Publications des institutions partenaires

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Risky utilities

We develop a theory of "risky utilities", i.e., private firms that manage an infrastructure for public service and that may be tempted to engage in excessively risky activities, such as reducing maintenance expenditures (at the risk of provoking a breakdown of the system) or in speculation (at the risk of incurring massive losses it cannot bear). These risky utilities…

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English / 01/06/2016

Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task

The most common test for overconfidence in the form of miscalibration—the Interval Production task (IP)—is based on the assumption that people internalize requested confidence levels. We demonstrate experimentally that decision makers’ perceived confidence is, however, unaffected by variations in the requested confidence level. In addition, we find large heterogeneity in perceived…

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English / 20/05/2016

The Impact of Merger Legislation on Bank Mergers

We find that stricter merger control legislation increases abnormal announcement returns of targets in bank mergers by 7 percentage points. Analyzing potential explanations for this result, we document an increase in the pre-merger profitability of targets, a decrease in the size of acquirers and a decreasing share of transactions in which banks are acquired by other banks. Other…

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English / 18/05/2016

Foreign Ownership and Market Power in Banking: Evidence from a World Sample

The nexus between ownership and competition in the banking sector is a major concern to policymakers around the world but one that is rarely comprehensively examined. For 131 countries and 13 years we match bank ownership with over 50,000 bank-year estimates of individual bank market power. We find that ownership does not explain market power at the individual bank level. However, at…

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English / 01/04/2016

Endogenous trading in Credit Default Swaps

We introduce a real options model in order to quantify the moral hazard impact of credit default swap (CDS) positions on the corporate default probabilities. Moral hazard is widely addressed in the insurance literature, where the insured agent may become less cautious about preventing the risk from occurring. Importantly, with CDS the moral hazard problem may be magnified since one…

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English / 01/04/2016

Québécoisation method for the pricing of Parisian options with jump risk

In this paper, a new technique for pricing of European and American Parisian options, that we call the québécoisation method, is developed. We study the pricing of Parisian options in a hyper-exponential jump-diffusion model using the double Laplace-Carson transform with respect to the time to maturity and the residual Parisian time (time to expiration of the Parisian window) of the…

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English / 10/02/2016

Interconnectedness as a source of uncertainty in systemic risk

Financial networks have shown to be important in understanding systemic events in credit markets. In this paper, we investigate how the structure of those networks can affect the capacity of regulators to assess the level of systemic risk. We introduce a model to compute the individual and systemic probability of default in a system of banks connected in a generic network of credit…

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English / 02/02/2016

Collateralization, bank loan rates, and monitoring

We show that collateral plays an important role in the design of debt contracts, the provision of credit, and the incentives of lenders to monitor borrowers. Using a unique data set from a large bank containing timely assessments of collateral values, we find that the bank responded to a legal reform that exogenously reduced collateral values by increasing interest rates, tightening…

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English / 01/01/2016

Decoding Financial Networks: Hidden Dangers and Effective Policies

Two changes have ushered in a new era of analyzing the complex and interdependent world surrounding us. One is related to the increased influx of data, furnishing the raw material for this revolution that is now starting to impact economic thinking. The second change is due to a subtler reason: a paradigm shift in the analysis of complex systems.

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English / 01/01/2016

Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions

Building on previous works on business fluctuations, we model the propagation of financial distress in a network of regions, each populated by heterogeneous interacting firms and banks. In order to diversify risk, firm sell goods outside their own region and borrow from banks located there. However, this results in ties across regions which propagate financial distress across…

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English / 01/01/2016

DebtRank and the network of leverage

The interconnectedness of the financial system is one of the main factors contributing to systemic risk. The financial crisis has shown how the network of intrafinancial exposures may, in times of systemic distress, amplify initially small shocks. In this work, the authors build on the DebtRank methodology by introducing the notion of a network of leverage and propose a two-round…

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English / 01/01/2016

Complexity theory and financial regulation

Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 crisis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make sense of economic and financial markets. Concepts, such as tipping points, networks, contagion, feedback, and resilience…

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English / 01/01/2016

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