 12/04/2021

Income inequality and economic growth: known unknowns

There is an emerging consensus that inequality is adversely related to growth. However, the empirical literature on the links between inequality and growth does not align with this simple narrative, especially because the channels through which inequality may affect growth remain poorly understood.

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English / 30/03/2021

India's lockdown

On March 24, 2020, the Government of India ordered a nationwide lockdown for 21 days as a preventive measure against the spread of the coronavirus. The lockdown - in full force as we write - restricts 1.3 billion people from leaving their homes. Transport services are suspended, educational institutions are closed, and factories are shut down. This is in line with the measures...

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English / 24/04/2020

Political connections and financial constraints: evidence from Central And Eastern Europe

We examine whether political connections ease financial constraints faced by firms. Using firmlevel data from six Central and Eastern European economies, we show that politically connected firms are characterized by: (i) higher leverage, (ii) lower profitability, (iii) lower capitalization, (iv) lower marginal productivity of capital, and (v) lower levels of investment than...

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English / 24/03/2020

When government promise to prioritize public debt: do markets care ?

During the European sovereign debt crisis of 2011-13, some nations faced with rising borrowing costs adopted commitments to treat bondholders as priority claimants. That is, if there was a shortage of funds, bondholders would be paid first. In this article, we analyze the prevalence and variety of these types of commitments and ask whether they impact borrowing costs. We examine a...

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English / 10/03/2020

Inflation expectations: review and evidence

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term...

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English / 10/03/2020

BigTech and the changing structure of financial intermediation

We consider the drivers and implications of the growth of "BigTech" in finance – ie the financial services offerings of technology companies with established presence in the market for digital services. BigTech firms often start with payments. Thereafter, some expand into the provision of credit, insurance and money management products, either directly or in cooperation with...

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English / 06/03/2020

China's offshore corporate dollar bonds

China's bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country's bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China's bond market structure, its unique...

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English / 24/02/2020

Euro area sovereign debt: restructuring options

Countries with large debts stocks are vulnerable to the vagaries of the markets. Confidence crises can arise out of nowhere, constricting access to the markets. Hence, the question arises as to whether these countries should put in place mechanisms that will help them better prepare for the possibility of crisis. In effect, the choice is whether to buy insurance. The cost of buying...

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English / 14/11/2019

Narrativas, políticas y resultados del desarrollo alternativo en la región andina

Desde principios del 2000, muchos países latinoamericanos alcanzaron un notable crecimiento económico acompañado de la reducción de la pobreza y la desigualdad, debido en gran parte a la persistente aplicación del patrón secular de exportación de materias primas. El fin del superciclo de los precios de los las materias primas en 2014 puso en riesgo algunas de estas ganancias en...

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English / 05/11/2019

Alternative development narratives, policies and outcomes in the Andean Region

Since the early 2000s, many Latin American countries achieved remarkable economic growth coupled with poverty and inequality reduction, largely due to the pursuit of a centuries-old pattern of commodity exports. The end of the commodity price super-cycle in 2014 puts some of these development gains in jeopardy, raising anxiety among emerging middle classes wary of slipping back into...

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English / 05/11/2019

Le "fardeau" de la dette publique suisse: éclairages des recherches scientifiques et pistes pour le futur

The Swiss Federal government finances are in an excellent shape: debt is small (and decreasing), and carries a low interest rate. This paper reviews the prospects for the Swiss finances drawing on the recent literature. We argue that the current policy of running surpluses and paying down the debt is inefficient, and propose three alternatives. First, as the interest rate on the debt...

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English / 17/10/2019

The financial development of London in the 17th century revisited: a view from the accounts of the Corporation of London

We study an overlooked episode of financial development in England during the 17th century. We construct a novel, annual series of interest rates paid by the Corporation of London. We show that: interest rates declined by 350 basis points; Interest rates co-moved with Amsterdam: we attribute half of this decline to the integration of the capital markets of London and Amsterdam and...

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English / 01/10/2019

Finance and firm volatility: evidence from Alibaba FinTech Credit in China

The online trading platform Alibaba provides financial technology (FinTech) credit for millions of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Using an internal credit score threshold that governs the allocation of credit, we apply a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to explore the causal effect of credit access on firm volatility. We find that credit access significantly...

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English / 27/09/2019

The impact of environmental regulation on Chinese spatial development

We examine the relationship between environmental regulation and spatial development in China. Exploiting changes in national pollution standards for three industries, ammonia, paper and cement, we measure the impact of environmental regulation on industry productivity. Our results suggest that national pollution standards do not affect industry productivity, but they reallocate...

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English / 19/09/2019

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