In this paper, we argue that the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on the exchange rate depends on the fiscal regime. A contractionary monetary (expansionary fiscal) shock can lead to a depreciation, rather than an appreciation, of the domestic currency if debt is not backed by future fiscal surpluses. We look at daily movements of the Brazilian real around policy announcements and find strong support for the existence of two regimes with opposite signs. The unconventional response of the exchange rate occurs when fiscal fundamentals are deteriorating and markets' concern about debt sustainability is rising. To rationalize these findings, we propose a model of sovereign default in which foreign investors are subject to higher haircuts and fiscal policy shifts between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. In the latter, sovereign default risk drives the currency risk premium and affects how the exchange rate reacts to policy shocks.
We combine real estate data with various types of crime data using time and geospatial information to detect discontinuities in transaction densities and pricing around crime events in Rochester, NY. Discontinuities in transaction densities invalidate causal inference for price responses implied by the regression discontinuity design (RDD) approach. However, these discontinuities also capture the liquidity response to crimes and, together with the commonly emphasized price response, provide a richer picture of how crime affects housing valuation. A calibrated match-and-bargain model reveals that house valuations decrease between 6% and 25% after a crime, depending on the type of crime. These predictions are manifolds of the estimated effect on prices documented in this paper and in the literature. The welfare effects of crime are not uniform across market participants and can elicit considerable disappointment to uninformed buyers that move into a high-crime neighborhood.
