This paper estimates the effective market-access granted under NAFTA in textiles and apparel by combining two approaches. First, we estimate the effect of tariff preferences and rules of origin on the border prices of Mexican final goods exported to the US and of US intermediates exported to Mexico. We find that one third of the estimated rise in the border price of Mexican apparel products compensates for the cost of complying with NAFTA's rules of origin. We also find that the price of US intermediates exported to Mexico is raised significantly by the presence of rules of origin downstream. Second, simulations from a structural model inspired by our econometric estimates, suggest little market-access improvement for Mexican exporters.
The “distance effect” measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been to be rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the “distance puzzle”. We review the evidence and explanations. Using an extensive data set of 124 countries over the period 1970-2005, we confirm the existence of this puzzle and identify that it only applies to poor countries (the bottom third in per capita income terms in our sample—i.e. the low-income countries according to the World Bank classification, 2006). We show that this group has intensified trade with closer partners and have chosen new partners that are closer than existing partners, leading to a regionalization of their trade at both extensive and intensive margins (regionalization of trade is absent for the other countries). Combining several methods on cross-section and panel estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate that low-income countries exhibit a significant rising distance effect on their trade around 18% between 1970 and 2006 while there is no more distance “puzzle” for trade within richer countries (the top third in per capita income terms in our sample). We dispose of several previous explanations of the puzzle, and note that this regionalization could well be a reflection of both increased integration of this group of countries in the world economy or a greater marginalization.
Once again the Doha Round negotiators are struggling to reach an agreement, this time by mid-December on a “plan B” package that would give increased market access to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the form of duty-free-quota free (DFQF) access accompanied by simplified rules of origin. Estimating ‘effective market access' to the two largest ‘preference-givers', the US and EU preferences, this note shows that remaining market access left for the LDCs is negligible at around 3 percent in the EU but negative in the US (because textiles are excluded from the Generalized System of Preferences). An accompanying note assesses that the administrative costs that have to be borne to meet the origin requirements to obtain preferential status in OECD markets is likely to wipe out any remaining effective market access computed here, implying negligible market access to be obtained under “plan B”.
This paper investigates the dynamic effects of rainfall shocks on agroecosystems productivity. The analysis estimates a panel data model of cereal production in southern Italy. It documents the adverse effects of a reduction in rainfall on the agroecosystem productivity both in the short run and the long run. It investigates how increasing the level of spatial crop diversity can mitigate this negative impact. The empirical evidence shows how higher diversity supports resilience and maintains the system productivity under challenging climatic conditions.
Le but de cet article est de comprendre pourquoi le taux de chômage à Genève est plus élevé que dans le reste de la Suisse. Pour expliquer les différences de taux de chômage cantonales, nous utilisons une approche basée sur l'analyse des entrées et de sorties dans et taux de chômage et la durée du chômage individuelle des sorts entre les cantons. Nous trouvons d'abord que le taux de chômage élevé à Genève est principalement due à un taux de sortie du chômage faible. Nous examinons ensuite l'effet des caractéristiques de la population au chômage sur la durée prévue de leurs périodes de chômage. Nos résultats indiquent que les personnes sans emploi à Genève ont des caractéristiques très différentes individuels que la population des chômeurs dans le reste de la Suisse; ces différences contribuent à allonger la durée du chômage à Genève. Ainsi, le taux de chômage élevé à Genève est principalement due à la longue durée des périodes de chômage expliquées par les caractéristiques particulières de la piscine de chômeurs dans ce canton et par le fait que l'impact de ces caractéristiques défavorables est encore plus négative à Genève que dans le reste de la Suisse.
We test if issuers of asset- and mortgage-backed securities receive rating favors from agencies with which they maintain strong business relationships. Controlling for issuer fixed effects and a large set of credit risk determinants, we show that agencies publish better ratings for those issuers that provide them with more bilateral securitization business. Such rating favors are larger for very complex structured debt deals and for deals issued during the credit boom period. Our analysis is based on a new deal-level rating statistic that accounts for the full distribution of tranche ratings below the AAA cut-off point of a structured debt deal.
