Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement

Structural conditions for novelty: the introduction of new environmental clauses to the trade regime complex

Description: 

When do parties introduce novel clauses to a system of contracts or treaties? While important research has investigated how clauses diffuse once introduced, few empirical studies address their initial introduction. Drawing on network theory, this paper argues that novel clauses are introduced when agreements are concluded in certain structures of earlier agreements and the clauses they include. This paper demonstrates this argument using the example of 282 different environmental clauses introduced into the trade regime complex through 630 trade agreements concluded between 1945 and 2016. We find that trade agreements are more likely to introduce novelties when they involve parties with a diversity of experience with prior environmental clauses and introduce more novelties when more parties are less constrained by prior trade agreements between them. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, power asymmetry between the negotiating parties is not statistically significant.

Preferential trade agreements and multilateral liberalization

The motive to borrow

BigTech and the changing structure of financial intermediation

Description: 

We consider the drivers and implications of the growth of "BigTech" in finance – ie the financial services offerings of technology companies with established presence in the market for digital services. BigTech firms often start with payments. Thereafter, some expand into the provision of credit, insurance and money management products, either directly or in cooperation with financial institution partners. Focusing on credit, we show that BigTech firms lend more in countries with less competitive banking sectors and less stringent bank regulation. Analysing the case of Argentina, we find support for the hypothesis that BigTech lenders, by acquiring a vast amount of non-traditional information, have an advantage in credit assessment relative to a traditional credit bureau. They also serve unbanked borrowers, and may have an advantage in contact enforcement. It is too early to judge the extent of BigTech’s eventual advance into the provision of financial services. However, the early evidence allows us to pose pertinent questions that bear on their impact on financial stability and overall economic welfare.

Does leverage predict delinquency in consumer lending?: evidence from Peru

Description: 

This paper examines to what extent household leverage—as measured by the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio—predicts delinquency in Peru’s consumer credit market. A model is estimated to assess the relation between delinquency and the DTI ratio. The initial and current DTI ratios are assessed as delinquency predictors. The results confirm that the current DTI ratio is effective for predicting delinquency. This evidence supports its use in financial regulation to improve household credit risk assessment and control.

Globotics and development: when manufacturing is jobless and services are tradable

Description: 

Globalization and robotics (globotics) are transforming the world economy at an explosive pace. While much of the literature has focused on rich nations, the changes are quite likely to affect developing nations in important ways. The premise of the paper - which should be regarded as a thought-piece - is based on an extreme thought experiment. What does development look like when digitech has rendered manufacturing jobless and many services freely traded? Our conclusion is that the service-led development path may become the norm rather than the exception; think India, not China. Since success in the service sector is based on quite different factors than success in manufacturing, development strategies and mindsets may have to change. This is an optimistic conclusion since it suggests that developing nations can directly export the source of their comparative advantage - low-cost labor -without having first to make goods with that labor.

China's offshore corporate dollar bonds

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China's bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country's bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China's bond market structure, its unique characteristics, and areas where reforms are needed. This volume comprehensively analyzes the different segments of China's bond market, from sovereign, policy bank, and credit bonds, to the rapidly growing local government bond market. It also covers bond futures, green bonds, and asset-backed securities, as well as China's offshore market, which has played a major role in onshore market development.

WTO dispute settlement post 2019: what to expect ?

Description: 

What does the imminent demise of the WTO Appellate Body (AB) mean for the settlement of ongoing and future trade disputes? This editorial discusses two 'unlikely solutions', at least in the short term: the US lifts its veto on AB appointments; a WTO organ unlocks the impasse. Appeals pending on 10 December 2019 will most likely be carried-over pursuant to (contested) Rule 15 of the AB Working Procedures. For panel reports released after that date, four main scenarios emerge: (i) appeals 'into the void' blocking the panel report, (ii) no appeal ex post, or ex ante no appeal pacts, (iii) Article 25 appeal arbitration, (iv) 'floating' panel reports (interim or final), neither adopted, nor appealed/blocked. The transformation fromGATT toWTOtook half a century. Regular veto rights in the settlement of trade disputesmay be back in amatter of months. It is one thing to lose theAB, quite another to return to pre-WTOdispute settlement where panel outcomes are not automatically binding and power relations play a considerably greater role. At the same time, it would be wrong to equate a (temporary?) return to GATT-style dispute settlement with the collapse of a rules-basedWTO system.

Is globalization finally re-balancing ? Novel ways of levelling the playing field for labour

Building legal capacity for a more inclusive globalization: introduction and summary of findings

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