We investigate the impact of the quality of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports on sell-side analyst forecast accuracy. The sample comprises 506 large companies that were selected according to the CSR-Sustainability Monitor, which was used to measure the quality of CSR reports issued in 2012 by the members listed in Fortune 500 US and the Global Index. Forecast error is calculated for the forecast horizons of the same fiscal year and one fiscal year ahead. A multiple-regression model showed a negative correlation of CSR quality and forecast accuracy in both forecast horizons, which was significant for companies domiciled in the stakeholders’ region of Western Europe. A probit regression model showed that the probability of overestimating earnings and thus making overly optimistic forecasts was higher in companies that issued CSR reports of better quality, which was significant for the one year ahead forecast horizons of both Western European companies and companies domiciled in the shareholder-oriented region of North America.
Haematopoietic cell transplant activity in the 28 countries comprising Latin America is poorly defined. We conducted a voluntary survey of members of the Latin American Bone Marrow Transplantation Group regarding transplant activity 2009-2012. Collated responses were compared with data of transplant rates from the Worldwide Network for Blood and Marrow Transplantation for other geographic regions. Several socio-economic variables were analysed to determine correlations with transplant rates. In total, 94 teams from 12 countries reported 11 519 transplants including 7033 autotransplants and 4486 allotransplants. Annual activity increased from 2517 transplants in 2009 to 3263 in 2012, a 30% increase. Median transplants rate (transplant per million inhabitants) in 2012 was 64 (autotransplants, median 40; allotransplants, median 24). This rate is substantially lower than that in North America and European regions (482 and 378) but higher than that in the Eastern Mediterranean and Asia Pacific regions (30 and 45). However, the Latin America transplant rate is 5-8-fold lower than that in America and Europe, suggesting a need to increase transplant availability. Transplant team density in Latin America (teams per million population; 1.8) is 3-4-fold lower than that in North America (6.2) or Europe (7.6). Within Latin America, there is substantial diversity in transplant rates by country partially explained by diverse socio-economic variables including per capita gross national income, health expenditure and physician density. These data should help inform future health-care policy in Latin America.
Highlights
•One third of HLA-identical sibling donor transplant recipients never ever develop any graft-versus-host disease
•This rate of no graft-versus-host disease is significantly higher with male donors in female recipients
•Factors associated with no graft-versus-host disease should become a target of precision medicine
•Prediction of no graft-versus-host disease could become a decision-guiding tool for early transplantations
•Such an approach could spare immunosuppression, improve survival, and reduce costs
Data on 68 146 hematopoietic stem cell transplants (HSCTs) (53% autologous and 47% allogeneic) gathered by 1566 teams from 77 countries and reported through their regional transplant organizations were analyzed by main indication, donor type and stem cell source for the year 2012. With transplant rates ranging from 0.1 to 1001 per 10 million inhabitants, more HSCTs were registered from unrelated 16 433 donors than related 15 493 donors. Grafts were collected from peripheral blood (66%), bone marrow (24%; mainly non-malignant disorders) and cord blood (10%). Compared with 2006, an increase of 46% total (57% allogeneic and 38% autologous) was observed. Growth was due to an increase in reporting teams (18%) and median transplant activity/team (from 38 to 48 HSCTs/team). An increase of 167% was noted in mismatched/haploidentical family HSCT. A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis revealed the global perspective of WBMT to be its major strength and identified potential to be the key professional body for patients and authorities. The limited data collection remains its major weakness and threat. In conclusion, global HSCT grows over the years without plateauing (allogeneic>autologous) and at different rates in the four World Health Organization regions. Major increases were observed in allogeneic, haploidentical HSCT and, to a lesser extent, in cord blood transplantation.
Our findings show achievements and high unmet needs and give guidance for decisions; to grant access for patients, to provide a donor infrastructure, and to limit overuse by defining risk and region adapted indications for HSCT as an efficient and cost-effective approach for life-threatening, potentially curable diseases.
Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a lifesaving expensive medical procedure. Hence, more transplants are performed in more affluent countries. The impact of economic factors on patient outcome is less defined. We analyzed retrospectively a defined cohort of 102,549 patients treated with an allogeneic (N = 37,542; 37%) or autologous (N = 65,007; 63%) HSCT. They were transplanted by one of 404 HSCT centers in 25 European countries between 1999 and 2006. We searched for associations between center-specific microeconomic or country-specific macroeconomic factors and outcome. Center patient-volume and center program-duration were significantly and systematically associated with improved survival after allogeneic HSCT (HR 0·87; 0·84-0·91 per 10 patients; p < 0·0001; HR 0·90;0·85-0·90 per 10 years; p < 0·001) and autologous HSCT (HR 0·91;0·87-0·96 per 10 patients; p < 0·001; HR 0·93;0·87-0·99 per 10 years; p = 0·02). The product of Health Care Expenditures by Gross National Income/capita was significantly associated in multivariate analysis with all endpoints (R(2) = 18%; for relapse free survival) after allogeneic HSCT. Data indicate that country- and center-specific economic factors are associated with distinct, significant, systematic, and clinically relevant effects on survival after HSCT. They impact on center expertise in long-term disease and complication management. It is likely that these findings apply to other forms of complex treatments.
Power-to-gas (P2G) is a technology that converts electrical power to gas fuels like methane for storage in the natural gas grid. Due to the low efficiency, the production of synthetic methane is only profitable if electricity is sufficiently cheap. However, P2G facilities are flexible consumers and can benefit from short-term price fluctuations on the electricity spot market. We use a real option approach to assess the profitability of an investment in a P2G facility, taking into account the uncertainty of power prices, gas prices and future investment costs.
We develop infinitesimally robust statistical procedures for general diffusion processes. We first prove existence and uniqueness of the times series influence function of conditionally unbiased M-estimators for ergodic and stationary diffusions, under weak conditions on the (martingale) estimating function used. We then characterize the robustness of M-estimators for diffusions and derive a class of conditionally unbiased optimal robust estimators. To compute these estimators, we propose a general algorithm, which exploits approximation methods for diffusions in the computation of the robust estimating function. Monte Carlo simulation shows a good performance of our robust estimators and an application to the robust estimation of the exchange rate dynamics within a target zone illustrates the methodology in a real-data application
We develop a discrete-time stochastic volatility option pricing model, which exploits the information contained in high-frequency data. The Realized Volatility (RV) is used as a proxy of the unobservable log-returns volatility. We model its dynamics by a simple but effective (pseudo) long memory process, the Heterogeneous Auto-Regressive Gamma with Leverage (HARGL) process. Both the discrete-time specification and the use of the RV allow us to easily estimate the model using observed historical data. Assuming a standard, exponentially affine stochastic discount factor, we obtain a fully analytic change of measure. An extensive empirical analysis of S&P 500 index options illustrates that our approach significantly outperforms competing time-varying (i.e. GARCH-type) and stochastic volatility pricing models. The pricing improvement can be ascribed to: (i) the direct use of the RV, which provides a precise and fast-adapting measure of the unobserved underlying volatility; and (ii) the specification of our model, which, on the one hand, is able to accurately reproduce the volatility persistence and, on the other hand, provides the necessary smoothing of the noise present in the RV dynamics.
